2018 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4

Wow Murray with a predicted Rd1 score of 62. Smithesque that is

rhinoceroo wrote:Don't remember McQueen being fantasy relevant even as a big minute player for a champion Souths team, but might be wrong.

priced at 27 to start the year. hes a .49 ppm player in the backrow so if you think he will get 70 - 80 mins a weeks thats decent value.

im considering him and whoever gets PODene's old spot

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Wow Murray with a predicted Rd1 score of 62. Smithesque that is

I noticed that, a bit over the top and can't see it happening.  I finished with him and he was round 45-50 in the last couple of games, but all base stats but would need the full 80 to get a 60, or a try obviously.  He was one of the first in my team, but not because of the predictions, I haven't looked much at those at all.

wolfking wrote:

I agree, the more I play around the more I'm thinking that you may need to even everything out and have some sort of depth on the bench.  If you roll the dice with too many rookies to fit your guns in and a majority of them fail, you're pretty much fucked and you'll just be trading dud cow for new cow and may risk falling behind quite quickly, especially if a percentage of your 17 aren't performing and you've tied your trades up in your duds.

Even though I said this myself, finding it hard to change this team atm;

Smith
JBrom Lodge
Harris Murray Arrow
Watson Carty
Milne Hiku
Teddy Ponga Nofo

Cook Lichaa RFM NAS

Croker Garvey Kikau Kennar

rhinoceroo wrote:Don't remember McQueen being fantasy relevant even as a big minute player for a champion Souths team, but might be wrong.

He is quite cheap this year due to injuries/playing in the backline last year.

Not a keeper but potential for decent money if he is an 80 minute backrower at the Tigers.

wolfking wrote:
Even though I said this myself, finding it hard to change this team atm;


Croker Garvey Kikau Kennar

Problem here is what happens if none of these 4 guys average more than low 20s.
Certainly you should expect at least 1 of them to be a dud. 2-3 of them being duds would not be a surprise, and all 4 being duds can not be discounted.

You have to hope that there is another cheapie that will make money that you can switch to, otherwise you will struggle.

That said, expensive players can flop too, and at least having cheapies as emergencies allows a stronger starting team.

Just a bit of a look at Lachlan Croker.

He has played 1 NRL game in his career. Starting five-eighth for Camberra round 2 in 2016

He scored 0 points in 38 minutes at 0ppm

8 tackles
3 run metres (slow down there buddy)
30 kick metres
1 kick defusal
1 error
1 penalty conceded
3 missed tackles.

If he gets an 80 minutes spot for Manly he might manage to score as many as 4 points in a single game. If he get lucky and he scores a try he might hit double figures.

Ok slight exaggeration there, but lots of people want to start him. What sort of numbers are you expecting.
Could well be just another Kane Elgey - who needed to score tries just to get past 25 points in a game.

D
C
E

wolfking wrote:

Even though I said this myself, finding it hard to change this team atm;

Smith
JBrom Lodge
Harris Murray Arrow
Watson Carty
Milne Hiku
Teddy Ponga Nofo

Cook Lichaa RFM NAS

Croker Garvey Kikau Kennar

Wolfie until TLT this is a solid squad. I know this is impossible for you but
I do not believe you have to tinker.

Milchcow wrote:

Problem here is what happens if none of these 4 guys average more than low 20s.
Certainly you should expect at least 1 of them to be a dud. 2-3 of them being duds would not be a surprise, and all 4 being duds can not be discounted.

You have to hope that there is another cheapie that will make money that you can switch to, otherwise you will struggle.

That said, expensive players can flop too, and at least having cheapies as emergencies allows a stronger starting team.

i'm not sold on Kikau and Kennar mainly, just hoping some more definite cheapies comes into play as we get closer. As you said, it's hard to pick which way to go, stronger starting squad and risk your bench or level out, tough. At the moment though, it's hard to see many worthwhile options to have sit as emergencies for more money, I finding it hard to justify the coin in beefing them up.

Trajan wrote:

Wolfie until TLT this is a solid squad. I know this is impossible for you but
I do not believe you have to tinker.

I know mate haha, I'll take comfort in that but I'll still tinker but will probably just keep coming back to this team right now lol.

Milchcow wrote:
Just a bit of a look at Lachlan Croker.

He has played 1 NRL game in his career. Starting five-eighth for Camberra round 2 in 2016

He scored 0 points in 38 minutes at 0ppm

8 tackles
3 run metres (slow down there buddy)
30 kick metres
1 kick defusal
1 error
1 penalty conceded
3 missed tackles.

If he gets an 80 minutes spot for Manly he might manage to score as many as 4 points in a single game. If he get lucky and he scores a try he might hit double figures.

Ok slight exaggeration there, but lots of people want to start him. What sort of numbers are you expecting.
Could well be just another Kane Elgey - who needed to score tries just to get past 25 points in a game.

