2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 15

Break Evens post round 1 can be found in the spoiler

BEs:

Some spreadsheets

2017 stats breakdown (current up to round 1)
https://www.mediafire.com/?guprpt6xuiq9dpm

2017 team planner (includes 2016 stats breakdown)
https://www.mediafire.com/?t8gqrkac3r1tomk

2015 stats breakdown (if you want to go back a bit in time)
http://www.mediafire.com/file/fkxlw0139cvc529/2015_Prozone_stats.xlsx


Price predictor
http://www.mediafire.com/file/urcieiozcujhuvo/Price_predictor%282%29.xlsx

Thought I was about to start the new thread and shut old one down again!

Damn You Milch!! Damn you!!

Sorry, but I wasn't even quick. Took me a little while to assemble all my spreadsheet links for the 1st post

Welshy wrote:Thought I was about to start the new thread and shut old one down again!

Damn You Milch!! Damn you!!

If it makes you feel better I spent ages trying to figure out how to lock it then saw there were two new part 15 threads laughed to myself and gave up

Mighty Fishes wrote:

If it makes you feel better I spent ages trying to figure out how to lock it then saw there were two new part 15 threads laughed to myself and gave up

You don't have to be technically illiterate to be a mod here, but it helps

Milchcow wrote:
Sorry, but I wasn't even quick. Took me a little while to assemble all my spreadsheet links for the 1st post

These parts won't see past P50 when I'm around next

Muhaha
Muhahahaha
Muhahahahahahahahahahhaha

Milchcow wrote:

You don't have to be technically illiterate to be a mod here, but it helps

I felt like was always one step ahead of SI but then he went and posted that photo that one time

I almost posted a 3rd one, but I refreshed the page to double check no one beat me to it.

Here'a a doozy of an opening question

If I've already traded out a fit player for a moneymaker/better scorer in Saifiti>Wallace is it then stupid to trade out another fit player in McGuire/ET to get JDB in?

From last thread

some scouse guy wrote:
So seriously thinking of adding Moga

As an alternative, does MCK have any upside to him, or will that depend mainly on Idris?

I think at the moment, MCK is limited to being a non 80 minute centre.

And eventually you'd think Idris will get the starting spot, in which case Chee-Kam will just be a bench utility.

Not sure he'd start over Sue/Lawrence/Taylor

So short answer - no fantasy upside

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Here'a a doozy of an opening question

If I've already traded out a fit player for a moneymaker/better scorer in Saifiti>Wallace is it then stupid to trade out another fit player in McGuire/ET to get JDB in?

Yes.

Just wait on your cows to start churning $$ and upgrade your middies into JDB later

McGuire started well and ET did in less than anticipated minutes

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Here'a a doozy of an opening question

If I've already traded out a fit player for a moneymaker/better scorer in Saifiti>Wallace is it then stupid to trade out another fit player in McGuire/ET to get JDB in?

That first option there, yeah that is a good trade.

That second option there, yeah that is a shit trade.

What did you expect when drafting McGuire? What did you expect when drafting Elijah Taylor? Why didn't you select Jack de Belin in the first place?

One round doesn't make the man, and you are potentially trading out guys you saw as season long keepers after 1 week. Now I will say I don't think McGuire improve much, but surely you have more important things than sideways trades or would rather keep those trades for later. There is also a good chance Jack de Belin plays Origin this year. Which means he misses 4 games throughout the year.

Now I think you should weigh up the importance of the trade and year long impact. I think you can wait a week or two to reevaluate McGuire and Taylor as well as Jack de Belin who had an amazing game.

Cheers fellas,

I was never too keen on the idea was just throwing it out and the answer is rather unanimous.

1st trade is a goer and probably be my only to start the season

Thoughts on Barnett vs Taumololo?

I like Barnett much more for base stats. Looked very good on the weekend and went off with a knock - so he was meant to play more minutes.

Lolo played 70 mins last week. There was OT but wasn't he like a 50min dude in 2016? There wasn't any injuries that forced a change in rotations from what I remember of the game.

Lolo - 70
Lowe - 57
Cooper - 84
Hess - 34
Asiata - 27
Scott - 60
Bolton - 51
Kaufusi - 37

I didn't watch the positional rotations, but it looks like Hess comes on in the back row, while Asiata/Kaufusi come into the FR. I can't find tog for 2016, but I was sure Lolo was around 50 with Lowe around the 70. Is there a change here? If so then Lolo could be a very good buy.

