2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 31

Mearcats wrote:Lolo... Although a lot has been said regarding Lolo and how he has been going this year, I think a lot of it comes back to expectations and pricing. After such a monstrous season last year he obviously started with a price tag to match that. The problem is our expectations as fantasy peeps. Did we really expect him to replicate that?

Lets disregard this past weeks score for a minute. Over the opening 5 rounds Lolo was averaging 45.2 which is not really terrible. Not keeper material perhaps but not terrible. He still averaged 145mts and 26 tackles in each of those games. That's still 40 points in base stats. Now for a second rower that is lowish but you don't buy Lolo for base stats.

Currently priced at a 52 average he is basically in the same boat as Surgess. Not going to make you a tonne of money but the ceiling is what we look for. In a struggling cows outfit is there any reason to expect that the 81 from the weekend will go back to being the norm? Or will his current scoring trend (68, 38, 30, 52, 38, 81) continue. The ceiling is tempting and he probably won't get a whole lot cheaper than he currently is.

He's 50k dearer than Burgess for the same (current) output. Also owned by 35.8%! Until the cows start finding some form or he goes back to back on consistent weeks I'll hold off.

Cheers.

Reverse trade.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:On Rochow I think you can discard last week (I looked at the stats just before half time and he'd made like 1 tackle or something). And I think you can largely discard his first storm game. You take the average of the rest, deduct a few points to be on the safe side, and I reckon you'll decide he's a hold. IMO he is a good candidate to hold till 13 and trade up after.

If he has a poor score once every 3 games, you can't just discard it.

I think most of the work regarding Gosie was done last week. Obviously still a bit of a flavour saver for those who waited a week but I won't rehash him.

Of the flavours of the week Su'a as a cashie/cash out and Surgess seem to be the better options.

Rapture_NRL wrote:Hey guys. Currently floundering with my team atm. Have only scored twice over 800, with scores stuck in the 700s. For whatever reason, I can't see glaring issues with my team but they're just not bringing home the bacon.

Su'a I think he's a trap and I think a bit too expensive to be a cash out. His minutes aren't consistent, and his scores are the same.

Gosiewski is a better cash out option because at least he's playing and he shouldn't drop too much cash, also plays round 13.

I'll probably avoid both. I'm cashing out to Gelling (Kata is injured) or Paseka (absolute giant). Bottom price.

But who else do I bring in? I want Macca over Smith, but can't bring him in until next week. I can bring in Matterson though. Is he going to be a gun? Or should I look at Burgess or Guerra (POD)?

Gelling - I would have to guess Beale may be ahead of him either immediately or in a week or two. You are not going to get anything of note out of Gelling.
Paseka - how many minutes did he play and are you honestly expecting him to average above 20 and stay in the 17 permanently?

Basically I think you're bringing in a big red dot far too soon in the year for only having a squad of 21.

Milchcow wrote:

If he has a poor score once every 3 games, you can't just discard it.

Of course, but that’s not what I am doing, hence the justification. I could elaborate if u’d like but my point is I think both those games are anomalies u can to some extent discount when projecting his scores moving forward.

No surgess for me, can't afford it.. About 30k short. Can do Doueihi to Jacks in one trade. Not sure if I'll go goisk.

So any chance Kotoa (Sharks) could make his way back to first grade this week? I thought Edrick Lee actually looked pretty good against the Dragon's, at least while the Sharks were able to field a team, but he's not rated by many people for a reason.

How did Kotoa go in NSW cup last week?

Reports and rumours that NRL could possibly register Todd Carney as early as today

@filthridden I need to cash out and I think Su'a and Gosiewski are trappish but cost an extra 80k

Lodge to Surgess (chasing points)
Douhi to Su'a (Chasing cash)

Leaves me with plenty of players id happily hold for rest of the season, with most (all but Hiku and Cronk)players Im happy to sit on for a few weeks whilst they make money (and hopefully score points).

Vanish wrote:So any chance Kotoa (Sharks) could make his way back to first grade this week? I thought Edrick Lee actually looked pretty good against the Dragon's, at least while the Sharks were able to field a team, but he's not rated by many people for a reason.

