NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 45 - All Hands on deck

Chewie wrote:Just had a quick look at the top 1000 teams in our FOG...
Proud of you lads! You guys get fantasy, all teams look nicely set-up for the byes

There are over 1000 teams in the FOG? Fuck yeah I'm in the top 10% !

Snatchpato wrote:
There are over 1000 teams in the FOG? Fuck yeah I'm in the top 10% !

maybe I should rephrase that... I meant FOG teams that are currently in the top 1000

Also as a coach who has erroneously not gotten on Armstrong yet, is he a must buy? I can trade him in this week and loop him and others through the WFB position, but don't need him to fill the 13.

Would hate to trade him in, have him go on a run of 30s, and make me $80k only needing to trade him back out.

On the other hand, I'd hate to avoid him, have him average 55, make another $250k and be the only person on planet earth who didn't profit from his involvement.

Thoughts?

Snatchpato wrote:Also as a coach who has erroneously not gotten on Armstrong yet, is he a must buy? I can trade him in this week and loop him and others through the WFB position, but don't need him to fill the 13.

Would hate to trade him in, have him go on a run of 30s, and make me $80k only needing to trade him back out.

On the other hand, I'd hate to avoid him, have him average 55, make another $250k and be the only person on planet earth who didn't profit from his involvement.

Thoughts?

You've 100% just echoed my thoughts. I brought him in five minutes ago. I'll likely set up some sort of loop, looking at Hands score and if no good play Armstrong instead via Weekes, or if Hands goes well, looping one of the wfbs via Walsh.

If Matterson somehow makes the 13 who do you loop? Setup like this so far

May, Mikaele, Hughes
KPP, Salmon

Snatchpato wrote:Also as a coach who has erroneously not gotten on Armstrong yet, is he a must buy? I can trade him in this week and loop him and others through the WFB position, but don't need him to fill the 13.

Would hate to trade him in, have him go on a run of 30s, and make me $80k only needing to trade him back out.

On the other hand, I'd hate to avoid him, have him average 55, make another $250k and be the only person on planet earth who didn't profit from his involvement.

Thoughts?

I'd say it's probably worth it with that breakeven of his. Could settle around a 45 average, currently priced at 32. On the other hand, you can't have every 'must have' cow. You gotta let some through to the keeper.

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:If Matterson somehow makes the 13 who do you loop? Setup like this so far

May, Mikaele, Hughes
KPP, Salmon

Hughes but doubt Matto makes way back

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:If Matterson somehow makes the 13 who do you loop? Setup like this so far

May, Mikaele, Hughes
KPP, Salmon

The rumours surrounding him, seemingly supported by his mystery illness the last two games, and being slotted into the extended bench, I'm not holding my breath.
I'm ditching him and calling it a dud trade-in.
Only cost me 2 trades for $9k profit.

Snatchpato wrote:Also as a coach who has erroneously not gotten on Armstrong yet, is he a must buy? I can trade him in this week and loop him and others through the WFB position, but don't need him to fill the 13.

Would hate to trade him in, have him go on a run of 30s, and make me $80k only needing to trade him back out.

On the other hand, I'd hate to avoid him, have him average 55, make another $250k and be the only person on planet earth who didn't profit from his involvement.

Thoughts?

I'm in the same boat. Currently leaning towards grabbing him for Angus this week. Thought is that I'm short wfbs in 19 (cheers ynot) and worst case he's highly owned and has a huge negative be.

Anyone going to maximise benchwankery this round just to watch their rank rise at the start of the last game?

Is that still a thing that works?

Baz said in his recent presser that Talagi can play any position. Possibly that includes dummy half.

precursor wrote:

I'd say it's probably worth it with that breakeven of his. Could settle around a 45 average, currently priced at 32. On the other hand, you can't have every 'must have' cow. You gotta let some through to the keeper.

I tend to agree. My second biggest weakness as a fantasy coach is being too stubborn once I've missed initial price rises. With that said, priced at 32 Armstrong could easily make 100k, and it's probably worth the risk (and the trade) to ensure at the very least I don't lose ground with the field.

Classic gametheory matrix:



If I buy and he does well (Good)
If I buy and he does bad (Neutral - everyone has him)
If I don't buy and he does well (Bad if I don't find a better option, Neutral if I do find someone equally as good [yeah right])
If I don't buy and he does badly (Neutral if I don't find a better option, good if I do find someone better)

If I buy there's a 50% chance I benefit, and a 50% chance I break even with the field.
If I don't buy theres a 25% chance I benefit, a 50% chance I break even with the field, but a 25% chance I lose out big time.

Think I have to bite the bullet and bring him in.

Milchcow wrote:

Just for clarity, are you talking total points or averages, or just a consideration of actual NRL ability? And who do you think number 2 will be?
If its fantasy averages Walker won't be top 3, so we'll work on total points, which is a better metric for overall fantasy players anyway.
If you are talking in non-fantasy terms, then you're just wrong. Sam Walker won't be a top 3 halfback this year.


Total Fantasy points, DCE is short odds to be number 1, barring injury or if they keep resting him from origin.

I assume you're ruling out Hynes based on either injury or origin selection keeping him out of first grade, but he has a 257 point lead over Walker at the moment, so its not a given.

Dylan Brown, Matt Burton, Ben Hunt all have more than 100 points on Sam Walker at the moment. Even Chad Townsend currently has a better average. Some of those are 5/8th no halfbacks, don't kknow how specific you are being, and origin will get in the way.
But whilst I can easily see Sam Walker doing better than Townsend over the next 8 weeks, for the other players in front of him it is not such a sure thing.


