NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 20 - The Gang All Get Injured

Cap'n Ranta wrote:

Definitely hear you and others on trades being limited. But that’s kinda the reason I think it’s so important. Especially at this point of the season to prioritise your cows.

Sometimes you’ll be unlucky and the cow won’t fit the positional cover needs. I need two WFBs this week as I lost 3 of the 4 I owned (Walsh, Tuaupiki, Papy). I’m still considering Blaize and playing with 16.

I think it’s really important to remember you need about $13m to build a final 17. and yes there’s a balance of points vs cash generated but you only get two trades a week.

The more certainty you want the more trades you have to spend generating that cash.

I’m certainly not trying to imply Blaize is a must have. It’s pretty rare to have someone like Galvin who has high fantasy upside and reasonable long term job security. Just consider the two:

Luki is due back in 5 weeks.  
Moses is due back in 8.

To get 150k:
Fine needs to get close to 40 point average. That’s maybe 5 points less than I expect from Nanai.
Blaize needs a 29 point average.  That’s 3 points more than Kane Elgey.

Certainty on role and pedigree costs flexibility (are you committing one of your two trades), cash gen (upside) and roster churn (need to spend trades quicker as they have less time in viable fantasy roles).

I know people are struggling to field a full squad this week or have mountains of cash from selling Haas and Cleary so I’m not saying swing at every cow but this isn’t SuperCoach with delayed price changes.

It's more about realising when cows have  asymmetric risk profiles.Team balance in Not having too many low upside cows on the bench and future flexibility(most people will have a lot of mid rangers to upgrade in a few weeks (Smithies, Rapana, Burbo, Strange, Sitilli, Wong, Piakura, Kris, Flanagan, Hutchinson, Levi, Hughes, Chan etc.) so picking cows just one week earlier means making more money and having better future flexibility.

It can also bring a dud cow that adds to that huge list so it’s not foolproof but the key point I’ve rambled for too long on is certainty has a cost. Just be more willing to consider cows a week earlier as you may realise it’s less risky and your range of outcomes is better and future weeks can be easier even if this week is objectively worse.

robelgordo wrote:I reckon Brown without Moses is a bit overblown. Small sample sizes, 3 games in 2020 driving the average

Camo123 wrote:

Could Niukore back on the bench steal mins

Cap'n Ranta wrote:

Definitely hear you and others on trades being limited. But that’s kinda the reason I think it’s so important. Especially at this point of the season to prioritise your cows.

Sometimes you’ll be unlucky and the cow won’t fit the positional cover needs. I need two WFBs this week as I lost 3 of the 4 I owned (Walsh, Tuaupiki, Papy). I’m still considering Blaize and playing with 16.

I think it’s really important to remember you need about $13m to build a final 17. and yes there’s a balance of points vs cash generated but you only get two trades a week.

The more certainty you want the more trades you have to spend generating that cash.

I’m certainly not trying to imply Blaize is a must have. It’s pretty rare to have someone like Galvin who has high fantasy upside and reasonable long term job security. Just consider the two:

Luki is due back in 5 weeks.  
Moses is due back in 8.

To get 150k:
Fine needs to get close to 40 point average. That’s maybe 5 points less than I expect from Nanai.
Blaize needs a 29 point average.  That’s 3 points more than Kane Elgey.

Certainty on role and pedigree costs flexibility (are you committing one of your two trades), cash gen (upside) and roster churn (need to spend trades quicker as they have less time in viable fantasy roles).

I know people are struggling to field a full squad this week or have mountains of cash from selling Haas and Cleary so I’m not saying swing at every cow but this isn’t SuperCoach with delayed price changes.

It's more about realising when cows have  asymmetric risk profiles.Team balance in Not having too many low upside cows on the bench and future flexibility(most people will have a lot of mid rangers to upgrade in a few weeks (Smithies, Rapana, Burbo, Strange, Sitilli, Wong, Piakura, Kris, Flanagan, Hutchinson, Levi, Hughes, Chan etc.) so picking cows just one week earlier means making more money and having better future flexibility.

It can also bring a dud cow that adds to that huge list so it’s not foolproof but the key point I’ve rambled for too long on is certainty has a cost. Just be more willing to consider cows a week earlier as you may realise it’s less risky and your range of outcomes is better and future weeks can be easier even if this week is objectively worse.

Welsh Mafia wrote:

Declaring Talagi as a "must have cow" because you're on him and likeling him to Galvin isn't accurate.

We had a week to see Galvin in the halves, and he was great. Those of us that missed him didn't by choice, and are paying the 70k+ now.

Talagi is effectively 2 weeks behind Galvin, waiting and seeing how he goes in the halves isn't missing a "must have cow", it's wanting a eye test first. If he goes hard and then next week he's not picked up, then you'd be missing the must have cow, definitely not this week.

