2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 40

Pookus McFly wrote:

Ooo you are the first person i've seen to be preferencing Surgess over Lolo. I too am thinking of doing likewise, though I think our opinions are unpopular.
Can anyone confirm that Surgess BE is 41, Lolo 51?

It's not like Sam is coming back from injury and will limit his gametime or effort- he is the kind of player who pents up the 2 games he sat out and unleashes all three games in one shift when he hits the field
His 67 against the Raiders was in 61 minutes and he only came off because the game was won, I expect him to play for 70-80 with a close one.
I think he is the guy I bring in this week, just in case he bangs out a 70 and raises his price 40k.

...Mind you, this is all just gut feeling. Not like Taumalolo can't find 70 easily, and up against a struggling Tigers rather than the Dragons.

I am completely going off gut feel on this one. Just think he is the better choice long term over Taupau and I should be fine funds wise to grab Lolo next week.

Pretty PODish at the top as well

Pookus McFly wrote:I need to bring in a keeper WFB to replace Mbye. At the moment I am toying with just bringing in Brimson as a one week placeholder in order to give me another round to assess candidates, but I could jump the gun and bring in RTS instead. Would free up my 2 trades for next week, which would be ideal.

Thoughts on RTS? Any owners have tribulations they want to share?
I understand that only the overall average matters, but have you ever seen such consistently inconsistent scoring in your life?:

Averaged 63 rounds 1-3
Averaged 23 rounds 4-7
Averaged 56 rounds 8-9

That's 5 games averaging 60 with a run of 4 games in a row averaging 23 in between!
So hard to get a handle on. That's the only reason why I am considering a Brimson cashout to buy time. Even if he rises 40k it might be worth it for the peace of mind. If I brought him in and he scored 14 I would be devastated. Or is it more the case that the 14-90 range will continue and you just need to ride the rollercoaster?

RTS has only scored well in 1 game that SJ didn't play. I'm waiting until next week which is difficult because I want to flick Thompson. If RTS hits 50ish he'll go around $600k which is achievable

BUMP

How likely do we think it is that Cogger will get another go? Just realised that I can go Arrow to Martin and Cogger to Tolo with not a dollar to spare,pull the trigger?

Pookus McFly wrote:I need to bring in a keeper WFB to replace Mbye. At the moment I am toying with just bringing in Brimson as a one week placeholder in order to give me another round to assess candidates, but I could jump the gun and bring in RTS instead. Would free up my 2 trades for next week, which would be ideal.

Thoughts on RTS? Any owners have tribulations they want to share?
I understand that only the overall average matters, but have you ever seen such consistently inconsistent scoring in your life?:

Averaged 63 rounds 1-3
Averaged 23 rounds 4-7
Averaged 56 rounds 8-9

That's 5 games averaging 60 with a run of 4 games in a row averaging 23 in between!
So hard to get a handle on. That's the only reason why I am considering a Brimson cashout to buy time. Even if he rises 40k it might be worth it for the peace of mind. If I brought him in and he scored 14 I would be devastated. Or is it more the case that the 14-90 range will continue and you just need to ride the rollercoaster?

I think the reason why why people are struggling to find the 3rd WFB keeper is because it is slim pickings! Outside of Ponga and Teddy - here's the list I've been considering:

T Trbo - ave ~45 seems really out of form and likely to play Origin - he';s the obvious choice if he can get back to form, but playing for Manly and injury may prevent that. Seems to be a wait and see, perhaps a round 18 pick up.
C Walker - ave ~45 reliant on big plays (has scored 7 tries in 9 matches, can he keep that up?) but is DPP and plays 13.
RTS - ave ~44 hard to get a read on and hypothesis his scoring is SJ dependent (numbers so far suggest that may be the case) alternatively perhaps his current form is a good indication of where he's at, in which case he could aver ~50+
JAC - ave ~42 is he this years Rapana? big risk IMO but could be huge reward
Rapana - ~ave 35 but is he bouncing back? big value if he is
Dufty - ave ~35 started the season strong but looks to have fallen off the pace.

Have I missed anyone relevant?

Then there are a bunch of guys averaging between 30-40 but none stand out to me.

My take, if you are looking for someone right now it would be between RTS and Walker and I'd lean to RTS due to Walker being so reliant on the big play.

danseels1985 wrote:BUMP

How likely do we think it is that Cogger will get another go? Just realised that I can go Arrow to Martin and Cogger to Tolo with not a dollar to spare,pull the trigger?

< 20%

Thompson > Lamb
Havili/Maloney > Surgess

Or

Thompson > Brimson
Havili/Maloney > Tolo/Taupau/Surgess

Thoughts guys?

Rippin and Tearin wrote:


Have I missed anyone relevant?

Two others who are probably less relevant that I am watching closely this week anyway:

JMK- plenty of owners disappointed with his 29 last week, but he played 65 mins, had -6 in negatives and 0 attacking stats. I still think he has the potential to kick on from here. More time and more confidence in the role could see him become a 45+ player. Cannot beat bankable tackles in the WFB position. Definitely a wait and see though (or a hold if you already own him), maybe even for a week or two. Could be a good round 14 pickup if he works out.

Coote- Averaging 30 before his round 9 game, but suddenly found 350 kick metres to make 49 fantasy points. It was pretty obvious that he was doing all the long kicking in play over JT/Morgan as part of the gameplan, and if this continues he will be a cut-price keeper. Downside is that these kick metres could revert to JT at any point in the future and he would suddenly become a sell, so a risky option.