I just want to make sure that if you do eat chips, you are eating them legitimately.

My but I'm mouthy after a small scotch. Righto - let's clear up the terms of this high stakes gamble.

1. After R20, Sam Walker will have scored the third highest total fantasy points of any NRL halfback (not 5/8th) in 2024
2. In 2025 Sam Walker will score more fantasy nrl total points than Nathan Cleary
3. (Additional). R10-R22 Walker will score the most NRL Fantasy points amongst halfbacks or 5/8ths


If bets 1 or 3 fail, I will post a 5 minute video of me eating chips down my local, including commentary on chip quality, gravy consistency, and speculations on what the large crocodile in the yard behind me would prefer in a chip/gravy combo.

Khany wrote:Baz said in his recent presser that Talagi can play any position. Possibly that includes dummy half.

Was thinking that he could possibly come on for Hands. Might actually look at a Brailey/Ming combo instead this week.

I know Robbos a bit of a Spaz with rotations but what about Whyte at Lock?

Should get high minutes again with that bench and Robbo openly said he wanted to find a spot for him in the team. should get DPP as well since he's played in the middle when on

TherealTimSimona wrote:I know Robbos a bit of a Spaz with rotations but what about Whyte at Lock?

Should get high minutes again with that bench and Robbo openly said he wanted to find a spot for him in the team. should get DPP as well since he's played in the middle when on
 

Big gamble. Watson will be back in a few weeks, likely moving Whyte back to the bench. Can't see Whyte keeping both Radley and Watson out of the starting lock role, no matter how well he plays.

Snatchpato wrote:
I tend to agree. My second biggest weakness as a fantasy coach is being too stubborn once I've missed initial price rises. With that said, priced at 32 Armstrong could easily make 100k, and it's probably worth the risk (and the trade) to ensure at the very least I don't lose ground with the field.

Classic gametheory matrix:



If I buy and he does well (Good)
If I buy and he does bad (Neutral - everyone has him)
If I don't buy and he does well (Bad if I don't find a better option, Neutral if I do find someone equally as good [yeah right])
If I don't buy and he does badly (Neutral if I don't find a better option, good if I do find someone better)

If I buy there's a 50% chance I benefit, and a 50% chance I break even with the field.
If I don't buy theres a 25% chance I benefit, a 50% chance I break even with the field, but a 25% chance I lose out big time.

Think I have to bite the bullet and bring him in.

Oh bloody oath Snatch.

Look. I was totally on board with the setup (well, not really. I mean you've got two columns for three categories, which isn't great practice), but why assume the good/bad probabilities are 0.5? Just because there are two options doesn't mean you should split them evenly.

He's averaging 51 in 4 games with 5 tries. When he didn't score a try he scored 26. So either there's a 3/4 chance he'll score a try each game, or we're expecting some sort of scoring downtrend. If he averages 35 is that good or bad? It's not too bad for a 444k player, but is that why you're buying him?

The last question matters because your second set of probabilities are also weird. Because it assumes you are happy with staying in the same rank position you're in (because you've weighted good and bad outcomes with equal preferences). Which you may be! But most folks when buying a roughy hoping for high scores are doing it as an expression of risk preference, which isn't consistent with your conclusions as these state a broad preference to not fall behind the field (i.e. risk avoidant).

So perhaps you may decide there's a 0.3 likelihood he'll continue to score ~55, and a 0.7 likelihood he'll score ~40.
Then you need to weight your good/neutral/bads according to risk profile (ideally with another column for your neutral result). Are you equally happy with a 0.4 chance of a good outcome as 0.6 chance of a neutral (risk avoidant) or indifferent to 0.2|good, 0.1|neutral, 0.7|bad (risk seeking to make up ranks).

Then you can do the calcs.

https://www.parraeels.com.au/news/2024/05/29/coachs-media-round-13/

barrett confirmed gutho and moses are good to go. blaize will play off the bench 'anywhere'.

was asked if matto could play, he said 'yeah he's still a chance' and then sort of vaguely went into 'we've got to get through today we've got a couple of bumps and bruises there in the squad'.

The Bludger#2 wrote:

The rumours surrounding him, seemingly supported by his mystery illness the last two games, and being slotted into the extended bench, I'm not holding my breath.
I'm ditching him and calling it a dud trade-in.
Only cost me 2 trades for $9k profit.

Same, traded him in for round 10, which is the only round he's played. Funny thing is, he hasn't been my worst buy of the season

my tv broke wrote:https://www.parraeels.com.au/news/2024/05/29/coachs-media-round-13/

barrett confirmed gutho and moses are good to go. blaize will play off the bench 'anywhere'.

was asked if matto could play, he said 'yeah he's still a chance' and then sort of vaguely went into 'we've got to get through today we've got a couple of bumps and bruises there in the squad'.

I'm seriously thinking of grabbing Moses this week.....hopefully he can lead my fantasy team to the promised land (which at this point is where I was before last weeks apocalypse round)

It's not a soft tissue/ligament injury so if he's right to go he's probably right to go.

It's more likely he has an alright game this round, Hynes gets injured/has a complete stinker and Moses gets drafted in to play games 2 & 3.


Speaking of the apocalypse listening to Killing Joke's 1980 self titled debut atm.....I like it.