by Rippin and Tearin Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:37 am
Cap'n Ranta wrote:
I've only done it for my team. To compare to the numbers you posted in Booze's thead just add 5M to all the numbers I give below but I can see 19 guns is hard.
Currently I have Smith, Macca, Cook, Murray, TTurbo, Tedesco and Ponga as 7 of my 19 guns (~$5M). The rest of my team is currently worth 5.76M and project at their current averages to get me around 7.87M.
I worked out to get my remaining 12 premium guns (Friend, LoLo, RTS, SJ, DCE, Cleary, Fifita, Tapau, JTurbo, Brown, Fergo and Gagai) and 2 x 212k NPRs I'd need 9.68M.
For a 17 or 18 man approach I can just add some more 212k guys in
Current Team: 7.87M
17 Guns: 8.57M
18 Guns: 9.14M
19 Guns: 9.68M
At this point I need either some super cows to come along or to make compromises on/time getting in my final guns.
The goal is to get to 19 but not at the expense of my 17 if that makes sense. No point running SST or NAS instead of Fifita just to get to 19. I can't really set this out in stone but this strategy needs me to:
- be patient with guys like Kennar to extract all the cash (low BE, have cover with Isaako and Hiku)
- Identify the next wave of great Cash Cows (everyone needs to do this anyway as most people will be short on a gun 17)
- Jump on guns at the right time (went with Macca and Murray last week as I know I want them in my 17 and this was likely their cheapest)
- Know when to compromise (Instead of RTS and DCE as my 18/19 maybe I go Walker and Milford)
- Take some risks (Lolo might be replaced by Gallen but theres some trust needed that Gallens first three weeks aren't a sign of regression when he gets a few good scores)
19 is the ideal number I'd like to get to but it doesn't really look possible to have that without some luck along the way. But you need to be thinking about it now if you want a chance to achieve it. Really helps me put my current trades in perspective.
Awesome man, some good stuff there.
I think the next step from there has to be a reasonable estimate of how much money you can expect on average from a CC and then how many trades you'll need to make to get there.
So from where you are now (with 7 guys set in stone) no matter if you want 17, 18, or 19 guns you'll use 14 trades to get the remainder of your final team.
Lets say conservatively you've used all your trades at this point, that means you have 28 left - 14 = 14 to make your money for your final team + cover for injuries etc and for arguments sake lets just say no trades for any bye strategy.
I reckon you can reasonably say on average you can expect 100-150k for each new CC. If we make the case that 10 will come along from here, that's somewhere between $1m and $1.5m that you can make, which could in theory get you to the 18 gun team and still leave 4 trades for the run home. I think the key might be in your 4th point, compromising some of the big guns for smaller ones. That might just get you over the line. And with your strategy, I think that makes most sense in the WFB and Half spot. Guys like Walker, Widdop, Mbye, Milf, Croft & Nikorima even can smash out big scores every now and then and if you are able to get free looks at them with looping, then having a couple of them in your 19 would make sense (if you can get them cheap).
Last edited by Rippin and Tearin on Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:40 am; edited 1 time in total
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