Welshys Player Profiles

Nathan Brown



Player: Nathan Brown
Club: Parramatta Eels
Position: 2RF
Cost: $760,000
2016 average: 40
2017 average: 52
2017 minutes average: 67
Handsomeness rating: 2/5 Mitch Aubbussons

Nathan Brown, last year Brown went from interchange enforcer to starting cult hero lock and his scores skyrocketed, there wasn't a whole lot of difference in his interchange minutes compared to when Brown took over the starting role (54 minutes vs 68 minutes) but the starting lock role shook Brown into the upper echelons of fantasy 2RF

interchange points average: 36
starting lock points average: 58 (discounting injury affected R11)

when starting in a full time role Browns lowest score was a R10 41 with a high score in R23 of 75 (with no try)

Wrap up
Brown is undervalued starting 2018 due to starting the previous year on the interchange bench which affected his end season average, a 58 point average over 18 games is a good sample and his amazing base stats (avg 38 tackles & 165 RM a game) give Brown a very safe floor with the ability to go massive on any given day. You can do A LOT worse than having Brown in your fantasy side to start the season.

predicted 2018 avg - 55-60 points



4/5 Welshy Beers

Tohu Harris



Player: Tohu Harris
Club: New Zealand Warriors
Previous Club: Melbourne Storm
Position: 2RF
Cost: $615,000
2016 average: 52
2017 average: 42
2017 minutes average: 68
Handsomeness rating: 3.5/5 Mitch Aubbussons (don’t let the shaggy hair fool you)

Harris missed the start of the 2017 season due to injury and took a while to get back into the swing of fantasy scoring averaging a mediocre 40.5 points a game over his first 4 games, this is more akin to a seasoned fantasy mid ranger than a gun 2RF Harris morphed into last year.
A few more injury affected outings in R16, 17 & 24 further dived his season scoring average to its worse total since the 14’ season. Harris is an absolute weapon, and as a ball playing backrower who cuts some wonderful lines there aren’t many better in the game.
Starting 2RF points average: 42
adjusted scoring average: 51 (8 games) (discounting 3 injury affected games R16, 17 & 24)
Harris lowest score (minus injury affected games) was a R18 34 with a high score in R26 of 96 (with 2 tries)
3 round finals average of 61 (no tries)

Wrap up
A move to his homeland team might affect his attacking potential because lets face it the Warriors are a scrub team compared the well oiled machine of a team he leaves at the Storm, There is hope the extra defensive work Tohu will pick up could balance out the attacking situations (and points off the back of them) Harris will find harder to come by at the Warriors. I’m still expecting a bounce back year for Tohu and there is plenty of value in him
predicted 2018 avg - 45-50 points


4/5
Welshy Beers

Jai Arrow




Player: Jai Arrow
Club: Gold Coast Titans
Previous Club: Brisbane Broncos
Position: 2RF
Cost: $409,000
2016 average: 23
2017 average: 28
2017 minutes average: 29
Handsomeness rating: 3.5/5 Mitch Aubbussons
Long thought of as the apparent Brisbane lock heir to the fantasy god Corey Parker, Jai Arrow instead decided to pack his bags and head on over to the Gold Coast Titans to fill their vacant 13 position. In short stints off the pine, Arrow showed the ability to be a base stat whizz collecting an average of 18 tackles and 80m, for someone who projects to be playing a far larger role at his new club, Arrow is full of fantasy delight.

Starting 2RF points average: 37 (1 game, 51 minutes)

Wrap up
A move to back to his junior club home with the prospect of playing a far larger role, should present fantasy coaches with a great opportunity to grab an early season cash cow with the potential to turn into something far more, every season presents players who go far beyond their early fantasy season expectations and Arrow has every chance to be in that bracket. I project a role of around 50-65 minutes if Arrow starts in the 13 and remains there, his base stats will keep his floor high.
predicted 2018 avg - 35-50 points


4/5
Welshy Beers

Connor Watson



Player: Connor Watson
Club: Newcastle Knights
Previous Club: Sydney Roosters
Position: HLF/HK
Cost: $404,000
2016 average: 27
2017 average: 27
2017 minutes average: 42
Handsomeness rating: 3/5 Mitch Aubbussons

Watson played an ever changing role with the Roosters last year, playing small minutes off the interchange mainly (13 games) sometimes spelling Jake Friend, sometimes coming into the backline to inject something different, he played 6 full matches, 4 at fullback where he really shone and 2 in the halves in place of Pearce who funnily enough followed him to Newcastle. Whilst his role has not yet been seen Watson figures to get first crack at the 6 shirt for the Knights alongside Pearce, where if he remains he should be able to crank out a decent average, his real value could come if star recruit Kayln Ponga is shifted into the centres, and Watson nabs the 1 shirt and Lamb/Cogger get the wheel in the 6 alongside Pearce.

