HomeThat's far too advanced for me on a Wednesday morning. I think I need to drink a beer while I unravel your genius.L-Jimmy wrote:
Oh bloody oath Snatch.
Look. I was totally on board with the setup (well, not really. I mean you've got two columns for three categories, which isn't great practice), but why assume the good/bad probabilities are 0.5? Just because there are two options doesn't mean you should split them evenly.
He's averaging 51 in 4 games with 5 tries. When he didn't score a try he scored 26. So either there's a 3/4 chance he'll score a try each game, or we're expecting some sort of scoring downtrend. If he averages 35 is that good or bad? It's not too bad for a 444k player, but is that why you're buying him?
The last question matters because your second set of probabilities are also weird. Because it assumes you are happy with staying in the same rank position you're in (because you've weighted good and bad outcomes with equal preferences). Which you may be! But most folks when buying a roughy hoping for high scores are doing it as an expression of risk preference, which isn't consistent with your conclusions as these state a broad preference to not fall behind the field (i.e. risk avoidant).
So perhaps you may decide there's a 0.3 likelihood he'll continue to score ~55, and a 0.7 likelihood he'll score ~40.
Then you need to weight your good/neutral/bads according to risk profile (ideally with another column for your neutral result). Are you equally happy with a 0.4 chance of a good outcome as 0.6 chance of a neutral (risk avoidant) or indifferent to 0.2|good, 0.1|neutral, 0.7|bad (risk seeking to make up ranks).
Then you can do the calcs.
NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 45 - All Hands on deck
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- Post n°182
Re: NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 45 - All Hands on deck
by Liverpool_Bulldog Wed May 29, 2024 11:12 am
my tv broke wrote:https://www.parraeels.com.au/news/2024/05/29/coachs-media-round-13/
barrett confirmed gutho and moses are good to go. blaize will play off the bench 'anywhere'.
was asked if matto could play, he said 'yeah he's still a chance' and then sort of vaguely went into 'we've got to get through today we've got a couple of bumps and bruises there in the squad'.
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Contradicting my above post entirely, I've been scheming like a madman this morning trying to set up a very elaborate loop. If you've got the time and the mental capacity, I'd appreciate you checking out my madness and let me know if I've missed anything:
NRL Fantasy Loophole (nrlfantasyfanatics.com)
NRL Fantasy Loophole (nrlfantasyfanatics.com)
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Snatchpato wrote:
I tend to agree. My second biggest weakness as a fantasy coach is being too stubborn once I've missed initial price rises.
Its a very hard mental step to take, but one of the best things you can do as a fantasy coach, is ignore a players previous price history.
Current price, break even and expected future scoring are what you care about.
Once a round is locked out, a players old price is gone, and does nothing but screw with you psychologically.
The trade decision isn't trade in Armstrong a month ago or trade him in now. The trade decision is trade him in now or trade him in later/never.
You can't let the cash other people have made already influence your decision as there is nothing you can do about that now.
One option is to do what I did with Jaimin Jolliffe. Regret missing him every week until he gets a long term injury*
*please don't break Armstrong.
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Strangely @L-jimmy I feel like I'm very risk avoidant when it comes to missing out (FOMO), however I'm pretty risk tolerant when it comes to being alone on a punt. Like I'll happily grab a POD because I think they'll do well (Api to start the year as an example), however I'm very unlikely to let Armstrong go through to the keeper. Basically I'm a "what if!" kind of guy in both risk averseness and risk tolerance.
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KPP a risky captaincy, could easily be benched for Frizell just before the game.Snatchpato wrote:Tossing up on (C)arty Party for the lols, or genuinely much more seriously KPP for captaincy this week. The dude is due a meat pie, has a very high base, and is averaging 51 in games over 60 minutes (which all his second row starts are). Add in a cheeky 16 point try and he could go boom.
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filthridden wrote:Anyone going to maximise benchwankery this round just to watch their rank rise at the start of the last game?
Is that still a thing that works?
Last week rank was updated for people coming in for bye players as soon as emg player played ie Cotter. Only got rank move for EMG coming in for injured Papy so no doesn't work if the loop is player out on bye. If Origin player whose team plays this week maybe it works?
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Definitely a possibility, but it didn't happen last week, KPP recently had a rest + bye, he should be fresh, and I imagine AOB needs more experience/punch through the middle once Jaifiti and Thompson come off, hence Frizell through the middle.mattnz wrote:
KPP a risky captaincy, could easily be benched for Frizell just before the game.
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They changed it last year so that AEs get added as soon as the player they are replacing doesn't play.
For maximum benchwankery you want them to be replacing Roosters/Cowboys players (in particular the 18th man for each of those teams)
Its just not worth it these days.
Have to do my wanking from starting positions
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my tv broke wrote:https://www.parraeels.com.au/news/2024/05/29/coachs-media-round-13/
barrett confirmed gutho and moses are good to go. blaize will play off the bench 'anywhere'.
was asked if matto could play, he said 'yeah he's still a chance' and then sort of vaguely went into 'we've got to get through today we've got a couple of bumps and bruises there in the squad'.
Sounding like - "If I absolutely have to play the prick as there is no other fit player available".
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Lots of rumours about Matto being permanently on the outer with the playing group. Can't see Barret staring down the dressing room to force him in. Sad I bought, glad I sold.
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- Post n°192
Re: NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 45 - All Hands on deck
by WT Winfield Wed May 29, 2024 11:34 am
If the Warriors could make a play for Cryan MatterPOD before Rd 16, that'd be much appreciated
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Yikes
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 45 - All Hands on deck
by my tv broke Wed May 29, 2024 11:37 am
perhaps they make an SOS call to a fully hit half, like Mitchell Moses
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my tv broke wrote:perhaps they make an SOS call to a fully hit half, like Mitchell Moses
And a fully fit backrower... As Liam Martin pulled out of training when they started high impact running...
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- Post n°196
Re: NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 45 - All Hands on deck
by WT Winfield Wed May 29, 2024 11:41 am
Sounds like Madge forgot to record the Panthers v Sharks game
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Madness having Nicho there if it's all true.
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- Post n°198
Re: NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 45 - All Hands on deck
by standard-issue Wed May 29, 2024 11:44 am
Mulvy wrote:Snatchpato wrote:Also as a coach who has erroneously not gotten on Armstrong yet, is he a must buy? I can trade him in this week and loop him and others through the WFB position, but don't need him to fill the 13.
Would hate to trade him in, have him go on a run of 30s, and make me $80k only needing to trade him back out.
On the other hand, I'd hate to avoid him, have him average 55, make another $250k and be the only person on planet earth who didn't profit from his involvement.
Thoughts?
You've 100% just echoed my thoughts. I brought him in five minutes ago. I'll likely set up some sort of loop, looking at Hands score and if no good play Armstrong instead via Weekes, or if Hands goes well, looping one of the wfbs via Walsh.
Yep, I still had Cleary so his Weakleg made way for Armstrong.
I feel much better knowing yourself and Snatch missed him as well.
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WT Winfield wrote:Sounds like Madge forgot to record the Panthers v Sharks game
He was in the stands haha
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- Post n°200
Re: NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 45 - All Hands on deck
by WT Winfield Wed May 29, 2024 11:46 am
BCT05 wrote:
He was in the stands haha
Jesus.. A few too many rums then
Not sure how he was the only one in the dark on these injuries