2018 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 1

Pookus McFly wrote:

It is certainly possible. But for 544k, he is priced to similarly to halves I would prefer who are in more dominant teams. Croft, Townsend, Moses for example. I would take any of those three before Taylor because I always want my backs in a competitive team where they have more chances for T and TAs.
The exception are players who have spiders on them and eat TBs for breakfast, like Teddy when he was with the Tigers and Ponga for the knights this year.

I started with Taylor last year, added the extra KM I expected and his kicking game in the opp 20 was brilliant but his tackling in some games was woeful, so many minus points from errors and MTs, his TAs from kicks saved his scores a fair bit last year turning 20s into 30s and low 30s into high 30s, far too inconsistent because of all his minus points and I think the Titans will struggle this year

Welshy wrote:
I started with Taylor last year, added the extra KM I expected and his kicking game in the opp 20 was brilliant but his tackling in some games was woeful, so many minus points from errors and MTs, his TAs from kicks saved his scores a fair bit last year turning 20s into 30s and low 30s into high 30s, far too inconsistent because of all his minus points and I think the Titans will struggle this year

Yeah 18 try assists in 2017 seems like an anomaly to me, second only to DCE with 19. You are really banking on him repeating his efforts and that is far too risky a gamble for mine

Edit: just looked up his 2016, and still made 14 TAs, so not terribly absurd for him to repeat similar figures. But as you said, he would need to work on his defence. But nothing to say Brennan cant fix that. Still too many 'Ifs' with juicer options in that price range if you ask me.

I like Taylor and maybe he will kick on to gun, but bear in mind he'll probably lose his goalkicking points to Michael Gordon.

Gaining momentum on the thread

I might have to harvest some new GIFs from the web in preparation for the first Page 51 party

Thanks fellas, Maubbs is snugly back at CTR in the spreadsheet.

White Lightning wrote:

Welshy wrote:Josh Papalii another, whose fantasy scoring took a big hit after origin

R1-R11 average - 58.7 (10 games)

R13-R26 - average 40.5 (10 games)

I didn't realise how high his average was before origin but I doubt he plays origin in 2018 since he was dropped from both origin & australia. He's also got the important dpp status for 2018. Cheers mate.

Yep, crazy. Bloke has been on runs in previous seasons as well.

Looking at Jordan McLean. Averaged 36 in 42 minutes. He will be starting for the Cowboys and I see potential for not only an increase in minutes but also in quality/confidence/player growth/whateveryouwanttocallit etc. Since these numbers he has been in a grand final and played for Australia. There is no noise in his stats, zero tries, LB's, TA's or LBA's and only five offloads. Matt Scott has been quoted as saying he will bring some second phase play to the team although I doubt Greeny would allow much of that.

I'll take a stab at the bench rotation. 2017 was a shit-fight regarding injuries and minutes, but trying to allow for injuries and origin it went something like:
Bolton  50
Asiata  45
Lolo  60
Kaufusi/Fensom 35
Hess (when in the prop rotation) 35-45 lets say 40
Jensen 25
Hampton (when bench utility) 20
Granville 60

2016 might give a better idea (again roughly allowing for injuries and origin):
Scott 45
Tamou 45
Lolo  50
Bolton 33
Hannant  34
Asiata  25
Kostjasyn 35
Granville 60

I don't think our bench utility (Martin/Hampton/Chudleigh) will shuffle through the backrow like Kosjasyn did so I would expect a roughly 60/20 split between them and Granville. I would expect Lolo to just come back a few minutes given with our props back he won't have to carry the whole pack again (fingers crossed), Matt Scott to also lose a few minutes at age 32 and coming back from injury, Asiata to revert to his normal role and Hess to stay in the prop rotation. So something like:

Scott  42
McLean 48
Granville 60
Utility  20
Lolo  58
Hess  38
Bolton 33
Asiata 25

Yes I'm aware that I'm a few minutes over, because Cooper and Lowe get the occasional rest.