Blain wrote:Murray to Arey, or DCE? Both round 13 players, ARey has low a BE, Bunnies are finding form where as Manly are floundering. Gives me an extra $100k in the pocket as well as a bit of a POD. But, injury..

That $100k would go towards upgrading Maloney or Rein to a $700k gun, rather than a sub $650 player.

And what the hell is happening with Arrow? Do we have a time frame?? If it's 2 weeks I'm going Fifi.

I would take the risk on ARey, for everything you have mentioned, particularly the coin.

I have to play NAS this week I hope he can jag a try or something

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Thompson > Lamb
Havili/Maloney > Surgess

Or

Thompson > Brimson
Havili/Maloney > Tolo/Taupau/Surgess

Thoughts guys?

Thompson > Brimson
Maloney > Surgess
148k ITB

Leave Havili another week, his BE is low and can easily put another 50k on this week. Maloney won't make much more cash now.
Already mentioned I like Surgess over Lolo, but just a gut call. Not getting Taupau will really hurt if he keeps scoring like he has, but still risky if he goes back to 40s whilst priced at 55.
Brimson over Lamb because it saves over 100k, and because of their breakevens. Lamb's price wont raise much this week: breakeven of 32 and used to average about 40 when he was a dominant half last year. Lamb has better job security, but if Brimson does well enough you could find yourself scrambling to get him in for 50k more next week anyway. He has huge wraps on him and could well stick around (his competition in Elgey and Cartwright is not stiff afterall). I rarely bring a player without taking a look first, but I did for Martin last week because of his WC performances, and I will for Brimson on reputation alone. Plus his DPP is handy as fuck.

Arrow to Tolo
Cogger to Martin
Good trades?

White Lightning wrote:So Will Smith (481k hlf/wfb) will be at hooker for the Eels with no bench hooker but King is in the reserves. This is a bit of a left field selection but it does intrigue me.

I really like him as a player, but at Fullback in real terms. Do you want him for quick points as he won't be making much cash with a 60 BE and 4 weeks max in the possy.

Im thinking I might just hold Thompson. Dont know why but maybe im clutching at a big round 13. Might stick with a Soro downgrade, unless I decide on Capewell or Fonua for Thompson, might just hold.

danseels1985 wrote:Arrow to Tolo
Cogger to Martin
Good trades?

Cogger to Martin definitely.
Arrow to Tolo good if you arn't sold on holding him. Personally I will, because I don't see any FRF combo coming close to Fifita + Arrow (if fit)

Is there anymore news on Arrow that I have missed? Any idea on his injury and time out?

bluetige wrote:Re Brimson and his stats from https://www.qrl.com.au/players/intrust-super-cup/tweed-heads-seagulls/alexander-brimson/
he played 4 games at 5/8 for 4 losses (as already mentioned) but his average at this position is only approximately 30.

EDIT. tries not included

Would expect that to be even less in First Grade AND for the Titans. I assume people are just grabbing him as a bottom dollar cash out with no expectation of ever playing him in their 17 bar a bye round.

Have Rein owners got a backup option if Peats is a surprise inclusion this week?
I am thinking I might bench him for Havili if out, but that would mean I need to play Murray off the bench. Would really love for him to get 80 mins and squeeze one more game out so I can bench Murray instead thoug. Either way it looks like Peats will be back next week at the latest and get becomes a sell.

lukeaye wrote:Is there anymore news on Arrow that I have missed? Any idea on his injury and time out?

1-3 weeks (if 3 weeks will actually be 4 with the bye)
I think him resting this week works in his favor. Will let him come back bigger and stronger.
tbh, he has been playing so well as a FRF option this year I would hold him even if it was 4 weeks.
But I suspect he will be back next week (no source, just rampant speculation).
Hope everyone trades him out though, keeping an eye on his ownership- already dropped from 25.7% to 24.9% since TLT

Pookus McFly wrote:Have Rein owners got a backup option if Peats is a surprise inclusion this week?
I am thinking I might bench him for Havili if out, but that would mean I need to play Murray off the bench. Would really love for him to get 80 mins and squeeze one more game out so I can bench Murray instead thoug. Either way it looks like Peats will be back next week at the latest and get becomes a sell.

Not saying this will happen but I think if Peats were to come back this week I’d be off the bench and probably to lock with Wallace and James playing Big minutes up the front. I think we can squeeze one more week out of Rein

Welshy wrote:
Offf JFH is close to a keeper in the FRF, playing his big minutes at lock his big negatives are a pain though but its all down to the way he plays the game

StuDogg101 wrote:

I'm keen on this trade too. Either Rein or JFH to Lolo and play Hiku and Thompson another week. Not keen on playing Toomaga or Brimson straight off the bat

pm888 wrote:
with merrin out, the panthers bench will be non-recognisable apart from katoa (Ellis, Luai + one of Lui-toso/Eisenhuth).

i can see JFH continuing to play the big minutes. maybe 70-80 for the next month or so which is good for points

edit: got it wrong with merrin being out, he may still play this weekend

Aside from playing 80 or 60 his end product isnt enough and hes almost peaked cash wise, uograding to Lolo is exactly that - an upgrade. Id rather keep Kikau and watch TPJ, see how he unfolds in his role. Theres a few others that can fill the FRF, if there was no one id keep JFH.