Yes I could be made to eat my words is he goes well, but as of right now he's a completely unknown commodity in the halves and most people have about 7 different fires!

the_great_wobbler wrote:

Chan was also keeping Blore out and it took an injury for him to get the start. It could be that Blore holds it, could be that Blore was just doing a job on the edge and Chan comes straight back in next week but I think it's hard to say for certain.

Most people would have Piakura as a trade out anyway, may as well hold Chan a week and see come TLT R5?

Cap'n Ranta wrote:

Definitely hear you and others on trades being limited. But that’s kinda the reason I think it’s so important. Especially at this point of the season to prioritise your cows.

Sometimes you’ll be unlucky and the cow won’t fit the positional cover needs. I need two WFBs this week as I lost 3 of the 4 I owned (Walsh, Tuaupiki, Papy). I’m still considering Blaize and playing with 16.

I think it’s really important to remember you need about $13m to build a final 17. and yes there’s a balance of points vs cash generated but you only get two trades a week.

The more certainty you want the more trades you have to spend generating that cash.

I’m certainly not trying to imply Blaize is a must have. It’s pretty rare to have someone like Galvin who has high fantasy upside and reasonable long term job security. Just consider the two:

Luki is due back in 5 weeks.  
Moses is due back in 8.

To get 150k:
Fine needs to get close to 40 point average. That’s maybe 5 points less than I expect from Nanai.
Blaize needs a 29 point average.  That’s 3 points more than Kane Elgey.

Certainty on role and pedigree costs flexibility (are you committing one of your two trades), cash gen (upside) and roster churn (need to spend trades quicker as they have less time in viable fantasy roles).

I know people are struggling to field a full squad this week or have mountains of cash from selling Haas and Cleary so I’m not saying swing at every cow but this isn’t SuperCoach with delayed price changes.

It's more about realising when cows have  asymmetric risk profiles.Team balance in Not having too many low upside cows on the bench and future flexibility(most people will have a lot of mid rangers to upgrade in a few weeks (Smithies, Rapana, Burbo, Strange, Sitilli, Wong, Piakura, Kris, Flanagan, Hutchinson, Levi, Hughes, Chan etc.) so picking cows just one week earlier means making more money and having better future flexibility.

It can also bring a dud cow that adds to that huge list so it’s not foolproof but the key point I’ve rambled for too long on is certainty has a cost. Just be more willing to consider cows a week earlier as you may realise it’s less risky and your range of outcomes is better and future weeks can be easier even if this week is objectively worse.

BCT05 wrote:


Disagree, even ignoring the 2020 games the average is great. 55-60 average feels very much on the cards which is very nice for $675k.

And in 2020 he was playing next to Field who did very little kicking. Whereas 2021 onwards without Moses he was mostly playing with Arthur who did a fair chunk of kicking.

I have no idea if Talagi has much of a kicking game but I was assuming not (anyone have any insight on that?) and would think BA would keep it simple for him by keeping the majority of kicking with Brown anyway.

mattnz wrote:
Blore was a late addition to storm. Didn't get the full preseason learning their systems with the rest of the team,so makes sense that he was held back a couple of weeks. Watch the Bellamy interview and he is in no doubt on their roles moving forward. In 2 separate interviews now he has said chan is actually best in mid and said Blore is his edge in 1 of those interviews.

my tv broke wrote:

you're doing that thing where you're just hearing things you want to hear.

the chan middle stuff was two weeks ago and then he played 80 mins on edge a week later..

if you want to take literally everything bellamy said in press conference as gospel then you'd better email him to tell him blore actually played on the left, not the right.

no one really knows who'll start there next week, wouldnt surprise me if chan is back, or blore holds the spot. trading chan is probably the right move but would be annoying if he starts next week

mattnz wrote:
Watch the 2nd interview in 2 weeks when Bellamy has said chan is a mid, then comment

Snatchpato wrote:
I agree with this in principle, but am not doing it this week. My reasons if anyone is in a similar boat (and to play devil's advocate):

I feel like Fog is going to be like SJ last year. Every man and his dog jumping on but I don't because reasons kept popping up. All of a sudden he's 800k and I can't get him and am missing 60 points every other week. Hence, I'm trading Cleary to Fog.
I feel like I always avoid players I want (for fun reasons) because "I should be generating cash". My logic is I'm very unlikely to win anyway, so why not pick players I want to watch when I can. Hence, I'm trading Piakura to Turbo.

Finally: there's always going to be another cash cow

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Kinda tempted by all of the KPP love. Not really someone I had though of till now but looks like an option. One trade pretty much locked in with Wong to Galvin.

Second trade would be Chan to KPP/Talagi/Brown or just hope Hughes/Levi have a 30+ in them and maybe save a trade

The Goat Boys wrote:Sorry if I missed it.

What was the official word on piakura injury and how many weeks he may be out for?

The Goat Boys wrote:Sorry if I missed it.

What was the official word on piakura injury and how many weeks he may be out for?