NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 20 - The Gang All Get Injured

Tookey wrote:What are everyone's captain choices without Cleary?

Thumbs up: Tedesco
Down: Turbo

Turbo against the Dragons could be a good shot but Teddy is on fire to start the season.

Fixtures aren’t everything but if you’re captaining a back I’d be doing every day and twice on Sunday’s against Dragons instead of Panthers

the_great_wobbler wrote:

Chan was also keeping Blore out and it took an injury for him to get the start. It could be that Blore holds it, could be that Blore was just doing a job on the edge and Chan comes straight back in next week but I think it's hard to say for certain.

Most people would have Piakura as a trade out anyway, may as well hold Chan a week and see come TLT R5?

Yeah I think if people trade Chan this week and then he's named next week with the amount of issues on the table, with his BE of 7 you'd be kicking yourselves. EVen if it's a bench role, still a little extra cash and a green dot..

I think Talagi probably goes well enough to make his cash and all and I'm probably getting him, but I also don't think it would be the end of the world if you did "miss" him. A ~30 average seems a reasonable expectation (in alignment with a number of other non-dominant halves).

The risk is also that BA decides its not working after a week or two and he loses the spot, that is the last thing we need amongst the carnage. It's always hard when you have never seen a player play in the position before.

Seems not many getting Hynes this week?

Initially I kind of wrote the option off with the bye upcoming next week but the more I have looked at it the more replacing the 1A option in fantasy with the 1B option just makes sense. Would just not get Cleary back in until post origin so saves a trade there, and having that clear cut captaincy option is valuable. If Hynes doesn't play origin then saves another trade as well.

Could wait until after the bye but might just go early and hope for a nice captaincy score this week. I can just see making the plans for getting him after the bye being blown away by some new fires by then.

Asi is also still at the Eels, howcome he didn't get the call up?

BCT05 wrote:Seems not many getting Hynes this week?

Initially I kind of wrote the option off with the bye upcoming next week but the more I have looked at it the more replacing the 1A option in fantasy with the 1B option just makes sense. Would just not get Cleary back in until post origin so saves a trade there, and having that clear cut captaincy option is valuable. If Hynes doesn't play origin then saves another trade as well.

Could wait until after the bye but might just go early and hope for a nice captaincy score this week. I can just see making the plans for getting him after the bye being blown away by some new fires by then.

I’m like 40-50 pages behind and will probably never catch up, but yes, thinking Hynes

Just trades in (c)arrigan instead but doesn’t feel as good

Only worry with Hynes is the forward pack isn’t going forward this week. But on historic average I reckon 2 weeks of Hynes plus whatever replacement player and captain in R5 outscores every other captain option. Then could hold anyway.

I would probably just get Hynes but my most important H2H of the year is next week against my shit talking workmate who has him so I need all the advantage I can get. Probably a dumb reason but I want to maintain my dominance.

Welsh Mafia wrote:Asi is also still at the Eels, howcome he didn't get the call up?

Played the first two games in the halves in NSW Cup this season but since Talagi got called up last week they have actually shifted him to fullback. Doesn't seem like the kind of thing you'd do if he was a chance to get the call up in the halves so must not be in favour.

TU Teddy
TD Fogdog
Alternative: KPP

Locked on Api as the other trade at the moment.

BCT05 wrote:Seems not many getting Hynes this week?

Initially I kind of wrote the option off with the bye upcoming next week but the more I have looked at it the more replacing the 1A option in fantasy with the 1B option just makes sense. Would just not get Cleary back in until post origin so saves a trade there, and having that clear cut captaincy option is valuable. If Hynes doesn't play origin then saves another trade as well.

Could wait until after the bye but might just go early and hope for a nice captaincy score this week. I can just see making the plans for getting him after the bye being blown away by some new fires by then.

I'm going with Hynes. No Haas means the gap between captaincy options is even larger.

I'll deal with the bye next week when everyone is still scrambling for a captaincy option

Milchcow wrote:

Its true about taking a risk. And I'm glad I got Koro and Galvin in before they'd played a game for that reason

But we don't have unlimited trades, there's only 2 we can make this week and if we bring Blaize in that means that Fine or Dylan Brown or someone isn't coming in instead.

