NRL Fantasy 2018 Thread Part 37

WT Winfield wrote:

I don't think he's lost his gun status after 8 rounds. He averaged 47 and 50 past two seasons and has a history of some dud games here and there.

2016 he averaged 47 with lows of 8, 19, 23, 26.. six scores in the 30s and six in the 40s.

2017 he averaged 50 with lows of 12, 20, 20, 28.. four scores in the 30s and eight in the 40s.

2018 he's now priced at his current average of just under 34. Lows of 13, 17, 20 and 33 so far.

I feel he's low-risk in the sense that if he's regressed to a low 30's winger, you get exactly what you've paid for, but knowing what he's capable of and that his current scores aren't that out of line with previous years, he has a lot of potential upside.

Might be hard to average 47-50 for the entire season (in for some cracking scores if he does), but if he can average that from this point on, he'll have been a great buy at 507k, around 200k+ underpriced.

Sometimes you just gotta gamble

Mearcats wrote:@wolfking, curious as to how you came up with two 52, 14, 36, 41, 39, 22, 77, 66. I personally would say anything under 40 for a half is shit. That means he has 4 and one very borderline. Meaning 5 outta 8 starts.

wolfking wrote:

I guess Im just looking at all possible options, and maybe I'm just being lenient due to the position being so shit this year.

What intrigues me about Norman is the way he has played the last two weeks reminds me of how he played at the start of last year. He was the form half of the comp. He then got injured and then Moses came along. Perhaps they are both finding their balance with each other but just how he is playing just seems a lot more positive.

Those shit scores were in a terrible losing side too don't forget.

Random wrote:Why is JMK being dropped or got a source?

Because I am fucked so badly especially more so if Brown isn't there.

zuppy wrote:I'm thinking Thompson out via CWalker for Watson. Assumption is that Watson is a 40 pt half, will get to 600k and be a better player in the 13 whilst making money. How sound is that 40 pt assumption?

zuppy wrote:I'm thinking Thompson out via CWalker for Watson. Assumption is that Watson is a 40 pt half, will get to 600k and be a better player in the 13 whilst making money. How sound is that 40 pt assumption?

Rippin and Tearin wrote:Hey guys, what are the chances GI plays Origin? Is he a lock?

WT Winfield wrote:

Thompson's a 40 point WFB currently, so not really a better player in the 13 if going by the assumption that Watson averages 40. Another 77k for Thompson to make if he maintains that average and also plays Rd 13.

Freeing up the 128k could be useful, but hard to say if Watson really can hit that 40 average.

90 mins for 25
74 mins for 31 with a try
18 mins for 5
80 mins for 54 with a try

Didn't pick up any significant kick metres with Pearce's injury and is copping a few negatives. 4 MTs a game even with the 18 min game. A penalty and an error per game for -12 on average.

Regulator wrote:

100% GI plays if he is healthy.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Thanks mate!

DO you have thoughts on the Origin prospects of:

TTrbo
Cook
JDB
Vaughan
Arrow

I'm not really up with the play on all this. I appreciate some will be unknowns but some may well be locks (like GI) so good to know for me if they are.

Cheers