2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 21

wolfking wrote:

haha, thanks mate, Lichaa for 50.  Wish I traded him to MBye last week but oh well, that's the way it goes.  Still a bit risky running MBye in the halves I think, but I'm sticking with it. As I said, don't like playing Carty, but I think Rochow is a good pickup still and leaves me to have a look at Hastings, JMK and even Luai.

And yes, hopefully Souths can go 2 in a row.

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:

I've brought Mbye into the halves.

Bulldogs vs Rabbits = Mbye vs Walker in my halves. Please be high scoring

Chewie wrote:This Sezer to the Bulldogs rumour is putting a bit of a damper on trading JMK in this week. Maybe Hastings is the safer option

Cap'n Ranta wrote:With Kennar out this will be my first time I have an NPR to loop and I'll be getting my free look at Kikau tonight. 35+ is my baseline to keep him there with only Rochow or Fualalo as my other trade in options.

Going through it all I realised that this years comp is going to be very different. Sorry if this has been pointed out before.

The ideal final team I see for this year is 19 guns and 2 NPRs. These NPRs would be in your starting WFB and starting HLF postions (Could realistically be any position you want but HLF and WFB tend to have the highest variance in scores).

Your 18-21 would look something like the following

18. SJ / Widdop
19. DCE
20. Rapana
21. RTS

You'd only bother doing this once you had a full 17 up and running but this will give you

a) coverage (assuming your 13-17 cover other valuable positions (2RF, FRF, HOK) any of these guys would be a good bench inclusion when you run out of trades
b) a chance to look at a volatile player capable of 100's but also with a low base (i.e. Rapana or SJ) with a more consistent backup player if they flame out
c) For H2H players it lets you act with more knowledge (i.e. more games played). If you have the lead you can match players to secure a win or switch to try and catchup
d) for Overall a chance to play the odds I.e. SJ is in 50% of the teams above and he did alright (45) whereas Widdop is only in 10% and might catch you up a few points. Worst case and SJ goes big you can just take his score anyway (non-asymmetric risk profiles at play)

Obviously like others have pointed out this has drawbacks

a) no guarantee of match orders working in your favour for optimum looping. However this is only 1 example of a double loop setup. This same group of players could have my two NPRs at 16 and 17 to loop in the two best of my 18-21 which may help in a week where match orders aren't as helpful as they could be.
b) This needs at least another 1.5M in cash to work with 2 more gun players than you would for just a final 17.
c) you'll likely burn more trades to get a final 19 than you would to get a strong final 17. You may have to spend trades to get ideal looping candidates too. This would affect your origin plans as you'd want a few more trades than usual to pull this off.

So while ranked subs and locking Captains may have prevented the Captains loophole (which I like) but replacing it with rolling lockouts and ranked subs means they have created double and possibly triple loophole options (Consider the above but use DPP guys like Walker and Mbye) where it rewards you for tactically arranging a team rather than giving you the 1 AE with the lowest score.

So congratulations Fanhub you have replaced a small but risky exploit (only 1 loophole but you must have 17 or less players and NPRs must be true NPRs. With 25 in a squad that meant 8 NPRs and no backups) with a repeatable multi position trick that you can use with just the 1 or 2 NPRs. Glad they made squad sizes smaller otherwise we'd have even more loophole chances.........

TLDR: Loophole is a valid strategy that the best teams will likely need to use to win. Doesn't mean I have to like it (not in the spirit of what the game is meant to be) but planning a final team around it would seem wise.

my tv broke wrote:

Inglis vs Hopoate. COME ON GREGGY

Chewie wrote:This Sezer to the Bulldogs rumour is putting a bit of a damper on trading JMK in this week. Maybe Hastings is the safer option

Loomer wrote:

I think Sezer to Bulldogs and Tolman leaving is bollocks rumour and did you see my post previous page of Hastings last game 65m at hooker for 12pts

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

I like where you are going with this mate, and I agree, loopholing will likely be a key strategy to winning this years comp - I have no doubt about that. You have gone one step further than I have with this in the sense that you are looking to the end make up of your squad. While Im not sure a 19 gun squad is doable, the premise that you compile a team that can take advantage of the loophole weekly in a position with high variation (WFB) is a sound one I think.

Given you are thinking a bit about this, have a think about how much money you'll need to make to get a gun 17 side, gun 18 side, gun 19 side, and therefore how many trades you'll likely need to make to get there. I don't think a gun 19 is possible this year, and depending on how gun your team is, I reckon a gun 17 may also be tricky. In addition, the harder you go at that end point strategy, the more you have to soften on the bye week strategy. There's likely a nice balance in there somewhere but when you throw injuries, origin selection, and team selection into the mix, its gonna be a tough one to figure out.

Anyway, let me know what you think about how much $ and how many trades you'll need to get to 17,18, and 19 gun squads respectively. I had a bit of a play with figuring out a 17 man squad with 4 gun hookers yesterday - posted on Booze's thread.

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Something tells me I'm gonna pay for trading Merrin

Milchcow wrote:
I think 19 big scorers going to be achievable for a lot of teams.

Plenty of cheapies making big $, and plenty of expensive guys dropping cash.

Smith, Teddy, Lolo, Gallen all going to be available at a discount, amongst others

mattnz wrote:



Has been a gun at 5/8 before, if he performs, can see him keeping Maloney out when Cleary returns.

No Worries wrote:What's gong on with Kennar
??