But as I said it's not just about the minutes, there is potential to improve on all of his numbers. There is certainly a whiff of mid-range and risk but also a fair bit of upside. Thoughts

mulvy wrote:Looking at Jordan McLean. Averaged 36 in 42 minutes. He will be starting for the Cowboys and I see potential for not only an increase in minutes but also in quality/confidence/player growth/whateveryouwanttocallit etc. Since these numbers he has been in a grand final and played for Australia. There is no noise in his stats, zero tries, LB's, TA's or LBA's and only five offloads. Matt Scott has been quoted as saying he will bring some second phase play to the team although I doubt Greeny would allow much of that.

I'll take a stab at the bench rotation. 2017 was a shit-fight regarding injuries and minutes, but trying to allow for injuries and origin it went something like:
Bolton  50
Asiata  45
Lolo  60
Kaufusi/Fensom 35
Hess (when in the prop rotation) 35-45 lets say 40
Jensen 25
Hampton (when bench utility) 20
Granville 60

2016 might give a better idea (again roughly allowing for injuries and origin):
Scott 45
Tamou 45
Lolo  50
Bolton 33
Hannant  34
Asiata  25
Kostjasyn 35
Granville 60

I don't think our bench utility (Martin/Hampton/Chudleigh) will shuffle through the backrow like Kosjasyn did so I would expect a roughly 60/20 split between them and Granville. I would expect Lolo to just come back a few minutes given with our props back he won't have to carry the whole pack again (fingers crossed), Matt Scott to also lose a few minutes at age 32 and coming back from injury, Asiata to revert to his normal role and Hess to stay in the prop rotation. So something like:

Scott  42
McLean 48
Granville 60
Utility  20
Lolo  58
Hess  38
Bolton 33
Asiata 25

Yes I'm aware that I'm a few minutes over, because Cooper and Lowe get the occasional rest.

But as I said it's not just about the minutes, there is potential to improve on all of his numbers. There is certainly a whiff of mid-range and risk but also a fair bit of upside. Thoughts

I don't remember how Blair's stat line was during and post storm. But withoit the storms structure could we see less tackles, more missed tackles, ect. Then with Lolo being a big carrier of the ball result in less carries.

Random wrote:

I don't remember how Blair's stat line was during and post storm. But withoit the storms structure could we see less tackles, more missed tackles, ect. Then with Lolo being a big carrier of the ball result in less carries.

It's certainly possible, although the Cowboys are also very structured and have on paper the best or almost best pack in the comp this year, how that translates to fantasy, I'm not sure.

Props are hard to pick in fantasy at the beginning of the season, it's often a big guess what the rotation and minutes are going to be, especially with the rookies and those that have changed clubs. I personally like the DPP FRF/2RF players that end up playing big minutes in the 2RF (like FKaufusi last season)
I don't mind taking a punt on Lodge this season as we know he's likely to get the starting spot and he comes cheap (BE of 25). McLean on the other hand is priced at a BE of 36 with a question mark over the minutes he's going to get. JPapalii might have another pre-origin fantasy run, but that's a big gamble. Kasiano was mentioned in the pre-season fantasy write up, but looking at his fantasy scoring history I don't see much upside, even if he does end up getting big minutes.

Top 30 underpriced players based on their 2016 averages
(some of these guys only played 1-2 games in 2016)

