2017 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 32

Bren wrote:
To be fair I actually posted it on Easter Monday..

Easter Monday can be known as wet Monday and that  GIF sure made me wet. Or is it moist.


Moist.

So moist! I'm so proud

894 with ET and Suli to play. Will be happy with 950!

882 with Normal to go. Will also be happy with 950

StuDogg101 wrote:894 with ET and Suli to play. Will be happy with 950!

Did you play or reserve Kelly this week?

Bummer that they took 4 points off Fifita but he missed a few tackles at the end so it's a fair adjustment. Currently 888 with Idris to play & rank 404 but expect that will drop with people having a few players from Eels & Tigers like Norman, Gutherson, ET & Tedesco who can go big.
Asuming Idris scores 12 or more to hit 900 that will mean my side has hit 900 the last 2 weeks so I might try & save definitely 1 trade but maybe 2 this week. I don't have Crichton, Whitehead, Bodene, Frawley or K-Nik in my team & I do have Cook, Lamb, Jacks & Ponga who could be out if Coote returns so there's a few players that need replacing but having spare trades up your sleeve later on is always an advantage.

Is there a character limit on posts I need to know about before trying to drop this wall of text?

multiple.scoregasms wrote:Is there a character limit on posts I need to know about before trying to drop this wall of text?

TLDR

Already got my best score for the year with 807 from 14 (goes to show how crap my season has been thus far).

Hope the eels get back into form so Noman & Semi score well.

I'm hoping Coote is out again next week so I can play Ponga. With reserves of R. Jennings & Abbey I'll be forced into a trade if Coote is named. Do we think Holmes will play origin. With Slater fit & firing I would say they'll pick Slater over Holmes & Q'land always stay loyal to last years team.

I've opened up 5 different spreadsheets to run through all this data so you fuckers better appreciate it.

The Bye Period Hooker Conundrum feat Cameron Smith

As we all know Smith has consistently been the top dog of fantasy. For short periods of time other hookers have come close or even exceeded his scoring in the short term but it always comes back to Smith at the top of the food chain. Yesterday I touched out the merits of trading him out for Cook but this will be much more detailed so if you don't want to read a wall of numbers look away now.

Between round 12 and 19 Smith plays 4 games. Round 13, 14, 16 and 17. Round 13 and 16 will be backing up from origin so his past stats during this time will have an impact on his keep-ability over this period. Lets dig into the stats.

2012: Smith averaged 67.73 in 78 minutes. Round 12 backing up from Origin 1 Smith scored 48 points in 58 minutes. Round 15 backing up from Origin 2 Smith managed to score 78 points in 80 minutes.

2013: Smith averaged 70.81 in 80.14 minutes. Round 13 backing up from Origin 1 Smith posted 66 points in 80 minutes. This was his only post Origin performance due to Storm byes.

2014: Smith averaged 65.7 in 78.7 minutes. Round 12 backing up from Origin 1 Smith scored 67 points in 80 minutes. Round 15 backing up from Origin 2 Smith scored 53 points in 71 minutes. Round 18 backing up from Origin 3 Smith scored 54 points in 80 minutes.

2015: Smith averaged 61.3 and 79.7 minutes. Round 12 backing up from Origin Smith scored 49 in 73 minutes. Round 15 backing up from Origin 2 Smith scored 72 in 80 minutes. Round 18 backing up from Origin 3 Smith scored 42 points in 80 minutes.

2016: Smith averaged 66.6 points in 79.4 minutes. Round 13 backing up from Origin 1 Smith scored 58 points in 80 minutes. Round 16 backing up from Origin 2 Smith scored 60 in 80 minutes. Round 19 backing up from Origin 3 Smith scored 54 in 80 minutes.

Looking at all this Smith has averaged 58.4 points in 76.83 minutes. He has only missed meaningful minutes in 1 game. We will use this number as his "post origin average" from here on out.

This year Smith is averaging 63 points. we can reasonable assume he will continue to score this in non bye games.

Round 13, a round where many solid bye planners may be short on numbers Smith is going to give us 58.4 points. Round 14 Smith is going to give us 63 points. Round 16 where most players will be fielding atleast 17 players Smith will give us 58.4 points. Round 17 Smith will give us his usual 63 points. This gives us a total of 243 points from Smith between round 12 and 19. Let's look at some other options during this period.

Damien Cook: Currently averaging 34.1 points per game. If Farah is selected for Origin we can reasonably assume Cook scores 45-50 in bye rounds. Round 12 Cook gives us a 50. Round 13 Cook has the bye. Round 14 with Farah back Cook manages to post his season average of 34 points this gives us 84 points between 12 and 14 which is easily outscored by Smith's 121 this suggests it may not be worth making this trade in round 12. Over the rest of the bye period Cook plays 4 games to Smith 2 in some very difficult bye rounds, where Smith plays in easily coverable rounds. Cook will give us 50 in round 15, 34 points in round 17 giving us 84 points between 15 and 18. In this period Smith will score 121. However Cook misses an easily coverable Round 16 where only Rabbitohs and Eels have the bye so it can be reasonable assumed Cook will be covered by another 40 point scorer giving a total of 124 points, 3 more than Smith. Cook then plays both 18 and 19 which are very difficult to cover and most won't have 17 in both. Cook gives 50 and 34 during these games that Smith would not. Between round 15 and 19 Smith scored 121 with Cook(and round 16 replacement) score 208 points. Is this worth 2 trades? You be the judge.

