2018 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 2

Alfie wrote:I'm interested in Fonua-Blake if he pips Lussick to the starting spot. I'm thinking he would likely score at about 40 points a game regularly with the odd but not rare Fifita-type score. Am I being a bit over-zealous as a Manly fan?

Good spot. With Manly losing Myles & Lawrence there's definitely a vacant starting spot to claim. Anyway Lussick will probably get suspended in round 1 haha.

White Lightning wrote:

Good spot. With Manly losing Myles & Lawrence there's definitely a vacant starting spot to claim. Anyway Lussick will probably get suspended in round 1 haha.

True true. A natural grub

Fonua-Blake has been tempting for a little while now, but always in and out of the team and with inconsistent game time. Certainly possible that he has a break out year, but for now I am skeptical

And back on Twal. he averaged 40 minutes in his debut season, and that was with Aaron Woods arou bd playing massive minutes.

Don't think Packer/Matulino will be replicating Woods's big game time, and with Twal having a bit more experience now, can't see him dropping gametime

Anyone going the Tedesco/T-Trbo double at f/b. Both the Roosters & Manly have a very nice opening 5 games which could see both go large.

White Lightning wrote:Anyone going the Tedesco/T-Trbo double at f/b. Both the Roosters & Manly have a very nice opening 5 games which could see both go large.

Surely you can't leave Ponga out

I thought about doing a Ted/TTrbo/GI power backline from the off, but the complication there is it'll probably mean 3 Origin players and a short team come byes. Dylan Edwards is another consideration. I don't get the Ponga love... he was scored ridiculously charitably last year - and that might not happen again, plus was fullback in a good team rather than a poor one. He'll probably go OK, but I don't see him as a guaranteed gun.

White Lightning wrote:Anyone going the Tedesco/T-Trbo double at f/b. Both the Roosters & Manly have a very nice opening 5 games which could see both go large.

These two are locked into my side + DCE. If i can find some value in my fwd pack i.e. murray, twal , sst that can hopefully ave close to 50 then i might go GI or Ponga too

Alfie wrote:I'm interested in Fonua-Blake if he pips Lussick to the starting spot. I'm thinking he would likely score at about 40 points a game regularly with the odd but not rare Fifita-type score. Am I being a bit over-zealous as a Manly fan?

Manly supporter here too. Just not sure of his ability to play big minutes to get out of the 'mid ranger' category

Turbo was way too inconsistent in the back end of the year for my liking to start with him this year I think.

White Lightning wrote:Anyone going the Tedesco/T-Trbo double at f/b. Both the Roosters & Manly have a very nice opening 5 games which could see both go large.

Teddy/Ponga/GI been the backline of pretty much every team ive made since the start now.

rhinoceroo wrote:I don't get the Ponga love... he was scored ridiculously charitably last year - and that might not happen again, plus was fullback in a good team rather than a poor one. He'll probably go OK, but I don't see him as a guaranteed gun.

Normally I would agree, and I have traditionally chosen my backs from more competitive teams because a stronger forward pack gives them more time with the ball in the oppositions' half and better backlines more opportunies for tries and try assists. But a few players break that mold and play like they have spiders on them, making tacklebreaks left right and centre. Teddy is the best example of course, playing in a poor Tigers outfit (sorry Tigers fans) and still averaging over 8 TBs a game because that is just his style of play. Angus Crichton is a forward who fits this billing too- The 7 tries didn't hurt his fantasy scores one bit but it was his fondness of a tacklebreak which made him a fantasy god (though his TBs are very different to Teddys, but its still +3 as far as fantasy is concerned). Don't get me wrong- Angus is a promising young talent outside of fantasy (ps- Fuck the Roosters!), but if he wasn't running up and down the defensive line playing slapsies with probing opposition hands all day then he would have averaged 45 last season and nobody would be lauding him fantasy wise. So watching Ponga last year I could not help but notice his elusive style of play. A lot of his TBs get scored on kick returns, so I don't think it matters as much whether the team around him is hot or not.  Excluding his horror last game when he got injured, Ponga would have averaged over 6 TBs per game. I am betting he continues at a similar level because much like Teddy, its just a part of his style of play.

Also, he’s likely to get the kicking duties

Alfie wrote:Also, he’s likely to get the kicking duties

That is definitely one stat where you would like him to be in a better side

still a little extra though, not to be sneezed at!

One concern I have with Tedesco. 

For the Tigers they put almost all their attack through him. Not sure that will be the case at the Roosters. Can see him getting the ball less in the attacking 20 this year.

On the other hand, his 5 tries last year was pretty low, so there is a good chance he will be able to better that this year.

Latest version of team planner.

New lookup sheet with 2017+2016 data in there.
Will get 2015 added as well at some point.
Some finals data missing, any other issues just let me know and I'll get on it when I have some time

http://www.mediafire.com/file/xvp7mqx5m53bzua/2018_Team_Planner_v1.0.xlsx

I'm also pretty wary of having too many origin players in my side this year

You get 12 trades between the 2 bye rounds.

If you have 17 players available in round 13, then the maximum you have available in round 17 is  16 players. And that assumes you have 0 origin players. And that the 4 non-players in the first bye all play in the 2nd bye. And that you spend maximum trades in the intervening 4 weeks trading out players who have played a bye for players yet to do so.

So basically the maximum number of scoring players you can have over the 2 bye rounds is 33 players.
And that gets reduced for every origin player you have, and for every player that misses their bye round due to injury/suspension/form.
And reduced further if you don't spend your max 12 trades between byes swapping bye players over.

I think Ponga is just one of those players who is going to get the TBs from the stato’s! There’s always a few guys that get ghost Tbs every game and Ponga looks like
One of them

Welshy wrote:I think Ponga is just one of those players who is going to get the TBs from the stato’s! There’s always a few guys that get ghost Tbs every game and Ponga looks like
One of them

They were so generous with them when he played last year. He looks like a great option.

Milchcow wrote:Latest version of team planner.

New lookup sheet with 2017+2016 data in there.
Will get 2015 added as well at some point.
Some finals data missing, any other issues just let me know and I'll get on it when I have some time

http://www.mediafire.com/file/xvp7mqx5m53bzua/2018_Team_Planner_v1.0.xlsx

Excellent additions mate. Thanks.

Fifita's run metres 2016 = 3,694 - 2017 = 3,167. That's a big drop & I think opposing teams in 2017 planned to stop his run metres with the first defender tying up his legs.