Finefeuiaki has a similar BE and job security, but arguable better point scoring capability

Blaize is playing an unknown position, and we're just guessing/hoping what he'll score at. He's certainly tempting though - and if someone had the balls to ditch Cleary for Blaize + another cheapie then it could potentially set up their cash flow for weeks to come.

Definitely hear you and others on trades being limited. But that’s kinda the reason I think it’s so important. Especially at this point of the season to prioritise your cows.

Sometimes you’ll be unlucky and the cow won’t fit the positional cover needs. I need two WFBs this week as I lost 3 of the 4 I owned (Walsh, Tuaupiki, Papy). I’m still considering Blaize and playing with 16.

I think it’s really important to remember you need about $13m to build a final 17. and yes there’s a balance of points vs cash generated but you only get two trades a week.

The more certainty you want the more trades you have to spend generating that cash.

I’m certainly not trying to imply Blaize is a must have. It’s pretty rare to have someone like Galvin who has high fantasy upside and reasonable long term job security. Just consider the two:

Luki is due back in 5 weeks.
Moses is due back in 8.

To get 150k:
Fine needs to get close to 40 point average. That’s maybe 5 points less than I expect from Nanai.
Blaize needs a 29 point average. That’s 3 points more than Kane Elgey.

Certainty on role and pedigree costs flexibility (are you committing one of your two trades), cash gen (upside) and roster churn (need to spend trades quicker as they have less time in viable fantasy roles).

I know people are struggling to field a full squad this week or have mountains of cash from selling Haas and Cleary so I’m not saying swing at every cow but this isn’t SuperCoach with delayed price changes.

It's more about realising when cows have asymmetric risk profiles.Team balance in Not having too many low upside cows on the bench and future flexibility(most people will have a lot of mid rangers to upgrade in a few weeks (Smithies, Rapana, Burbo, Strange, Sitilli, Wong, Piakura, Kris, Flanagan, Hutchinson, Levi, Hughes, Chan etc.) so picking cows just one week earlier means making more money and having better future flexibility.

It can also bring a dud cow that adds to that huge list so it’s not foolproof but the key point I’ve rambled for too long on is certainty has a cost. Just be more willing to consider cows a week earlier as you may realise it’s less risky and your range of outcomes is better and future weeks can be easier even if this week is objectively worse.

Ok on Cleary -> Hynes and Piakura -> Talagi

Holding Kini for some reason, who knows, maybe he gives me a loop option with a late callup

Edit: And just realised he’s not even in the 22 lol

get this our good mate simon templar in vsdt has 9 players out that is very unlucky & we think we have problems

In saying that about Hynes I do also really want Dylbags... so that will be my decision to make.

Pippy Longstocking was a good watch. Recommend.

These schoolteachers are an ornery bunch ain't they.

Welcome to my country !

I reckon Brown without Moses is a bit overblown. Small sample sizes, 3 games in 2020 driving the average

BCT05 wrote:Seems not many getting Hynes this week?

Initially I kind of wrote the option off with the bye upcoming next week but the more I have looked at it the more replacing the 1A option in fantasy with the 1B option just makes sense. Would just not get Cleary back in until post origin so saves a trade there, and having that clear cut captaincy option is valuable. If Hynes doesn't play origin then saves another trade as well.

Could wait until after the bye but might just go early and hope for a nice captaincy score this week. I can just see making the plans for getting him after the bye being blown away by some new fires by then.

My plan was always to grab him round 6 and not really seeing a reason to deviate from that for the sake of a safe C this week.

Currently pencilling in Hosking to Hynes round 6 unless he gets back to 80 mins somehow

@Cap'n Ranta - great read, well said. Play the game, don't be played.

robelgordo wrote:I reckon Brown without Moses is a bit overblown. Small sample sizes, 3 games in 2020 driving the average

I was raising a Moses fund for this week or next, but noticed Dylbags was also getting cheap before Moses' injury. He dropped to 650k last year and I wanted to get on, but went for Hynes instead. That worked out alright, but Brown would've been the better option for significantly cheaper (like 350k cheaper) and wouldn't have needed to sell Hop. Dyl's suspension was the only thing that saved more punishment from my bad call.

Down to 675k now, even if Moses was still there, he would've been tempting next week at close to 650k again.

rhinoceroo wrote:

Next minute Chan still starts on edge and plays 80.

In the post match interview Bellamy makes it really clear that Blore plays edge and chan will be in the mid rotation.