Atm I have Barnett in line for a trade in, but Lolo is under serious consideration.

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Here'a a doozy of an opening question

If I've already traded out a fit player for a moneymaker/better scorer in Saifiti>Wallace is it then stupid to trade out another fit player in McGuire/ET to get JDB in?

As someone who is wrestling a similar question.

What are you going to do if next week De Belin scores 42 and McGuire get a try on his way to 73. Would you want to swap them back again?

My thinking has come down to this. I think JDB is good for a long term average of around 65-70.

That means his price will settle down around $610-$650k. He's already at $586k so unless he keeps scoring multiple tackle-break tries, he doesn't have that far to go before he settles down. Then hopefully around the time you want him he puts up a sub 40 score (scored 40 or less 5 times last year) and then you can bring him in cheapish.

If you had unlimited trades, wouldn't hurt to bring him in now. But you don't, and you can't just trade in the highest scoring gun every week or you'll run our of trades before slats does.

Remember its too late to let his 92 count in your score.

Also remember you selected McGuire and ET for a reason.
Fantasy is littered with storied of guys who traded out their guns out after 1 or 2 bad weeks only to sit there and watch them kill it. Or traded in someone after a couple of big scores only to watch them flounder.

Last year Trent Merrin averaged 43 over his first 4 games, then averaged 61 over his next 4 after heaps of people had traded him out.
Jamed Tedesco averaged 60+ his first 6 games, and under 40 his next 5 (That one may be my fault pretty sure he started sucking after I finally brought him in)

Don't be the guy who trades out his guns just before they go big.

The only reason you would trade McGuire or Taylor for JDB right now is if you were convinced you'd got it wrong on McGuire/ET and they wouldn't be big scorers this year. or if you thought you had massively undervalued JDB and he'll be averaging well over 70.
I don't think either of those is the case.

Any obvious problems with the team (first year to fantasy, first post)

Smith, brailey
Fifita, safiti, matagi, f kaufusi
Surgess, wallace, k brom, s matautai, siro, yates
Norman, sezer, elgey, field
Walker, talakai, kelly, idris
RTS, Tturbo, Hayne, Suli, crotic

Traded out sezer > jacks and safiti > barnett this week (28k in bank now)
/who should I bench between brailey, matagi, fusi, siro, matautai
/thinking of captaining surgess against depleted manly pack, thought?

Cheers Milch,

Will stick with what i have, although Saifiti has to go, a 19 can not be overlooked (putting my foot down)

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Cheers Milch,

Will stick with what i have, although Saifiti has to go, a 19 can not be overlooked (putting my foot down)

You have to think longer term and not just after the 19.

If Tedesco scored 30 when you expected 50 you wouldn't dump him would you

So why Saifiti after a 19 when expecting 40?

ty22 wrote:Any obvious problems with the team (first year to fantasy, first post)

Smith, brailey
Fifita, safiti, matagi, f kaufusi
Surgess, wallace, k brom, s matautai, siro, yates
Norman, sezer, elgey, field
Walker, talakai, kelly, idris
RTS, Tturbo, Hayne, Suli, crotic

Traded out sezer > jacks and safiti > barnett this week (28k in bank now)
/who should I bench between brailey, matagi, fusi, siro, matautai
/thinking of captaining surgess against depleted manly pack, thought?

Thought id roll out the welcome wagon
Those trades seem fair, unless the Ttitans buy him back i dont think he has much use. With Croker returning even worse.

Im trading out Saifiti just cant afford anyone decent so a slight downgrade is in order.

Surgess could go well, im more inclined to go with Fifita this weekend, didnt do anything of note for his 55 so plenty of room for improvement.

Thats my 2 cents anyhow

ty22 wrote:Any obvious problems with the team (first year to fantasy, first post)

Smith, brailey
Fifita, safiti, matagi, f kaufusi
Surgess, wallace, k brom, s matautai, siro, yates
Norman, sezer, elgey, field
Walker, talakai, kelly, idris
RTS, Tturbo, Hayne, Suli, crotic

Traded out sezer > jacks and safiti > barnett this week (28k in bank now)
/who should I bench between brailey, matagi, fusi, siro, matautai
/thinking of captaining surgess against depleted manly pack, thought?

Are you happy with playing Elgey in the 17? Should Slater return early, Jacks probably misses out, so you'd be forced to run Elgey. Not the end of the world since the rest of your team can make up for it... but Elgey is someone I would prefer to keep out of my 17.

Your team is solid. Well done on your first year man