Adjusted points average when playing over 40 minutes: 44 (9 games)
Average starting half: 27.5 (2 games)
Average starting fullback: 49.5 (4 games)

Wrap up
A pre season move to the ever evolving Knights looked set to turn Watson into a decent fantasy option but the addition of Pearce and the reluctance to give up on Lamb and Cogger has cast some doubt on Watsons position in his new club. If he plays in the 6 I would expect his score to pretty much mirror Luke Keary, he just doesn’t kick the ball enough to get the consistent base stats all gun fantasy halves get, so his floor could potentially be low on a poor attacking day at the office, whilst unlikely with Ponga around, if Watson shifts to fullback his value could really take off, his talent will elevate him to a bigger role at the knights but its tough to judge his true position and thus fantasy value at Newcastle this early in the season.

predicted 2018 avg - 35-45 points


3/5
Welshy Beers

Peta Hiku



Player: Peta Hiku
Club: Warriors
Previous Club: Penrith Panthers/Warrington Wolves
Position: CTR/WFB
Cost: $282,000
2015 average: 33.5
2016 average: 27.5
2017 average: 19
2017 minutes average: 56
Handsomeness rating: 3/5 Mitch Aubbussons
Hiku only played 9 games for the Panthers last year before being shipped off to he ESL with the Warrington Wolves, he was outstanding in England but unfortunately that doesn’t mean much. Luckily for Hiku after years with the Panthers and Sea Eagles he has the starting NRL pedigree. Oddly Hiku played 4 games off the bench for the Panthers and the rest he found himself on the wing so he scores from previous years took a nose dive, he should find himself back in the CTR for the Warriors, which would be good news for fantasy coaches.

points average 2017 when starting wing: 22 (5 games)
2016 points average: 30 (10 games playing 80 mins CTR)
2015 points average: 33.5 (21 games playing 80 mins 7 games CTR, 2 games Fullback, 10 games wing)

Wrap up
Another moving back to his homeland, Hiku should find himself back in his preferred position in the CTR where he averages around the 30 point mark, but the Warrior have plenty of options in the backline so his starting position there isn’t nailed on. If Hiku is named to start in the CTR come R1 he will be in plenty of fantasy teams because he will make some cash and provide some solid scores, his DPP is nice.

predicted 2018 avg - 25-30 points


2.5/5
Welshy Beers

Brett Morris






Player: Brett Morris
Club: Canterbury Bulldogs
Position: WFB
Cost: $423,000
2015 average: 41
2016 average: 38
2017 average: 29
2017 minutes average: 78
Handsomeness rating: 2/5 Mitch Aubbussons

Brett Morris or as he is more affectionately known in fantasy circles BMoz, has started to show his age over the last 3 seasons missing 36 games due to injury (and origin) so there is a fair amount of risk from that perspective alone. His scoring average as is most, is far better when BMoz plays in the 1 shirt and with Hoppo there last year and talk of Mbye there this year, there is plenty of traffic ahead of him so he looks set to start the season on the wing.

points average 2017 when starting wing: 28 (16 games)
points average 2016 when starting wing: 36 (9 games)
2017 Low score: 9 in R20 high Score: 61 in R3 (2 tries)

Wrap up
If BMoz can stay injury clear which is a massive IF, he is still a weapon, even on the wing, his scores will be reliant on tries (he only scored 6 last season) and there’s hope Dean Pay can alter the putrid Bulldogs attack, the trick in selecting Bmoz will be deciding whether his recent injuries have curtailed his brilliant career early or that that he can stay on the field and his poor scoring from last term was from a result of being bogged down in Des forward orientated game plan.

