by WT Winfield Tue May 01, 2018 4:04 am
lewis9966 wrote:
Rapana had a great game last week and still scored average, what is making you go for him?
I don't think he's lost his gun status after 8 rounds. He averaged 47 and 50 past two seasons and has a history of some dud games here and there.
2016 he averaged 47 with lows of 8, 19, 23, 26.. six scores in the 30s and six in the 40s.
2017 he averaged 50 with lows of 12, 20, 20, 28.. four scores in the 30s and eight in the 40s.
2018 he's now priced at his current average of just under 34. Lows of 13, 17, 20 and 33 so far.
I feel he's low-risk in the sense that if he's regressed to a low 30's winger, you get exactly what you've paid for, but knowing what he's capable of and that his current scores aren't that out of line with previous years, he has a lot of potential upside.
Might be hard to average 47-50 for the entire season (in for some cracking scores if he does), but if he can average that from this point on, he'll have been a great buy at 507k, around 200k+ underpriced.
Sometimes you just gotta gamble