2018 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 48

Welshy wrote:

This.

His 2 absolute monster scores have inflated his average. 75% of his scores have been below his current average (56.1) he is currently priced for an average of 62.6

Needs another monster score to stop his avg and price from beginning to start tumbling, for non owners his price is annoyingly at its peak before his most useful round

Yeah, he only needs one dud game and his price will go downhill.

I still think Taupau is a keeper though so while yes he is at premium price, you are getting one of the best options for this bye round plus a season keeper.

wolfking wrote:I still think Taupau is a keeper though so while yes he is at premium price, you are getting one of the best options for this bye round plus a season keeper.

100% a keeper mate, no disputing that.

I’m probably going to gamble on Surgess for 220k less and pray his average starts climbing whilst Kapows begins to eke downwards

0rangejuiced wrote:Getting in Taupau at his current price scares me

Great avatar mate. Liverpool_Bulldog & myself are Liverpool fanatics so it's always excellent having another Liverpool brother on the forum.
I have the same thoughts as you re Taupau because he's overpriced based on past years performances. True he is getting big minutes because of injuries & with Jurbo involved in origin I don't see that changing but Sipley has played 0 minutes the last 2 weeks on the bench the poor fella & maybe he impacts Taupau's minutes when Barrett actually decides to give him some minutes.

Chewie wrote:I'm looking at cashing out Thompson for a Round 17 one-hit-wonder next week, any suggestions?

maybe jarome luai (panthers half) could go alright replacing cleary/maloney/peach. otherwise you could take a punt on who plays 80 mins in that dragons pack, i think it might be leilua with latimore at lock

Taupau is a keeper, but I'll wait a few rounds for his price to drop before picking him up. At the moment his round 8 and 9 scores of 104 & 80 are inflating his price.
I don't have as much cash ITB as others around here so for me it's unwise to pick him up

my tv broke wrote:Taupau plays out one of two ways:
- he pumps out an 85+ in the next month or so, and is therefore worth the $$.
- he doesn't pump out a big score, and the cheaper options end up being more worthwhile.

Your post raises an interesting point, or hypothesis to test at least. Is the variance of Taupaus scoring actually greater than other players? and therefore is the successful outcome of bringing him in for a month dependent on him hitting a big score? Or do we just think it is given his fantasy profile and the 1/2 big scores we know he has got and other options have similar variation in their scores?

I haven't got the data to do this quickly but did have a quick look at Taupau's summary stats compared to a couple of the others mentioned:

Taupau:
Average 56.1
Min 39
Max 104
SD 19.0

Koroisau
Average 48.1
Min 23
Max 82
SD 19.5

Surgess
Average 43.6
Min 10
Max 67
SD 17.5

No concrete conclusions by any means, but it does make me skeptical of whether your above breakdown in potential scenarios is accurate.

My hunch is that Taupau's scoring is not significantly more variable than many other options. Therefore I'd be basing my decisions on overall averages rather than the likely hood of him hitting another big one to justify bringing him in.

Also, Im still confused why people keep talking about Taupau in terms of his output over a month. Surely when considering Taupau it is with the season in mind? or am I missing something?

I just read a comment on Reddit re Surgess which may be true or not because I don't know his exact status with the judiciary. He said:
"Surgess is 1 high tackle away from a 4 game suspension."

Loomer wrote:

It was the first trade I did before reversing 

My sell list in order of definite outs. Deciding whether 2 3 or 4 trades

RFM
Hiku
Tohu
Latrell

Wait, Tohu's on your trade-out list?

pm888 wrote:
maybe jarome luai (panthers half) could go alright replacing cleary/maloney/peach. otherwise you could take a punt on who plays 80 mins in that dragons pack, i think it might be leilua with latimore at lock

Thanks mate, the panther half sounds like a good option.
Would they play with Tyrone May & Jarome Luai in the halves?

White Lightning wrote:I just read a comment on Reddit re Surgess which may be true or not because I don't know his exact status with the judiciary. He said:
"Surgess is 1 high tackle away from a 4 game suspension."

