2018 NRL.com fantasy thread part 29

SI wrote:

As a tragic bye planner, I haven't even really looked this year. I think the maths was done and it was nigh on impossible to have 17 in both rounds? I could be wrong though so can someone confirm. I will probably start looking now to maximise numbers. But I think the Rankings will be even less clearer over that period than usual.

I think I'm just going to use the bye rounds to guide the order in which I bring in Guns (ie target round 13 guns until then and round 17 guns afterwards).

I had a massively better year last year by avoiding breakout players bar the standard CS9 + 2 stalwarts. Good start again this year by avoiding the Lolo type players that have regressed. Always looking for value. Let downs for me so far SST Merrin Croft all quickly addressed

Shumway wrote:

It'd be an absolutely extreme approach to try and I think you're right. but I think the main reason is the limit of 2 trades per week. You just couldn't upgrade enough cows at the right time. A lot would make their cash at a similar trajectory, so you couldn't upgrade at the optimal times. But theoretically I think the value from cows may actually exceed the points from guns early in the season.

That's it, trades and timing are the grounding factor. Which is why the Guns and Cows theory is somewhat relevant. It just relies on making the right choices to start, or fixing the bad calls early with out smashing trades.

SI wrote:

A lot of the posters here were originally from the Sportal forums mate. Sportal then became Sporting News Australia and ditched the forums and Random set Fanatics up. The Lurker was Sportal's answer to The Mole. The Lurker had roughly the same strike rate as The Mole. Suffice to say it was embarrassing for all of us to be tentatively associated with The Lurker.

Who knows what happens behind closed doors but in regards The Lurker, I don't think that many people have great faith in him. In saying that, he/she used to be pretty funny, particularly when taking on players like Gallen in ongoing media battles.

Didn't someone post a BS rumour on here specifically for it to get picked up by the lurker? @NoWorries maybe?

Chewie wrote:Batching it this weekend.  
 

Looking forward to catching a few more games, a few more drinks and a few more page 51 parties than ussual 

Working tomorrow but there's a bottle of Gentleman's at home that I might put a dent in tonight to celebrate the return of Captain Cam!

Mearcats wrote:For today's topic of discussion, I'd be interested to know how people feel strategies have changed this year in comparison to years gone by. What are your plans regarding byes etc? Do you feel the system set up this year makes it more achievable to get a good shot at close to 17 top tier players instead of scrounging for points? How, if it all, has that affected your trade strategy so far this season?

Early days I know but I personally always find it interesting to see how people like to move strategically in a game that can be a lot of luck of the draw each week.

Theoretically you should be able to get a better 17 due to the bench not being position specific. The issue I think will be making enough cash to do it with less roster positions for cows, the other side of that is that we shouldn't miss cows this year due to not having space for them at that position.

SI wrote:

Working tomorrow but there's a bottle of Gentleman's at home that I might put a dent in tonight to celebrate the return of Captain Cam!

Or to drown away your sorrows when Captain Cam fails to deliver...

Krump wrote:

SI wrote:

A lot of the posters here were originally from the Sportal forums mate. Sportal then became Sporting News Australia and ditched the forums and Random set Fanatics up. The Lurker was Sportal's answer to The Mole. The Lurker had roughly the same strike rate as The Mole. Suffice to say it was embarrassing for all of us to be tentatively associated with The Lurker.

Who knows what happens behind closed doors but in regards The Lurker, I don't think that many people have great faith in him. In saying that, he/she used to be pretty funny, particularly when taking on players like Gallen in ongoing media battles.

Didn't someone post a BS rumour on here specifically for it to get picked up by the lurker? @NoWorries maybe?

Can't remember but certainly sounds like something No Worries would do!

Chewie wrote:

SI wrote:

Working tomorrow but there's a bottle of Gentleman's at home that I might put a dent in tonight to celebrate the return of Captain Cam!

Or to drown away your sorrows when Captain Cam fails to deliver...

OMG Chewie, you've changed!!!

Any more goss on Corey Norman to the Raiders. Hope its not true. Although ive seen the video, the guy has a fun way of drinking Canadian Club

deathbywarriors wrote:

SI wrote:

As a tragic bye planner, I haven't even really looked this year. I think the maths was done and it was nigh on impossible to have 17 in both rounds? I could be wrong though so can someone confirm. I will probably start looking now to maximise numbers. But I think the Rankings will be even less clearer over that period than usual.

I think I'm just going to use the bye rounds to guide the order in which I bring in Guns (ie target round 13 guns until then and round 17 guns afterwards).

Makes sense. So guns bought in before 13 stay and won't be traded? My old strategy I sideways traded a lot through the byes, guns for guns for points.

SI wrote:

Makes sense. So guns bought in before 13 stay and won't be traded? My old strategy I sideways traded a lot through the byes, guns for guns for points.