In that case he is overpriced!

Milchcow wrote:
Just a bit of a look at Lachlan Croker.

He has played 1 NRL game in his career. Starting five-eighth for Camberra round 2 in 2016

He scored 0 points in 38 minutes at 0ppm

8 tackles
3 run metres (slow down there buddy)
30 kick metres
1 kick defusal
1 error
1 penalty conceded
3 missed tackles.

If he gets an 80 minutes spot for Manly he might manage to score as many as 4 points in a single game. If he get lucky and he scores a try he might hit double figures.

Ok slight exaggeration there, but lots of people want to start him. What sort of numbers are you expecting.
Could well be just another Kane Elgey - who needed to score tries just to get past 25 points in a game.

Yeah, I think having him as a starting half would be pretty nuts. It would be like having a Lord Elgey or Feeny as a starter but based on what we have so far in the way of cash cows, I think as an emergency he'll suffice, if he gets the starting gig and keeps it obviously.

wolfking wrote:

Yeah, I think having him as a starting half would be pretty nuts.  It would be like having a Lord Elgey or Feeny as a starter but based on what we have so far in the way of cash cows, I think as an emergency he'll suffice, if he gets the starting gig and keeps it obviously.

Yeah, unless trials throw up some better options, he pretty much has to be in your 21 somewhere. But I think its a big risk putting him in your 17.

What are peoples thoughts on Leilua this year? I currently have him in my team but am considering running Milne instead (with Aitken as my other CTR) and strengthening one of my WFB or bench spots.

I feel like he is due for a bounce back to form....but if Milne can score within (say) 10-15 points of him, I'd be better off spending the money elsewhere I think

Interestng Fox Sports article
https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nrl-premiership/analysis-nrl-clubs-to-mimic-melbourne-storms-premiership-winning-style/news-story/17da685e4d71ac6980ae41a5bb5431d3


NRL clubs to mimic Melbourne Storm’s premiership winning style

THERE’S a shift coming in the way the game is played.
Literally.

Foxsports.com.au has received a tip-off that several NRL sides are overhauling their attack.

Why? You can thank Melbourne.

The Storm shifted more than any other team last season. So why mimic their style?
It’s a proven method. After all, they won the premiership.
The game continues to evolve and the Storm have been at the forefront of the evolution for many years. It’s common for teams to copy the winning style year to year and with the 2018 season less than five weeks away, teams have been practicing their shifts and encouraging their men to roam in their opposed sessions.

You’ll see it once the trials kick-off.

Already Cronulla and South Sydney are two of the teams working on heavy shifts in a bid to get their more creative players on the ball. Last month Shane Flanagan revealed he would give new five-eighth Matt Moylan and centre Josh Dugan a license to roam. New Brisbane recruit Jack Bird is another player with the flexibility to switch sides despite playing right centre.

Last year the Storm would play to an edge before getting their heavy hitters involved on the other side of the field. For example they work to the left side before shifting back to the right which would see the centre jump into dummy half. Cameron Munster would give it to Cameron Smith, he’d pass to Cooper Cronk, who would send the ball over to the corner for Billy Slater to chime in and likely put Suliasi Vunivalu away.

This is a three-pass shift. The idea is you work sideline to sideline and try to catch the defence out because they’ve worked up a channel. These shifts are being rehearsed ad nauseam. It will be interesting to watch the trial games over the coming weeks to see how well they’re executed and whether the coaches persist with this style of play deep into the season.

It’s a style that limits the amount of time the ball is in a big man’s hands and could prove a catalyst to bringing the best out of the Burgess twins as it saves fatigue. It’s no secret George and Tom can get reckless and try to push a pass but with a focus on shifting, the big men may only carry the ball once per set.

It’ll be interesting to see how many teams adopt this style throughout the trial period.

Would that affect fantasy? Does that mean backs would kind of become more valuable than the forwards? Wouldn't that style of play become predictable if every team does the same thing?

Good luck mimicking the Storm style without players as good as Smith, Cronk and Slater.

Potentially, that's why I posted it.

Forwards making less hit ups
less tackles in the middle of the ruck
more run meters for backs
more TA's for these roaming players

Yeah remember last time other teams tried to "mimick" the storm?

And like, who knew that shifting the ball effectively would tire an opposition defense. Key word is effectively...

I am all for more exciting footy. But coavhes need to come up with plans that work with the players they have.  Not the players they wish they had.

Ive been wondering for years why thr big burgess boys dont get used as a wide runner when in attacking 20. And why not throw taumalolo into the backline movement every now and then.. sometimes easier said than done but even if they dont get the ball, defense will be shitting

*am also aware that its usually big runs from those guys in the middle that drag the defense in and create the space for thr next play.