Im passing on surgess this season. He peaked in 2014

If I was to say no to Taupau and instead go for guys that have some value I'd look at

RFM/Kikau > Surgess
JFH > Guerra
Havili > Friend
Hiku > MCK

Leaving me 13 for this week.

Friend
Fifita, Surgess
Taumalolo, Matterson, Guerra, (Murray)
DCE, Watson
MCK, Fonua
Ponga, Teddy

Could always go one less player and keep RFM and Kikau for Rd17

Thoughts?

Honey Badger wrote:

Im passing on surgess this season. He peaked in 2014

I gave you a thumbs up for that HB & I agree.

As Wednesdays are a bit slow fantasy wise, i've taken time to look back at the glory days.  This time last year I was ranked 1st



Hopefully the boys up the top this year can go on with the job.  I stayed on top for another round but eventually limped home to finish 13th.

Thoughts on the centre options? Have Mitchell and Hiku atm. Plan is to keep Hiku in EMG for cover for the back end of the season. I would grab Marsters but at his current price, unless Murray hits his high BE I will just miss being able to grab Cleary next week. Aitken doesn't play 13, Ramien is inflated by tries, Dugan is brittle, and Fonua/MCK aren't very trustable for a planned keeper.

Only have 8 playing this week, a centre will get me to 9 Cant jump on the Taupau train at this price, he will go back to his old self.

I think the key with Taupau is his minutes. With Manlys injuries he is now averaging 60 mins a game, and while I'm well aware that sometimes more minutes don't automatically mean more points, more time on the field gives him more opportunity for that one big 20pt run that he needs to go from a 50 to a 70.

Up to round 7, he was averaging 46.8 in 46.7 mins.

In 5 games since then, it is 69 average in 60 mins.

If you ignore the 104 game, it is still 60 in 59.75 mins.

So its a question of whether he can maintain the last line. I reckon he can.

my tv broke wrote:I think the key with Taupau is his minutes. With Manlys injuries he is now averaging 60 mins a game, and while I'm well aware that sometimes more minutes don't automatically mean more points, more time on the field gives him more opportunity for that one big 20pt run that he needs to go from a 50 to a 70.

Up to round 7, he was averaging 46.8  in 46.7 mins.

In 5 games since then, it is 69 average in 60 mins.

If you ignore the 104 game, it is still 60 in 59.75 mins.

So its a question of whether he can maintain the last line. I reckon he can.

I think he can too.

rhinoceroo wrote:

Wait, Tohu's on your trade-out list?

Yes. If he plays Denver test Kearney said those players would struggle to back up for 16 which would be 2 games missed in next 4

Loomer wrote:

It was the first trade I did before reversing 

My sell list in order of definite outs. Deciding whether 2 3 or 4 trades

RFM
Hiku
Tohu
Latrell

Most are thinking of trading in Tohu soon

Reklaw wrote:Thoughts on the centre options? Have Mitchell and Hiku atm. Plan is to keep Hiku in EMG for cover for the back end of the season. I would grab Marsters but at his current price, unless Murray hits his high BE I will just miss being able to grab Cleary next week. Aitken doesn't play 13, Ramien is inflated by tries, Dugan is brittle, and Fonua/MCK aren't very trustable for a planned keeper.

Only have 8 playing this week, a centre will get me to 9 Cant jump on the Taupau train at this price, he will go back to his old self.

I have the same dilemma (though I need either a CTR or WFB). Struggling to decide on who to bring in this week. I have plenty of cash, but none of the options jump out at me:

Dugan: playing FB but having an off season, always an injury concern
Fergo: playing FB this week, though probably not quite a keeper
Marsters: seems ok, bit overpriced for me
MCK / Fonua: Question marks over job security, though MCK is tempting even if only for a few rounds
Nofo: Could be on the rebound, could continue stinking it up.

Leaning towards either Dugan (uhhh it felt dirty even typing that) or MCK....or maybe Fergo