predicted 2018 avg - 30-35 points

   
2.5/5
Welshy Beers

Josh McGuire



Player: Josh Mcguire
Club: Brisbane Broncos
Position: FRF/2RF
Cost: $679,000 priced at 46.4 points
2015 average: 48
2016 average: 48
2017 average: 46
2017 minutes average: 59

Handsomeness rating: 1/5 Mitch Aubbussons (grub cunt)
Last pre season there was a heap of talk about the donkey grub Josh Mcguire and his move to lock, soley used as a prop in previous seasons, Mcguire has always been a big worker and many thought his scores would elevate with the move to lock with the potential for extra minutes in a young Broncos pack. That didn’t materialise…..after first glace at his season average….I didn’t select McGuire but can always remember regretting I hadn’t last year so I did some stats digging

2017 points average R1-R14: 51 (13 games)
2017 points average R15-R26: 44 (8 games discounting injury affected R17)
2017 R16, R20, R21 with origin and a DNP inbetween for an avg of 30, really knocked his average down

Wrap up
Losing Easy E and Adam Blair from the Donkeys pack could elevate McGuire further, I’m not sure his minutes will increase much more than the 60 he averaged last year so it will need to come from increased attacking output which is tough is suddenly find, however his FRF/2RF DPP is a big plus and even if he only stretchss his 2017 early season R1-R14 and late season R22 through finals average of 51 he will be a great early season buy

Predicted average: 48-51


4/5
Welshy Beers
 

Josh Reynolds



 
Player: Josh Reynolds
Club: Wests Tigers
Previous Club: Canterbury Bulldogs
Position: HLF
Cost: $493,000 priced at 33.6 points
2015 average: 37 (when starting Half: 43)
2016 average: 45
2017 average: 34
2017 minutes average: 70
Handsomeness rating: 2.5/5 Mitch Aubbussons (grub cunt but more handsome than Josh McGuire grub cunt)

Love him or hate him Josh Reynolds or JRey is a great footballer when he isn’t acting like a cunt on the field, actually that isn’t fair, its that sort of niggly play which sometimes make him great and sometimes just makes him a cunt. I love him and I think it’s a great move for the Tigers, his average took a big dip last year (10 points from previous year) and was his lowest season average since Milchys spreadsheets became a thing.

2017 adjusted points average minus injury affected games:37 (14 games)
2017 low score when playing 80 minutes R6: 17 high score R21: 63 (1 try)

Wrap up
His half partner Brooks has never been an ultra dominant kicking half, so Reynolds should get some decent KM totals, some exciting backs at the Tigers and decent edge forwards should give him some decent opportunities to create and rack up some attacking points, JRey is a pretty safe bet to at least hold his value, unless having Benji back affects his minutes or whether Cleary deems Lolohea more worthy of the 6 jumper, but free from the shackles of some abhorrent attacking structure from his final season at Belmore, JRey should find a home right away under Clearys tutelage and return to fantasy form

Predicted average: 38-45

3.5/5
Welshy Beers

Good write ups. You've shortchanged Arrow several points on the handsomeness scale though.

Welshy wrote:Josh Reynolds

“Just one little thing is that I know I’m going to be popping up on both sides of the field this year. For four years at the Dogs, the style we played didn’t allow me to do that,"

ryno_ wrote:Good write ups. You've shortchanged Arrow several points on the handsomeness scale though.

Hahaha I thought this too but wasn't brave enough to speak up

Sio Siua Taukeiaho



Club: Sydney Roosters
Position: 2RF
Cost: $535,000
2015 average: 42
2016 average: 45
2017 average: 37
2017 minutes average: 44
Handsomeness rating: 3/5 Mitch Aubbussons

SST suffered through an injury affected season last year, missing 9 games, he also saw a minutes reduction as he battled through the Roosters forward rotation. That looks set to change this year with the release of Guerra opening up the starting lock berth with SST favourite to beat out Isaac Liu, another potential positive for Tauk is goalkicking duties with Flash Gordon moving onto the Gold Coast.

points average 2017 when starting: 39 (8 games)
2016 points average when playing 50 minutes+: 45

Wrap up
A down year fantasy wise for SST has made him become an appealing choice in the 2RF with the loss of some forward competition, his fantasy average was down 8 points from 2016 and 5 points down from 2015, with his starting role back he should provide some decent value.

