2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 14

Tigers v panthers will be a close game

Pookus McFly wrote:

What worries me is that if the Tigers outfit who clicked end up putting a big score on the panthers who looked rubbish, then the same thing might happen again. I think he is a definite hold, but I could see Taylor wanting to get him off as quickly as possible in the wake of a certain victory.

I don't think that Tigers forwards are good enough to dominate big packs consistently to allow their backs to run riot like they did against Souths

They will need ET playing 80 more often than not with the mediocre bench Tigers usually run

wolfking wrote:Why Madge keeps Clark and Tyrell around is beyond me.  Angus joining the bench is encouraging though.  Have Musgrove so at least it looks like the spot is his to lose.

I may roll the dice and give big Saifiti another chance.  I'm actually more worried about how Cartwright will perform.  Might just go Phyton to Moga.  Burns could be a dud, especially the way Souths are playing.

Mate I'd get rid of Saifiti. With that score to start, even if he pumps out 45's he only makes 70k at a very slow burn by round 12 and is not a keeper. Was also going to talk you out of Python to Ponga and then realised it was Moga, which I like and I am doing myself

mulvy wrote:

My "Errors":  ET, Kbrom, elgey, idris, hayne. Surely they're holds right?  edit not counting pyton as a mistake

ET, KBrom are not errors as such, they are performing roughly to expectations. They should make modest price rises during the year and put up some decent scores

You would trade them out mainly for
a) a cash grab for somewhere else or to b) swap them for someone performing even higher than expectations.

The concern with doing that is that it could be a bit sideways and a waste of a trade. So you want to make sure whatever you are doing is a genuine upgrade/good use of cash before pulling the trigger.

Elgey also performing about to expectations. His past history suggests he is not a massive fantasy scorer. He will make money slowly, and ideally will put up a big score a week or 2 before you want to trade him out so you can maximise his profits. If a promising cashie comes along then a downgrade would not necessarily be a stupid move.

Idris is only an issue if he continues starting from the bench. He was on -2 at halftime last week after only being on 8 minutes and dropping the ball first touch. Ended up on 18 so as a starter he will clearly make cash. AQuestions is how long that takes to come along.

It appears that Hayne will not hit the fantasy super heights from his last couple years at Parra. That's fine because he is dirt cheap and still a much better option than anyone in his price bracket. But he is looking like a future trade out rather than a season keeper.

my tv broke wrote:Tigers v panthers will be a close game

Agree and as a Tigers fan it worries me, Penrith will come out firing after last weeks performance

Tigers by 8

mulvy wrote:

Mate I'd get rid of Saifiti. With that score to start, even if he pumps out 45's he only makes 70k at a very slow burn by round 12 and is not a keeper. Was also going to talk you out of Python to Ponga and then realised it was Moga, which I like and I am doing myself

Yeah, I think he'll only ever really get the 40 minutes, especially with the bench that the Knights have.

With the money I have, I can go Python to Moga and have 112K to trade with Saifiti, even though there aren't many options around 443K. Or I can go Python to Burns then burn all my cash and get Barnett.

Any injuries in that Boys' pack last weekend

Taumalolo played 70 minutes. Most minutes he played all last year was 62 and he averaged 50 a game.

Wowsers, didn't realise that, now he was firmly hit my radar

wolfking wrote:

Yeah, I think he'll only ever really get the 40 minutes, especially with the bench that the Knights have.

With the money I have, I can go Python to Moga and have 112K to trade with Saifiti, even though there aren't many options around 443K.  Or I can go Python to Burns then burn all my cash and get Barnett.

Gee if you don't have other fires to put out, the latter sounds appealing, rookie winger risks aside

SpotTheOzzie wrote:Hi Milzy,

Yesterday you linked me to:
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t128-stats-spreadsheets-etc-break-evens-for-2017-now-included#14123

Is there any articles on how prices work? I'm under the belief they're averaged over the 5 rounds or is it now 3? Is the formula public?

