Rippin and Tearin wrote:Im still using the old magic number (9475) but based on that and 2 scores of 45 he will be at 384k. and by week 13 he will have reached his peak at 425k (~420 by rnd 8 for what its worth).
Another scenario is that he hits 45 for 2 weeks and then averages 30 from there on out in which case he peaks at 391k after round 5 and then goes on a steady decline. I guess that scenario (or something similar) is what people are a bit worried about.
Please correct my numbers / methods if needed
This justifies my Trade in of ET to Hess. If Hess for the next week can jag at least 60 minutes on an edge (will be more confident if named to start now lolo is out) I can't see him scoring less than 45. So say I sell him in round 4/5 for $390K I bank $76K now for similar scores, I gain a quick $70K (which I can't really guarantee from Abbey, Montoya, Hoare, Paufusi, Stimson, Capewell, Ese ese, Edwards, Ponga and I do a direct trade to Whitehead/BThompson/JBrom/Cartwright if it all turns to shit. Otherwise he just beasts it and jags the starting spot over lowe, or 1 of lowe/cooper get injured and he has the fulltime gig. Not much risk because even with a 30 score he will still make close to 30K this week.
Abbey/Montoya - would rather wait a week and watch these two. Won't lose out too much cash watching for a week.
Hoare - prefer to watch this week, and if I can wait would rather wait two weeks and see the team once lolo is back. With Fensom floating around I fail to see how he gets more than 20-25 minutes.
Paufusi - Frankensteins brother - is a trap and poor PPM. Will gain 50K at best from here and be a very slow burn (better options elsewhere as is already 44K above minimum price. Expect around 25 average)
Stimson - J Bromwich back this week or next probably means he's only going to get 20-25 minutes on an edge, but also V Leuluai might get the nod week about depending on opposition. Good player and can break a tackle.
Capewell - Would imagine he won't be playing this week due to at least 1 of Holmes/Beale to come back into the side, Bird back to centre etc. Hope he doesn't play as is a good cash out option for origin once some cows peak.
Ese Ese - benefited from Gillett's injury, likely to be back playing less than 35 minutes (played 48), lots of hit up metres from dropouts and kickoffs, won't break 4 tackles vs Storm, and will miss a lot of tackles like usual. Be surprised if he scored more than 25 this week.
Edwards - same scenario as Capewell, with DWZ/Hiku named in 21 if he plays again will probably only be 1 game. Good player but think Hook goes with DWZ and Whare personally.
Ponga - two games is probably not worth it but could carve up against Manly and Titans, if you had him you would be happy to play him but not worth bringing in if you don't.
Tyrone Roberts Davis - next best option to Robert Jennings but because he is a winger for a team in disarray I probably won't go with him. Titans have Eels (H), Cowboys(H), Warriors(A), Raiders(H), Broncos (A), Sharks (A). Dear me, Elgey has to go!!!!!!!
I am rolling the dice with Rennings, Souths should win again against knights so I expect him to be there for at least another two games. Has got DPP as well. He is the future and think he moves better laterally than Talakai so doesn't get caught out as much on defense. Probably there until Gray gets back at least.
I would sit and watch Cowboys and Bulldogs this week then pull the trigger next week if you like what you see. Go Robert Jennings if you need a cash cow back for now. And if you need a cash out option in the forwards this week, at least Capewell will play first two byes.