NRL Fantasy 2018 Thread Part 37

Would really appreciate someone casting an eye over this logic for me.

Need to sell Kennar ($382):
Have $75k itb, and other cows Douehi, Nicholls if i need more fundage.

Want to move Isaako out of CTR to EMG, so buying another centre keeps team balanced.

Ramien is BE 7 vs AVG 36, so positive index 29. Isaako AVG 30, so essentially buying a 6pt increase.
Ramien $457k cost vs Isaako $415 'cost', difference of $42k, meaning each of those 6 pts costs $7000.
Same maths for Marsters came out at $17666 per pt.

Is this a suitable way to evaluate potential buy ins?

KiwiOilBoiler wrote:Would really appreciate someone casting an eye over this logic for me.

Need to sell Kennar ($382):
Have $75k itb, and other cows Douehi, Nicholls if i need more fundage.

Want to move Isaako out of CTR to EMG, so buying another centre keeps team balanced.

Ramien is BE 7 vs AVG 36, so positive index 29. Isaako AVG 30, so essentially buying a 6pt increase.
Ramien $457k cost vs Isaako $415 'cost', difference of $42k, meaning each of those 6 pts costs $7000.
Same maths for Marsters came out at $17666 per pt.

Is this a suitable way to evaluate potential buy ins?

Ive never thought about it like that but probably relative to BE vs expected total value when topped out (which is a common consideration)

For a keeper i guess you want the season average to be a Minimum of X. Then work out if the extra potential points by one keeper is worth the extra youd have to pay for them vs $$ that could be used to strengthen other spots.

As long as your calculations align with the above objective then they make sense.

SI wrote:

Heard anything on Malakai?  Can't find injury news but Cleary seems to have a lot of faith in him so far.

He's not injured, trained all last week and warmed up as 18th man for the eels game. Bout as much as I know on mwz atm

Gutted by this Brown news. Could handle holding him for a week and play JMK + Su'a, but another 3 weeks is going to kill me. My H2H finals start next week and only lasts 2 weeks, so I can't afford to hold Brown.

Gonna fuck me even worse for the Rd 13 bye, but think I'll trade Brown to Jake Trb. Not sure how much attention I'll be paying to overall soon. Ranked 5300th anyway.

Dufty to Rapana
Brown to Jake Trb

(C)am
Fifita, Arrow
Jake, Murray, RFM
DCE, Munster
Hiku, Isaako
Ponga, Rapana, Thompson

Cook, Kikau, JFH, Su'a or JMK

Croker, Gosie, Gelling.

Hopefully can cashout Gosie next week and upgrade Isaako to JCroker or JRob.

Looking for min price cashout and first name I see, James Segeyaro.

Amazing if Brailey ever goes down, in a year where unlimited hookers are allowed.

MS loves unlimited hookers on his birthday. Have a good one pal

Uate will be min price soon too, currently 219k after scoring 3 last week

He was one of my best early cash cows last year. Started around 172k and ended up well over 300k when I cashed out.

Has job security at least..

Morning all, wondering who should go, to allow Cogger a shot. Although not deadset on it because of Lamb etc

Cook
Kikau Arrow
Jurbo RFM Murray
CWalker Hampton
Mitchell Fusitua
Ponga Teddy JAC

Welch TPJ JFH Sorenson

Havili katoa Camp-Graham Doohey

Brought in JAC this week for poor ole Dedwards, have 23 (1) trades and 262k itb.
Really sure Doohey comes into the mix at some point this year, but he may be the best to go to Cogger. Prepared to see how Hampton goes until/if he continues to score well and not lose all the cash he gained. Love playing Fusitua although only averaging 30 overall, content to patch up elsewhere over fiddling with trades in the centres - biggest lesson learnt from the past.
Couple of my middies could become anyone with the 262k, but most a little early to bail, seemingly.

Any insight or glaring omissions ??

WT Winfield wrote:Gutted by this Brown news. Could handle holding him for a week and play JMK + Su'a, but another 3 weeks is going to kill me. My H2H finals start next week and only lasts 2 weeks, so I can't afford to hold Brown.

Gonna fuck me even worse for the Rd 13 bye, but think I'll trade Brown to Jake Trb. Not sure how much attention I'll be paying to overall soon. Ranked 5300th anyway.

Dufty to Rapana
Brown to Jake Trb

(C)am
Fifita, Arrow
Jake, Murray, RFM
DCE, Munster
Hiku, Isaako
Ponga, Rapana, Thompson

Cook, Kikau, JFH, Su'a or JMK

Croker, Gosie, Gelling.

Hopefully can cashout Gosie next week and upgrade Isaako to JCroker or JRob.