Name	Price	Team	Priced at	2016
Jackson Hastings	$228,000	MAN	15.57	45
Bryce Cartwright	$325,000	PEN	22.19	50.33333
Reimis Smith	$212,000	CBY	14.48	40
Robbie Rochow	$312,000	WST	21.30	44
Jahrome Hughes	$403,000	MEL	27.52	49
Jaydn Su'a	$255,000	BRI	17.41	38.75
Taane Milne	$228,000	WST	15.57	33
Jack Cogger	$256,000	NEW	17.48	34.8
Mitch Rein	$448,000	GLD	30.59	47.75
Joseph Leilua	$486,000	CAN	33.19	48.77273
Richard Kennar	$228,000	SOU	15.57	31
Sam McKendry	$212,000	PEN	14.48	29.83333
Cameron Cullen	$228,000	MAN	15.57	30.4
Benji Marshall	$305,000	WST	20.83	35.3125
Jesse Bromwich	$534,000	MEL	36.46	50.70833
Robbie Farah	$486,000	SOU	33.19	47.11111
Shaun Fensom	$475,000	NQL	32.43	45.84615
Dylan Napa	$445,000	SYD	30.39	43.52174
Greg Eastwood	$317,000	CBY	21.65	34.05882
Leilani Latu	$328,000	GLD	22.40	34.72727
Ryan James	$700,000	GLD	47.80	60.125
Solomone Kata	$388,000	WAR	26.49	38.28571
Michael Lichaa	$533,000	CBY	36.39	47.85714
Peni Terepo	$305,000	PAR	20.83	32.17391
Trent Merrin	$654,000	PEN	44.66	55.95652
Pat Mata'utia	$228,000	NEW	15.57	26.85714
Josh Reynolds	$493,000	WST	33.66	44.75
Hymel Hunt	$310,000	SOU	21.17	32.23077
James Fisher-Harris	$296,000	PEN	20.21	31.09524
James Graham	$671,000	SGI	45.82	56.625

Chewie wrote:Props are hard to pick in fantasy at the beginning of the season, it's often a big guess what the rotation and minutes are going to be, especially with the rookies and those that have changed clubs. I personally like the DPP FRF/2RF players that end up playing big minutes in the 2RF (like FKaufusi last season)
I don't mind taking a punt on Lodge this season as we know he's likely to get the starting spot and he comes cheap (BE of 25). McLean on the other hand is priced at a BE of 36 with a question mark over the minutes he's going to get. JPapalii might have another pre-origin fantasy run, but that's a big gamble. Kasiano was mentioned in the pre-season fantasy write up, but looking at his fantasy scoring history I don't see much upside, even if he does end up getting big minutes.

I always get sucked into the mid range name more than the base priced rookies, last year JWH was awesome for me early-mid season, paid a mid range price, went a few points over his average and made some small cash

But i could of got on Easy E, Musgrove, Gavet etc etc for slightly lower scores and a boatload more money gained.

Obviously you have to jump on the right ones who get decent minutes and not the spuds like Jensen etc

with guys like Papalii and Taupau they might go on runs but their average come seasons end is always around the same, Papalii did increase his avg from previous years by 5 points last year however even with that shit mid - late season fantasy form (49, 44, 44) I think he can push that over 50, Taupau has finished last 3 seasons 51 49 49 so that's probably his peak

I can remember some jumping on Rapa last year when he was averaging something insane like 60 odd and spending over $500,000 and expecting him to maintain it.

If Cogger goes to the Bulldogs would you be tempted to buy him if he starts. I saw him play his 2 games in 2017 & he went ok but I noticed that he had plenty of energy & ripped right in. With Foran there who will play the organiser & also direct the play then Cogger will have to be play the attacking role. He seems to have the skills to do quite well being an attacking half.

At what average is Inglis actually priced?

I think he is priced at 34 points. J-J-Juicy!!

White Lightning wrote:If Cogger goes to the Bulldogs would you be tempted to buy him if he starts. I saw him play his 2 games in 2017 & he went ok but I noticed that he had plenty of energy & ripped right in. With Foran there who will play the organiser & also direct the play then Cogger will have to be play the attacking role. He seems to have the skills to do quite well being an attacking half.

Agreed WL, he looks like he could be pretty flashy. Is he talking to your mob?

I know it wont affect too much fantasy wise but Frank Pritchard retired yesterday

Mighty Fishes wrote:I know it wont affect too much fantasy wise but Frank Pritchard retired yesterday

Did this come as a shock to anyone else? It did for me; didn't realise he had played till 34 till I looked at his Bio.

SI wrote:

Agreed WL, he looks like he could be pretty flashy.  Is he talking to your mob?

Pretty sure i read the dogs have promised him the number 7 jersey but knights aren't keen on releasing him

Honey Badger wrote:

Pretty sure i read the dogs have promised him the number 7 jersey but knights aren't keen on releasing him

I think there's a couple of clubs after Cogger as well as the Bulldogs so he must be seen as having good potential.