Everyones looking at getting in Round 13 guns but has anyone thought of bringing in Round 17 Guns and then for those RD 17 guns you have also from now till RD 13 bring in some performing Middies/Cows in those positions that play round 13. In the time you have between RD 13 and 17 you upgrade those RD 13 Cows/Middies to RD 17 Guns??

StormTrooper96 wrote:

Everyones looking at getting in Round 13 guns but has anyone thought of bringing in Round 17 Guns and then for those RD 17 guns you have also from now till RD 13 bring in some performing Middies/Cows in those positions that play round 13. In the time you have between RD 13 and 17 you upgrade those RD 13 Cows/Middies to RD 17 Guns??

*MIND BLOWN*

Krump wrote:
Theoretically you should be able to get a better 17 due to the bench not being position specific. The issue I think will be making enough cash to do it with less roster positions for cows, the other side of that is that we shouldn't miss cows this year due to not having space for them at that position.

The info that I have is that you could get a full 17 by round 13 (taking into account 4 trades on major rounds) but would only be able to get about 15 for round 17, and that would be max trading throughout the period. It would also mean using 12+ trades in three rounds. This obviously does not take into account origin players or what you started with.

I play (or attempt to) a pretty balanced gun to cow mix early in the season. In years gone by this would mean that I would try and select a few of my guns and cows in that ratio based on when their byes were. I.e. Rabbits and Parra the last few seasons so I would look at guys from those sides to fill cow gaps or one or two guns spots. With players like CWalker and King Guth it worked out but usually the cows side was far less effective. It meant that I missed some large money generators early on (Crichton) and fell off towards the back end of the year.

This year with the format that you've mentioned regarding not needing to select specify players to positions has made it somewhat easier. On the flip side, it's been somewhat more difficult in working out how to manage building those positions up. I am going along the same sort of lines as whoever it was that said they're using a teams bye to plan on when to bring the gun from that side in. What concerns me is that if someone that has a rd13 bye that I want following that round for the remainder of the season goes gangbusters in the next few weeks and I have to end up paying a premium for them then I've basically not improved on last years strategy at all.

I think I will be happy if I can get 15 solid players on the park. As it currently stands I have 10 available for rd13 although Inglis and Doughy are two of those who probably will be gone from my team in the near future. If I can get that number to 15 in the next few weeks prior to the 4 trades week I feel I'll be in a pretty healthy position.

StormTrooper96 wrote:

Everyones looking at getting in Round 13 guns but has anyone thought of bringing in Round 17 Guns and then for those RD 17 guns you have also from now till RD 13 bring in some performing Middies/Cows in those positions that play round 13. In the time you have between RD 13 and 17 you upgrade those RD 13 Cows/Middies to RD 17 Guns??

It's a solid strategy, if the players are there to fill that criteria. I hadn't looked into it that far due to the fact that we had such a good crop of early cows that have performed well, so barring injuries etc, I don't see there being a great deal more throughout the year. Would love for a few more to come along, or a couple of fringe guys in that middie range really start to step up their output and that would be beneficial but for the moment I am happy to focus on each week.

Mearcats wrote:For today's topic of discussion, I'd be interested to know how people feel strategies have changed this year in comparison to years gone by. What are your plans regarding byes etc? Do you feel the system set up this year makes it more achievable to get a good shot at close to 17 top tier players instead of scrounging for points? How, if it all, has that affected your trade strategy so far this season?

Early days I know but I personally always find it interesting to see how people like to move strategically in a game that can be a lot of luck of the draw each week.

It's caught me a bit by surprise but getting the balance of cash vs points is hard. With 4 less "free" cash generating spots its made the points vs $s a harder trade off. I think its being hidden with lots of cows having overperformed this season with guns being a bit down (Kikau avg:47 vs Smith avg: 52).  

This year I have to roll with what I've got but have found my cash isn't focused on my top 17 enough and the team needs to be flexible. For next year:

- 3 Cheap CTRs is here to stay for me. Gun money is wasted here IMO but depth is good to play matchups/form.
- Focus on cows in my 18-21. Extra money in the 18-21 is leaving points on the field.
- Depth is overrated......... Some cows always seem to pull well above their weight. Don't be too afraid to have a few more cows start the year.
- Try to get at least 1 gun at every position but don't stack positions too heavily. This year I had Smith, Cook and Macca as well as TTurbo, Ponga and Tedesco.  Macca I bought in at rd 3 but the rest were starters. In hindsight my team would have been better served/flexible with Turbo or Tedesco being DCE, SJ or even Cleary. I've missed the Thompson, Mbye or any future value in these positions as I've locked it in too early. Not enough positions to lock stuff so early.
- Don't put depth in my gun positions (unless its super good value). Have a max of 1 questionable starter in each position (1-13 except centres). i.e. Croft, Cartwright and Croker needed more depth/strength as my starting halves. Katoa was not needed to backup TTurbo, Tedesco and Ponga.....
- Value rules all. Try to pick guys with value before locking in guys I like/guns.