Jake Friend: Currently averaging 42 points per game. If Pearce is selected for Origin, Watson should move to the halves. With Cordner/Guerra/Napa likely to play Origin Carter will be required to fill in the pack and with Matterson injured there is no one left to cover hooker leaving Friend to play 80. In games of atleast 70 minutes last year Jake Friend averaged 62.3 points per game. In round 12 Friend gives us 62 points. In round 13 Friend gives us 42. In round 13 Friend gives us 42 for a total of 146. In this time Smith will score 121. Advantage Friend. Friend then has a bye in round 15 before giving us 42 in round 16 and 17 for a total of 84. Smith in this time scores 121 taking a huge chunk out of the advantage Friend gained in the early bye rounds. Friend then plays round 17 for 62 points where Smith does not before also missing round 19. This gives Friend a total advantage of 50 points over the byes. Worth 2 trades?

Cameron McInnes: Currenly averaging 55.7. Misses round 12 so not worth trading until atleast round 15. From round 15-19 McInnes only misses one game in round 18. Round 15 McInnes will give us 55. Round 16 McInnes will give us 55. Round 17 McInnes will give us 55. Round 18 McInnes and Smith both have the bye. Round 19 McInnes will give us 55. McInnes total between 15 and 19 is 220. Smith total is 121. Worth the trades?

TL;DR Trading Smith to McInnes in round 15 looks like the best option over the byes as McInnes isn't relying on others being selected for origin to be a good option. It is yet to be seen whether it is worth the 2 trades to bank 100 points over the byes.

TBO wrote:


Did you play or reserve Kelly this week?

Nope. Had CHN in the team til yesterday only remaining player was SulI. Went Kelly - Crichton this week

Holy fuck you didn't mess around

Still didn't read

Thanks MS. I thought it was a very good read. I have Smith & Cook as my current hookers & might sell Cook this. The reason I got Cook was because he was staying on the field when Farah came on but nek minute he's sharing mins with Farah lol.

Good stuff MS, will read it properly over a coffee.

Or 2. Thank you.

Im just going to upvote that before I even read it, and then I'll probably have to upvote it again

Article hear sounding like Reynolds is liking playing next to Frawley.

http://www.nrl.com/reynolds-offers-lichaa-support-after-benching/tabid/10874/newsid/105741/default.aspx

Of his own budding on-field partnership with close mate Frawley, Reynolds offered enthusiastic praise whilst also being careful not to imply either of Mbye or Lichaa are putting in inferior performances.

"Frawls is doing amazing things for this team and that's not hidden, he comes on and just got so much control," Reynolds said.

"It would help any five-eighth, wouldn't it? It's not that he's doing something that Moses isn't or whatever.

"He's doing his part for the team and I'm just making sure I'm doing everything I can for the team but you put two and two together and it does help me out. The bigger picture is looking good."

@MS. well done mate, thats a good read that saved me doing the research myself. Looks like Smith to Friend over the bye round, if I want to use 2 trades, will be a tight call

White Lightning wrote:Thanks MS. I thought it was a very good read. I have Smith & Cook as my current hookers & might sell Cook this. The reason I got Cook was because he was staying on the field when Farah came on but nek minute he's sharing mins with Farah lol.

I did warn you

multiple.scoregasms wrote:I've opened up 5 different spreadsheets to run through all this data so you fuckers better appreciate it.

The Bye Period Hooker Conundrum feat Cameron Smith

As we all know Smith has consistently been the top dog of fantasy. For short periods of time other hookers have come close or even exceeded his scoring in the short term but it always comes back to Smith at the top of the food chain. Yesterday I touched out the merits of trading him out for Cook but this will be much more detailed so if you don't want to read a wall of numbers look away now.

Between round 12 and 19 Smith plays 4 games. Round 13, 14, 16 and 17. Round 13 and 16 will be backing up from origin so his past stats during this time will have an impact on his keep-ability over this period. Lets dig into the stats.

2012: Smith averaged 67.73 in 78 minutes. Round 12 backing up from Origin 1 Smith scored 48 points in 58 minutes. Round 15 backing up from Origin 2 Smith managed to score 78 points in 80 minutes.

2013: Smith averaged 70.81 in 80.14 minutes. Round 13 backing up from Origin 1 Smith posted 66 points in 80 minutes. This was his only post Origin performance due to Storm byes.