Why trbo over taumo?

Adrianoooo wrote:How many trades does everyone have left? Curious how everyone is going

The answer to this question is only interesting if people post their ranks and team value too. IMO number of trades left (at this stage) should generally be correlated with rank and negatively correlated with team value.

To get a sense of how people are going I think you need to ask for all three.

20, 175, ~13.3m (including CIB)

Should I be so keen on Gos > Cogger?

23, 68, ~13.5 including CIB.

Seems pretty healthy

Am I crazy for looking at holding Brown and Dugan this week. If I were to trade them. Then the big difference is I get Fifita in this week. (I get Latrell into my team this week regardless.)

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Should I be so keen on Gos > Cogger?

I would love to be making this trade.

Random wrote:

I would love to be making this trade.

Will hold Dugey until he returns or a no brainer replacement pops up

KiwiOilBoiler wrote:Would really appreciate someone casting an eye over this logic for me.

Need to sell Kennar ($382):
Have $75k itb, and other cows Douehi, Nicholls if i need more fundage.

Want to move Isaako out of CTR to EMG, so buying another centre keeps team balanced.

Ramien is BE 7 vs AVG 36, so positive index 29. Isaako AVG 30, so essentially buying a 6pt increase.
Ramien $457k cost vs Isaako $415 'cost', difference of $42k, meaning each of those 6 pts costs $7000.
Same maths for Marsters came out at $17666 per pt.

Is this a suitable way to evaluate potential buy ins?

Yeah that math works, but its basically just another way to get to what people generally (implicitly) do which is to work out what players are valued at (their ave) vs what they are priced at (price/MN) and then compare across players.

Isaako: priced at 415k/15k = 27.7 but valued at 30 => +2.3 (i.e. you are getting a bonus 2.3 points for your money)
Ramien: priced at 457k/15k = 30.5 but valued at 36 => +5.5
Marsters: priced at 574k/15k = 38.3 but valued at 39.3 => +1

Therefore in order of the above value alone Ramien > Isaako > Marsters (same conclusion you have come to above)

However the key to all this is the above doesn't take into account keeper vs non-keeper and the fact that C is the toughest spot to find high scoring players. If Masters is a keeper, and at this stage ranked 3rd of all Cs you could make a strong case that he is, then paying up for him to save a trade and to lock in a keepers score at C may be worth it. Conversely it may also be a huge risk to spend up at a position which is notoriously tough to pick, particularly at this stage of the season. I'd argue you decision depends on all of the above in addition to how the rest of your team is tracking: have you generated enough money, have you got major problems to deal with elsewhere, is there more value to be had elsewhere, how many trades do you have left etc.

TLDR - yup the math makes sense

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:23, 68, ~13.5 including CIB.

Seems pretty healthy

Very - I'd be really interested to see how people above you are tracking - so far you are the benchmark

By the way, you guys think this comp is poorly run. Im currently playing in a free comp (with prizes) for Super Rugby. Here's a run down of the major errors they made this season:

1) Rules stated 3 trades per round but people were able to make unlimited trades after round 1
2) I have owned a player who changed clubs during the off season, during the season they scored that player properly, then 3 weeks ago his profile changed so that he was back playing with his old club and all his stats were set to zero - my round totals fell accordingly.
3) since daylight savings lockout for the round is now 1 hour after when the first game starts (and still is).

Complete muppets I'm winning though

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Very - I'd be really interested to see how people above you are tracking - so far you are the benchmark

Never been called that before. I'm sure there are guys better than that.
Decisions made now are going to be huge, with all these injuries.

GreenMachine wrote:Looking for min price cashout and first name I see, James Segeyaro.

Amazing if Brailey ever goes down, in a year where unlimited hookers are allowed.

MS loves unlimited hookers on his birthday. Have a good one pal

Cheers mate.

Segeyaro is certainly an option if Brailey faces any time on the sidelines. Currently have 4 hooker in the squad and considering grabbing Jake Friend aswell Can't say no to a good hooker

Rippin and Tearin wrote:By the way, you guys think this comp is poorly run. Im currently playing in a free comp (with prizes) for Super Rugby. Here's a run down of the major errors they made this season:

1) Rules stated 3 trades per round but people were able to make unlimited trades after round 1
2) I have owned a player who changed clubs during the off season, during the season they scored that player properly, then 3 weeks ago his profile changed so that he was back playing with his old club and all his stats were set to zero - my round totals fell accordingly.
3) since daylight savings lockout for the round is now 1 hour after when the first game starts (and still is).

Complete muppets I'm winning though

Haha that daylight savings blunder is gold!