Top 10 traded player archives

Will be interesting to see how this goes throughout the year, too see the hits and misses and laugh at others misfortunes or cry in envy.

I'm a little baffled so many are trading Keary in.
It's a massive case of chasing last week's points.
As m_s said in the main thread - he won't be scoring 52 tries this year.

Milchcow wrote:
I'm a little baffled so many are  trading Keary in.
It's a massive case of chasing last week's points.
As m_s said in the main thread - he won't be scoring 52 tries this year.

Yep very confusing with Keary, I saw some value in him before the season started at his price but then you would have started with him if you were that confident so why now?

Trading out TTrbo is confusing as well, you bought the player in a volatile position who will have ups and downs.
I watched the game and didn't see anything that would make me want to trade him out this week that's for sure.

Will be interesting to see this list next time next week after round 2 performances

Well, that list is interesting and agrees with the advisement I received yesterday.

I've now committed to trading:
1. Chambers for M Suli;
2. Mann for Tuivasa-Sheck

This will be my first move in a number of future trades to free up some cash to promote my FRF/SRFs. From what I've heard/read, S Boyd and J Roberts are pretty overrated?

Some things jump off the page from this list

Traded out

Tom Trbo = 54
Dean Whare = 50
James Tamou = 53
Kevin Proctor = 42 (bleeding cash but 42 is still ok returning from injury)

Traded in

Luke Keary = 33
Lattrell Mitchell =14

To the 867 players who traded out Tom Turbo, are you trading him back in again?

Pacey's Best wrote:To the 867 players who traded out Tom Turbo, are you trading him back in again?

Surely nobody on this forum traded out Tommy Turbo. Very silly mistake if so.

Bren wrote:

Surely nobody on this forum traded out Tommy Turbo. Very silly mistake if so.

Lone Scout did apparently

Boozecluez wrote:

Lone Scout did apparently

This makes me laugh more then it probably should.

The thing about Lone Scout is that as an employee he'd be barred from actually claiming any prizes. If that was me I'd certainly for go for some out there picks and trade options.

Ok, I think i can provide some insight into the minds of those crazy enough to trade in Keary after week 1... Because I'm one of them. Before i go on though i think its only fair to stress that nearly every trade after 1 week is an educated guess at best.

So... Some background and My trades - I traded out jwh and brought in talakai and Keary. On the face of it, looks bad. However i also had Halves of Austin, LKelly, LG and Fogerty and only 2k cash to work with. JWH to Talakai gave me cash to do something about Kelly and avoid playing LG in the 17 or getting an AE.

So, why choose Keary. Well at the time i looked at both lamb and Keary and I'm surprised it's so contentious given how much love lamb has had. Keary averaged mid 30's last year in am average of 65mins. Just the extra time playing 80 could be enough to see him up to 40. That's the same score Lamb got week 1, with a TA, 2tbs and 2offloads (maybe an inflated score, maybe not and he does it consistently, but worth thinking about at the time).

Lamb made 26 tackles with 6 missed, Keary made 24, 0 missed. Which leads me to the new team factor. Playing in a red hot roosters team could see a lot more attacking points for Keary after coming from a somewhat struggling team in terms of attack. But it's usually overlooked just what a difference those around a player can do for his defence, maybe Keary has better minders now and that's why he missed none. So perhaps we see a further increase on his average, let's say mid 40's if I'm lucky (he had low km I admit, but averaged 150 the previous season so maybe it's just the game).

Which leads me to the last thought, the punt. Taking a gamble on someone's short term form for a few weeks in order to get an extra keeper on sooner than others. His first week score is a pretty tempting bonus if you're only using him as a short term jump to another player. Let's say he scores slightly higher than my estimate and gets 50 week 2, suddenly he's rising in cash pretty quickly which is exactly what I'm looking for in a quick leapfrog. Even if he averaged what I'd predicted over the next 4 weeks, that 72 inflates his price rises even further, which as it stands isn't something I'd get from going lamb. Its also a nice little cushion if he does score low, so it mitigates the risk of the gamble.

Anyway, just thought I'd share some of the decision making i went through as i know we can sometimes be a bit hive minded on things (i place myself in this same basket) which may scare others off from sharing alternative ideas. I think by now people know I'm not concerned about putting my neck out even if it ends in ridicule, so i might as well take the plunge. Anyway a few of my points above may turn out to be wrong in hindsight, but I'll wait until I've seen another 3 weeks of scores before i judge. More upset at Talakai

Also apologies for any typos, did it on a crowded tube with my mobile so you'll have to live with them and hope it makes enough sense

Hey archer

Look at the end of the day the exercise is simply to see how players score and provide some hindsight.
Keary wasn't necessarily a bad trade, for his price 33 isnt terrible last week and made some money not to mention it was a poor scoring round even for guns.

I added him to my list simply as he scored closer to where I thought he will average, though I could be wrong and he goes to the next level.

Watching him play he ran hard and took on the line so it is hard to see how it translates to fantasy due to the unpredictability of it. Comparisons this year would be Walker,Gutherson,Milford etc

Keary has a higher ceiling than Lamb but also a lower floor given his lack of base stats, so more risk but more reward too.

End of the day if anything this thread can show is to make sure you do your homework, plan ahead and own your decisions (which you did).
Worst case he makes us pause before we pull the trigger or get rid of a proven gun (ie Gallen Or Surgess)

Every trade we make has impact (good or bad) and sometimes it's better to be proactive if you can predict a future problem than do nothing at all. As long as you stick to your plan

You won't win this comp not rolling the dice at least

Any ways cheers for your insight bro

Oh don't get me wrong mate, i love that you've started this, thanks heaps! Every bit of analysis helps and the context of this is a good starting point for some healthy discussion. Please keep them coming, I think its a great exercise!

I think if I already have the player it causes me to not see them being traded in.
Unsure if there is a workaround for this

Surprised to see so many people trading RTS.

Scouter wrote:Surprised to see so many people trading RTS.

Surprised to see any trading him. Will see if they have some crazy foresight that no one else sees.

I cant believe so many traded Hayne out. 2 trades out and in for a potential 50k-100k. If you hold him youll make that 100k maybe more a bit later but on for only the 1 trade