How did Kotoa go in NSW cup last week?

https://www.nswrl.com.au/KnightsJets-Rd6-2018

Winger Sione Katoa then finished off the Jets’ scoring with eight minutes left when he finished a right-side raid with a brilliant chip and chase for himself to score Newtown’s 11th and final try in the right corner.

Euele and Magoulis all had good games too apparently

DPP's have been added.

Rapture_NRL wrote:@filthridden I need to cash out and I think Su'a and Gosiewski are trappish but cost an extra 80k

When it comes to cows/cashouts sometimes you gotta figure out the best of a bad bunch.

I grabbed Gossie last week on the hunch that he'd be an 80min starter.
36 points with pretty much only base stats - gotta be happy with that.

If he keeps playing 80mins for the next month or so, I'm pretty happy.

It could've completely gone the other way.

Go with your gut or go with the facts but know what you are getting.

JFH gets the DPP! woo!

@Rapture

Can't go wrong with either Sua or Gosie, both have cash to make. Hell even if Sua get's 25's for the next month he should earn somewhere around 150K (If not more?)

@filthridden true that. At least Gosie is scoring some points. Thanks for the advice mate. Any thoughts on what gun to bring in? I'm not sold on Lolo

Smokies-

1. Bird - Really looks to only be a viable option at HLF when getting more traffic directed to him. 29 tackles without a miss making up over 70% of his points on the weekend. Compare that to when he is at CTR the highest was less than half of that.

Base stats at half see him getting about 35 points per week. Obvs this is a very small sample though so I wouldn't put a great deal of trust in it. Can break tackles though and that bumps him up over the 40.

In short, unless we get confirmation that he's going to stay at half, it's a no from me. A lot better ctr options out there.

2. King Guth - Looks good. One game back from a serious knee injury he scores 40 points. 11 tackles, three tbs, 112mts gained, 2 kicks defused, an offload and a try save. Not one single negative to speak of. More importantly, not really one significant attacking stat to speak of (barring the three TBs) so you could almost consider all of these as base stats. I know a purist will say a TB is an attacking stat but DCE grabbed three getting out of his in goal on the weekend for a 2mt gain, hardly an attacking play. Currently his BE is climbing though it's only 46. If he averages 40 he'll get down to 625k but that's about as cheap as he'll get I would say.

The only negatives I can see with Gutherson is the uncertainty surrounding his injury still (though must have surely put a few of those demons to bed on the weekend) and Parras problems. Unfortunately Parras problems are Gutho's problems. A team that is struggling in attack tends to starve a FB of attacking opportunities. He's also not the crab tackle break type like others in the position.

I might give him one more week but he's definitely on my radar.

3. Jacks - I guess his only real concern is job security. If Bellyaches words meant anything you would think the position is now his to lose, but then, who ever trusts coaches? Asides from that, here's the positives. He is heavily under priced. Priced at 29.8 for a 35+ averaging player. Averaging only 35 would see him make 50k in three weeks. If he has long term security in his role and can bump that average up to 40 he'll be worthwhile. Needs to scalp a few more kick meters (111 to Munsters 186 this past weekend) but that should be achievable with a more consistent role in the team.

A lot more tempting than any other of the halves in that price bracket, could also be a good trade in for Doughy for those who are still holding and looking for one more stepping stone to a gun.

Rapture_NRL wrote:@filthridden true that. At least Gosie is scoring some points. Thanks for the advice mate. Any thoughts on what gun to bring in? I'm not sold on Lolo

Guerra is a nice POD, barely gets talked about but quietly going about his work. If you are buying him then do it sooner rather than later before he keeps going up in price.

Is it time to start worrying about Friend's output? He's completely stunk it up the past few weeks. I've had him since rd1 (and he started well....54, 57, 70....followed by 36, 20 and 31 the past 3 weeks).

filthridden wrote:

When it comes to cows/cashouts sometimes you gotta figure out the best of a bad bunch.

I grabbed Gossie last week on the hunch that he'd be an 80min starter.
36 points with pretty much only base stats - gotta be happy with that.

If he keeps playing 80mins for the next month or so, I'm pretty happy.

It could've completely gone the other way.

Go with your gut or go with the facts but know what you are getting.

I took a stab in the dark with Jacks. He played a solid game, him and smithy really sharing the KM's and I think he can average 40+.