2014: Smith averaged 65.7 in 78.7 minutes. Round 12 backing up from Origin 1 Smith scored 67 points in 80 minutes. Round 15 backing up from Origin 2 Smith scored 53 points in 71 minutes. Round 18 backing up from Origin 3 Smith scored 54 points in 80 minutes.

2015: Smith averaged 61.3 and 79.7 minutes. Round 12 backing up from Origin Smith scored 49 in 73 minutes. Round 15 backing up from Origin 2 Smith scored 72 in 80 minutes. Round 18 backing up from Origin 3 Smith scored 42 points in 80 minutes.

2016: Smith averaged 66.6 points in 79.4 minutes. Round 13 backing up from Origin 1 Smith scored 58 points in 80 minutes. Round 16 backing up from Origin 2 Smith scored 60 in 80 minutes. Round 19 backing up from Origin 3 Smith scored 54 in 80 minutes.

Looking at all this Smith has averaged 58.4 points in 76.83 minutes. He has only missed meaningful minutes in 1 game. We will use this number as his "post origin average" from here on out.

This year Smith is averaging 63 points. we can reasonable assume he will continue to score this in non bye games.

Round 13, a round where many solid bye planners may be short on numbers Smith is going to give us 58.4 points. Round 14 Smith is going to give us 63 points. Round 16 where most players will be fielding atleast 17 players Smith will give us 58.4 points. Round 17 Smith will give us his usual 63 points. This gives us a total of 243 points from Smith between round 12 and 19. Let's look at some other options during this period.

Damien Cook: Currently averaging 34.1 points per game. If Farah is selected for Origin we can reasonably assume Cook scores 45-50 in bye rounds. Round 12 Cook gives us a 50. Round 13 Cook has the bye. Round 14 with Farah back Cook manages to post his season average of 34 points this gives us 84 points between 12 and 14 which is easily outscored by Smith's 121 this suggests it may not be worth making this trade in round 12. Over the rest of the bye period Cook plays 4 games to Smith 2 in some very difficult bye rounds, where Smith plays in easily coverable rounds. Cook will give us 50 in round 15, 34 points in round 17 giving us 84 points between 15 and 18. In this period Smith will score 121. However Cook misses an easily coverable Round 16 where only Rabbitohs and Eels have the bye so it can be reasonable assumed Cook will be covered by another 40 point scorer giving a total of 124 points, 3 more than Smith. Cook then plays both 18 and 19 which are very difficult to cover and most won't have 17 in both. Cook gives 50 and 34 during these games that Smith would not. Between round 15 and 19 Smith scored 121 with Cook(and round 16 replacement) score 208 points. Is this worth 2 trades? You be the judge.

Jake Friend: Currently averaging 42 points per game. If Pearce is selected for Origin, Watson should move to the halves. With Cordner/Guerra/Napa likely to play Origin Carter will be required to fill in the pack and with Matterson injured there is no one left to cover hooker leaving Friend to play 80. In games of atleast 70 minutes last year Jake Friend averaged 62.3 points per game. In round 12 Friend gives us 62 points. In round 13 Friend gives us 42. In round 13 Friend gives us 42 for a total of 146. In this time Smith will score 121. Advantage Friend. Friend then has a bye in round 15 before giving us 42 in round 16 and 17 for a total of 84. Smith in this time scores 121 taking a huge chunk out of the advantage Friend gained in the early bye rounds. Friend then plays round 17 for 62 points where Smith does not before also missing round 19. This gives Friend a total advantage of 50 points over the byes. Worth 2 trades?

Cameron McInnes: Currenly averaging 55.7. Misses round 12 so not worth trading until atleast round 15. From round 15-19 McInnes only misses one game in round 18. Round 15 McInnes will give us 55. Round 16 McInnes will give us 55. Round 17 McInnes will give us 55. Round 18 McInnes and Smith both have the bye. Round 19 McInnes will give us 55. McInnes total between 15 and 19 is 220. Smith total is 121. Worth the trades?

TL;DR Trading Smith to McInnes in round 15 looks like the best option over the byes as McInnes isn't relying on others being selected for origin to be a good option. It is yet to be seen whether it is worth the 2 trades to bank 100 points over the byes.

Could you do a Smith/Pritchard comparison please.

dreamers wrote:

Could you do a Smith/Pritchard comparison please.

Now that is one I didn't think of. Scores look on the way up so I'll use his 3 game average of 45. Pritchard plays 12/13/14/15/18. Assuming 45 in each. Pritchard gives 135 between 12 and 15 which is about 24 points over Smith. Gives another 45 over Smith in round 15 taking the total to 69. Misses the easy to cover round 16 where you will have another 40 scorer slot in so only lose 22 to Smith there taking us to 47. Scores another 45 in 17 where Smith scores 63 taking the advantage to 29. Scores another 45 in 18 where smith is unavailable bringing the total advantage over Smith to 74 points which is slightly better than Friend but still less than Cook and McInnes. The upside is that his scores are improving weekly and he doesn't require anyone to be selected for Origin to post these scores(like Friend and Cook do)