predicted 2018 avg – 40-45 points



3.5/5
Welshy Beers

Dylan Napa




Player: Dylan Napa
Club: Sydney Roosters
Position: FRF
Cost: $445,000
2015 average: 39
2016 average: 43.5
2017 average: 30
2017 minutes average: 47
Handsomeness rating: 1.5/5 Mitch Aubbussons

Napa had a huge points drop off from years previous, suffering a 13.5 point slide, his minutes reduced by 10 and which can potentially attribute to some of the lost points. 32 tackles and 122RM in 2017 vs 24 tackles and 100RM in 2016)

points average 2017 adjusted for injury affected games: 32 (17 games)
2017 low score when playing 40+ minutes: R4 17 High Score: R22 54 (no try)

Wrap up
Another down year fantasy wise for a rooster forward, Napa will have to prove himself on the field to keep being considered for QLD origin duty, some of his play last year was lacklustre. His fantasy totals from 2016 and 2015 (2 year avg 41) points to last season hopefully being an off year for the ranga. Priced at 30 points I think is pretty much his fantasy floor with potential to make some cash and provide solid scores

predicted 2018 avg – 35-43 points


3.5/5
Welshy Beers

James Maloney



Player: James Maloney
Club: Penrith Panthers
Previous Club: Cronulla Sharks
Position: HLF
Cost: $405,000
2015 average: 44
2016 average: 33
2017 average: 28
2017 minutes average: 80
Handsomeness rating: 2.5/5 Mitch Aubbussons

2 seasons removed from being a decent half option and even longer from being a genuine fantasy half gun Maloney has struggled with a reducing general field kicking game and a gradually increasing missed tackle rate, which can absolutely kill fantasy scores, Maloney had 9 games last year where he missed 7+ tackles!!!


2017 low score: R23 5!!!! high score: R24 51

Wrap up
A move from a pre season contender to contender, shouldn’t hurt Maloney and his ability to lay on some attacking points, but he likely won’t be kicking goals at Penrith with gun youngster Nathan Cleary in the 7 shirt, he might however affect Cleary and his sometimes gigantic KM totals as he posseses a decent kicking game himself, picking Maloney will be a gut call on how his attacking prowess plays out at the Panthers because the stats don’t show a huge potential points increase from his previous 2 seasons.

predicted 2018 avg - 25-35 points


2/5
Welshy Beers

Jarryd Hayne



Player: Jarryd Hayne
Club: Parramatta Eels
Previous Club: Gold Coast Titans
Position: CTR/WFB
Cost: $448,000
2014 average: 63
2016 average: 25
2017 average: 30.5
2017 minutes average: 75
Handsomeness rating: 3.5/5 Mitch Aubbussons
After promising the Eels a return then shunning them to join the Titans for more cash the hayne plane crash landed on the Gold Coast offering mediocre returns both in real life and fantasy. Moons ago thought of as one of the best talents to grace the NRL Hayne has struggled to offer the same impact since ditching the game to play in the NFL. Now back at Parra where all his best fantasy days have come, his likely position of CTR doesn’t offer the same points return as the No.1 shirt

points average 2017 when starting CTR: 24 (5 games)
points average 2017 when starting Fullback: 33 (12 games)

Wrap up
Hayne will likely be starting at CTR if Brad Arthur has any sense, keeping Gutho in the No.1 shirt makes the most sense for the team, Hayne should shunt Brad Taga out of his starting position and improve the backline there. His points total whilst playing fullback at the Titans showed me he lacked the explosive 20-30 points burst plays he used to rack up in 14’, His DPP is enticing but will have to show me he is anywhere near his previous best before taking the plunge. The return home offers hope that may be the case.

predicted 2018 avg – 25-35 points


2.5/5
Welshy Beers

Player: Matt Scott
Club: North Queensland Cowboys
Position: FRF
Cost: $503, 000
2015 average: 44
2016 average: 36
2017 average: 35
2017 minutes average: 48 (2 games)
Handsomeness rating: 3/5 Mitch Aubbussons

Matt Scott, the one-time fantasy gun and member of the prodigious 100 fantasy points club. Injured in just his second game of the 2017, his ACL tear kept him out for the remainder of the season (as ACL tears tend to do). Potential buyers would be hoping he not only gets back into form for 2018, but actually find his form of 2 seasons past (the year he won the comp), as it is worth noting he only managed a lackluster 36 point average from 2016, in which he played a full season for an average of 46 mins per game- which is closed to where he is priced.