Thanks mate.

hey @SpotTheOzzie


You are correct that the price change formula now uses a 5 game weighted average rather than the 3 game average used by Supercoach/Dreamteam
Note that this isn't quite the same as a players price being exactly his 5 game average. The 5 game average is only part of the calculation.


One of the posts hidden behind spoiler tags (4th post down) in the linked thread above is an article I wrote on pricing last year, containing the basics of how the formula works.


The official formula is kept secret - anything used by myself/renegades/etc is just an approximation. I don't believe there is any official write up on the pricing system, it will be only be fan made analysis like mine that is available.
The "Renegades Analytics Department" might have something written up on the topic somewhere if you search through the renegades pages.

mulvy wrote:

Gee if you don't have other fires to put out, the latter sounds appealing, rookie winger risks aside

It is tempting mate, I'd miss the Moga train but would have every other cow. I could also just go Saifiti to Wallace this week and see what happens with Cartwright over the weekend.

Wow Merrin only had 4 hit ups. Has he ever had so few?

wolfking wrote:

It is tempting mate, I'd miss the Moga train but would have every other cow.  I could also just go Saifiti to Wallace this week and see what happens with Cartwright over the weekend.  

Carty Scored 41 in a side which got dicked and with -16 in errors and MTs

I'd consider that a big win in those circumstances, Massive no getting rid of Carty

Welshy wrote:Any injuries in that Boys' pack last weekend

Taumalolo played 70 minutes. Most minutes he played all last year was 62 and he averaged 50 a game.

Wowsers, didn't realise that, now he was firmly hit my radar

Game also went for an extra 5

Welshy wrote:Any injuries in that Boys' pack last weekend

Taumalolo played 70 minutes. Most minutes he played all last year was 62 and he averaged 50 a game.

Wowsers, didn't realise that, now he was firmly hit my radar

Mate no injuries that I know of and Fensom on extended bench could mean someone drops off. Lolo is a beast but as you are a base stats man i think it's a no. And i would love to say that he makes 300 metres every game but again don't think so

Mighty Fishes wrote:Wow Merrin only had 4 hit ups. Has he ever had so few?

Gees lol what a bludger, not a bad effort averaging a run every 20 minutes

Welshy wrote:
Carty Scored 41 in a side which got dicked and with -16 in errors and MTs

I'd consider that a big win in those circumstances, Massive no getting rid of Carty

I just mean all the off field stuff, dunno how it will affect his game, but I guess it will pass.

I'm liking the Barnett trade actually.

Pyhton - Burns
Saifiti - Barnett

Don't even have to do the Burns one really.  Would give me a side of;

Smith Brailey
Fifita Musgrove Kafusi Yates
Surgess Barnett Carty Smat Sironen Winterstein
Lamb Norman Jacks Elgey
Talakai Kelly Idris Cotric
Hayne RTS Turbo Burns Suli

Not bad, could move Turbo to centre and play Suli.  Or I trade Phython to say Stimson so I can move SMat down, but Burns probably better.

Pookus McFly wrote:

Game also went for an extra 5

mulvy wrote:

Mate no injuries that I know of and Fensom on extended bench could mean someone drops off. Lolo is a beast but as you are a base stats man i think it's a no. And i would love to say that he makes 300 metres every game but again don't think so

Still more than he played all last year without golden point.

Will keep an eye on his minutes with that depleted Boys' pack

Cheers boys

I am having trouble dropping Brenton Lawrence. He pushed his breakeven too high and he wont make any money in the time he has at the top, but surely his good scores are worth holding him for 2 weeks until AFB and Kapow come back

Mighty Fishes wrote:Wow Merrin only had 4 hit ups. Has he ever had so few?

Probably the round last year when I traded him out before he went huge the following week

Pookus McFly wrote:I am having trouble dropping Brenton Lawrence. He pushed his breakeven too high and he wont make any money in the time he has at the top, but surely his good scores are worth holding him for 2 weeks until AFB and Kapow come back

We know he an play decent minutes, and he should be, but Barrett refuses to give them to him. If I had him I would old I reckon.