Bird playing half with Niko out “injured”.

Will be interesting what happens this week with the donkeys. I’m thinking warriors by 40. Hiku and Tohu for doubles!

SI wrote:

Makes sense. So guns bought in before 13 stay and won't be traded? My old strategy I sideways traded a lot through the byes, guns for guns for points.

That's the plan, unless they get long term injuries of course. But we all know how best laid plans go in this game

Cap'n Ranta wrote:

It's caught me a bit by surprise but getting the balance of cash vs points is hard. With 4 less "free" cash generating spots its made the points vs $s a harder trade off. I think its being hidden with lots of cows having overperformed this season with guns being a bit down (Kikau avg:47 vs Smith avg: 52).  

This year I have to roll with what I've got but have found my cash isn't focused on my top 17 enough and the team needs to be flexible. For next year:

- 3 Cheap CTRs is here to stay for me. Gun money is wasted here IMO but depth is good to play matchups/form.
- Focus on cows in my 18-21. Extra money in the 18-21 is leaving points on the field.
- Depth is overrated......... Some cows always seem to pull well above their weight. Don't be too afraid to have a few more cows start the year.
- Try to get at least 1 gun at every position but don't stack positions too heavily. This year I had Smith, Cook and Macca as well as TTurbo, Ponga and Tedesco.  Macca I bought in at rd 3 but the rest were starters. In hindsight my team would have been better served/flexible with Turbo or Tedesco being DCE, SJ or even Cleary. I've missed the Thompson, Mbye or any future value in these positions as I've locked it in too early. Not enough positions to lock stuff so early.
- Don't put depth in my gun positions (unless its super good value). Have a max of 1 questionable starter in each position (1-13 except centres). i.e. Croft, Cartwright and Croker needed more depth/strength as my starting halves. Katoa was not needed to backup TTurbo, Tedesco and Ponga.....
- Value rules all. Try to pick guys with value before locking in guys I like/guns.

Agreed. The new format's flaws have been hidden. None of the traditional guns fired to start the season bar Macca.

I highlighted the key points from my perspective. Value value value! I tripped myself up not having a value half but got DCE before it was too late so crisis averted. It would be interesting to be able to go back through your previous weeks to identify where your decision-making approach was flawed or good.

Cap'n Ranta wrote:

It's caught me a bit by surprise but getting the balance of cash vs points is hard. With 4 less "free" cash generating spots its made the points vs $s a harder trade off. I think its being hidden with lots of cows having overperformed this season with guns being a bit down (Kikau avg:47 vs Smith avg: 52).  

This year I have to roll with what I've got but have found my cash isn't focused on my top 17 enough and the team needs to be flexible. For next year:

- 3 Cheap CTRs is here to stay for me. Gun money is wasted here IMO but depth is good to play matchups/form. Starting the year with Mitchell and GI is easily one of my biggest regrets so far this year. I think Mitchell will be worth the investment in the end but I could have just as easily started with Hiku and Isaako for a bucket load less money for the same output. TBH, I don't think I would even run three cheap CTRS, I'd ride two with the flexibility of a DPP WFB/CTR to cover.
- Focus on cows in my 18-21. Extra money in the 18-21 is leaving points on the field. Another way that I somewhat wasted money this year. Due to my uncertainty over the way things would operate in the new format I went for decent positional coverage along with balance the whole way through my 21. Definitely would not do that next year, focus purely on money generators from 18-21.
- Depth is overrated......... Some cows always seem to pull well above their weight. Don't be too afraid to have a few more cows start the year. Agreed. Though depth and balance are two very different things I feel. You can have depth in CC's that are DPP. That is enough for me. The unknown of a CC sort of counteracts the "balance feeling" if that makes sense.
- Try to get at least 1 gun at every position but don't stack positions too heavily. This year I had Smith, Cook and Macca as well as TTurbo, Ponga and Tedesco.  Macca I bought in at rd 3 but the rest were starters. In hindsight my team would have been better served/flexible with Turbo or Tedesco being DCE, SJ or even Cleary. I've missed the Thompson, Mbye or any future value in these positions as I've locked it in too early. Not enough positions to lock stuff so early.
- Don't put depth in my gun positions (unless its super good value). Have a max of 1 questionable starter in each position (1-13 except centres). i.e. Croft, Cartwright and Croker needed more depth/strength as my starting halves. Katoa was not needed to backup TTurbo, Tedesco and Ponga.....
- Value rules all. Try to pick guys with value before locking in guys I like/guns.

The value point is good. I was kicking myself early in the year for not picking SJ. Still want him in my side as it stands but my choice instead was DCE which in hindsight has worked out pretty well for me. I also feel not starting with Smith this year wouldn't have hurt. I had Cook and could've gone for a cheaper second option at hooker (Griffin etc) but was a little stuck in my ways. It may still save me a trade which I'll look at as the silver lining but the question that will nag me is at what expense.

I like mate, have added a few further thoughts at each point.