2017 low score: R2: 22
2-17 high score: R1: 49

Wrap up
Priced at 34 points, there is not much value to be seen in Matt Scott if he only matches his fantasy scores of 2016 in which he played healthy. In 2015 when he was scoring 44 points per game, he averaged 53 minutes- 7 minutes more per game than in 2016. With new additions to the Cowboys roster since his injury: Jordan McLean and Shaun Fensom; as well as bigger roles for players like Scott Bolton and young gun Corey Jenson, it may be a case of too many cooks spoiling the broth. Cowboys have a stacked forward pack and it might be hard for Scott to find those 53 minutes he needs to be of value. But if you think that Paul Green back the old warhorse in for 50+ minutes, then he could be a good buy.

predicted 2018 avg – 35-40 points


2/5 Hairy Pookus’ balls

Player: Bryce Cartwright
Club: Penrith Panthers
Position: 2RF/HLF
Cost: $325,000
2015 average: 50
2016 average: 51
2017 average: 22
2017 minutes average: 46
Handsomeness rating: 2/5 Mitch Aubbussons

Nephew of Panthers great John Cartwright, Bryce was one of the most promising young players of 2016, averaging 3 offloads per game with a season high of 10 in round 17! His trademark offload however was somewhat offset by his poor defence (averaging 3 missed tackles per game), yet he still achieved great fantasy scores thanks to his healthy 27 (av.) tackles and 127 (av.) running metres.
2017 saw somewhat of a fall from grace for Bryce with off field scandal causing him to spend some time away from the game early in the season, whilst a lateral meniscus tear kept him out of the game for 9 weeks during the mid season. He in fact only managed a single full 80 minutes at his preferred (fantasy) position of 2RF, playing 4 games at 5/8th and finishing the season with 6 games from the interchange bench for a paltry average of 37 minutes in this role. His scores fell accordingly.

2017 low score: R11: 6
2017 high score: R1: 41

Wrap up
The decision on whether to pick up Cartwright really just depends on his playing position. If he can win back the second row starting position then he should be a lock in everyone's fantasy teams. He does have plenty of competition for that spot though, with Corey Harawira-Naera and James Fisher-Harris both in the mix (assuming Issah Yeo has the other edge locked down). Even if playing from the bench, Cartwright will still probably increase in value (since 22 is not hard to beat!), but he probably scores too low to put in your starting 17, and priced too awkwardly to be a real cash cow in a position which now has limited spaces. So it is a simple equation for you fantasy punters: Carty gets the starting gig and he’s fantasy gold or he plays off the bench and misses out.

predicted 2018 avg – 45-50 points in starting second row; 20-30 points off interchange



4/5 Hairy Pookus' balls (if starting); just half a sack if not

Player: Greg inglis
Club: South Sydney Rabbitohs
Position: WFB
Cost: $503,000
2015 average: 45
2016 average: 44
2017 average: 25 (injured first game)
2017 minutes average: 58 mins (one game)
Handsomeness rating: 2.5/5 Mitch Aubbussons

Lauded as a future immortal by some, Greg Inglis has been toted as both the world’s best centre and the world’s best fullback during differing points in his career. Known for his trademark right hand fend, it is rumored that GI once palmed his way through the Earth itself just to palm some Chinamen on the other side. He has always been a fantasy gun in the backline, which made it all the more distressing for many fans to watch him limp around for most of round 1, 2017 with what was clearly a very nasty injury. It turned out to be his ACL and Greg spent the remainder of the season on the pine.

2017 low score: R1: 25
2017 high score: R1: 25

Wrap up
GI is priced at 34 points, which would be tremendous value considering his previous average in the fullback position. There are heavy rumors that GI may be switched to centre for the 2018 season and that is probably the crux of picking him. For 503k he is a steal at fullback, but his price is probably only par if he is playing in the three-quarter line. That said, off season surgery would have fixed a few niggling problems as well as his ACL, and Billy Slater showed that champions can indeed hit the ground running with comebacks. GI still has the talent (and the giant fend) to at least hold value at his price range even in the centre position and probably somewhat of a POD if he does play there. Disregard him at your own risk, but probably better options.

predicted 2018 avg – 35-45 points per game if playing fullback; 30-40 points at centre



3/5 Hairy Pookus' balls (splitting the sack at 4 for FB, 2 for Ctr)

Player: Andrew McCullough
Club: Brisbane Boncos (no, that’s not a typo!)
Position: Hooker
Cost: $844,000
2015 average: 56 (70 mins)
2016 average: 45 (66 mins)
2017 average: 58 (79 mins)
Handsomeness rating: 4/5 Mitch Aubbussons

Probably the only real contender to the obvious Cameron Smith pick, Macca has phenomenal work ethic, averaging a whopping 49 average tackles in 2017. He actually outscored Smith for the first 6 games last season and had faithful CS9 owners biting their nails wondering if they had made the wrong choice. McCullough added an average of 99 kick metres and 45 run metres to his reliable tackle count and even jagged a couple sneaky tries from dummy half early in the season. He played reduced minutes when was concussed in round 11, and though initially thought by many to be dead, he only missed one game before returning to illustrious scores for another 7 rounds. In round 21 he tore both his ACL and MCL and sat out the remainder of the season

2017 low score: R11: 37 (injury affected 58 mins); lowest 80 min game was R14: 46
2017 high score: R4: 81 (including a try)

Wrap up
McCullough has a high ceiling and low floor, which makes his a great fantasy prospect. His greatest attribute is his tackle count- 10 per game above Smiths’ in 2017. With a few forwards leaving the Boncos (still not a typo) this season, expect Macca to plug the gap until new recruits like Lodge find their feet. Could be a really reliable buy for those who want a POD from the heavily picked Smith whilst saving 73k to spend elsewhere, or just for those who want to troll Renegades about “how obvious it was to pick him, I can’t believe you guys didn’t” when he no doubt starts the season scoring 70s again.

predicted 2018 avg – 55-60 points per game



4/5 Hairy Pookus’ balls

Player: Mitch Aubusson  
Club: Sydney Roosters
Position: 2RF/CTR (Hopefully the former)
Cost: $573,000
2015 average: 38 (67 mins) playing 9 games at 2RF for 46 point average ; 6 games centre, 7 bench
2016 average: 38 (76 mins) playing 15 games at 2RF for 43 point average ; 7 games at centre
2017 average: 39 (79 mins) playing 15 games at 2RF for 45 point average ; 7 games cenre, 1 bench, 1 wing
Handsomeness rating: 6/5 Mitch Aubussons  (The Mitch Aubusson  handsomness paradox allows improper fractions)

The notorious black widow, despised by many fantasy players and heavily advised against buying from many supposed experts. Aubbs  enjoys a massive cult following at Fantasy Fanatics because of his handsomeness as well as his football prowess. It is often mused by many that he would probably also be a very generous lover. But whether you love him or hate him, there is no denying that he is the best option at centre available AS LONG AS HE STAYS IN THE 2RF. That’s all there is to it- if he plays 80 mins in the second row, he is fantasy gold; if he plays at centre or off the bench then he is overpriced (but perhaps not this season?- more on this to come). But because Aubbs  is so versatile on the football field, he is often moved to cover injuries in the three quarter line or wing during games. Even worse, when the stocks of outside backs are running low during the season, he often stays there for a large part of the season. Hence his nickname and the frustration of many  previously burnt fantasy coaches.

2017 low score- R14: 15 (at centre) ; lowest in 2RF- R10: 29
2017 high score: R2: 74

Wrap up
Roosters outside back stocks seem no healthier this year than the last: they have lost SKD but gained Reece Robinson. I assume Latrell and Manu play centre which leaves Aubbs  as the Mr. Fix it once again. He is priced at 39 this year so well worth rolling the dice IMO, since this is what he averages even with his positional changes each season. Aubbs can probably afford to be moved to centre 7 or 8 times and still hold value! And if he happens to play his first full season in the second row, everybody will be kicking goals (metaphorically, this isn't soccer). That said, he is not named the Black Widow without cause, and so Aubbs will most definitely play 80 mins in the second row if you don’t have him in your team this season, but will play mostly in the centres if you do.  I also have it on good authority that his hair smells like cinnamon.

predicted 2018 avg – 40-50 points per game if he can stay in the second row

       

5/5 Aubusson -obsessed Fanatics