2018 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 48

Don't have the trades to flick Cook, but can see the merit. I was thinking the same thing with Arrow a couple weeks ago, but changed my mind late. If I did it, I'd probably struggle to get him back in. Not much point on having too much $$ sitting in the bank..

Have 10 players this week, which I'm comfortable with. Not big on getting guys in just for byes, every team has a bye at the end of the day.

I'm going J Friend, if he averages 40 he's an easy upgrade with a Cogger cash out before round 17.

Flicking Hiku, would you guys get in Dugan, or Aitken? Dugan is a bit of a POD with 4% ownership, and can only see him getting better this season, where as Aitken has scored a lot of tries which have ramped up his scores.

Would give me 3 DPP's in Mitchell, Dugan and Fonua which is handy.

Welshy wrote:
If you dump him now and he rests for R14 you get someone in for 3 extra scores where Cook gets nothing
If you wait a week and he backs up only missing 1 and pretty much pointless doing it

To make the most of out the Cook trade out I think you need to let him go now or just keep him

Hey mate, Im a bit late on this.

I personally see it as too great a risk to make the call now on the chance he gets rested for 14. Also, I'm not sure what you mean by getting an extra 3 scores? that only works if you double trade cause no matter who you bring in for Cook this week, you'd only get 2 extra scores (1 bye score and 1 rested game score).

Finally, I've run the numbers on this, sorry don't have time to post, but the option that stands out to me is the one where you wait till 14 to see if Cook gets rested, and if he does you trade him to a keeper that plays 17 and will average ~60.

If you go that option it costs you one trade (cause you don't trade out who ever you bring in - lets say its McInnes), you take away the risk of whether or not Cook gets rested in 14, you gain an extra ~90 points, and potentially more if Cook gets injured during Origin/rested in 18.

I've run the numbers under several different scenarios and Im yet to see anything that is worth doing this round.

White Lightning wrote:This discussion re selling Cook is the same one we use to have with Smith. Some people go for the punt & some don't.

Yup, except this year, with a different team structure you have more flexibility with your trade options - not restricted to subbing Cook for another hooker (assuming you have >= two in your squad already).

There's definitely merit in the option if you have trades to burn, in fact its probably one of the best options if you have the trades.

I'd be seriously looking at Cook to round 13 playing gun (Taupau, Fifita, Tolo....), and with the excess cash, then upgrading one of your round 13 playing mid-rangers to a round 17 playing gun in round 14 (McInnes, Cam, Arrow), and then bringing back in cook from 18 onwards.

You use 3 or 4 trades but in return get two keepers and anywhere between 100 to 200 points depending on whether or not Cook gets rested.

Not an option for me though as I don't have the trades to muck around with trading Cook in and Out.

I will seriously consider Cook to McInnes should Cook get rested for 14 though.

Getting in Taupau at his current price scares me

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Hey mate, Im a bit late on this.

I personally see it as too great a risk to make the call now on the chance he gets rested for 14. Also, I'm not sure what you mean by getting an extra 3 scores? that only works if you double trade cause no matter who you bring in for Cook this week, you'd only get 2 extra scores (1 bye score and 1 rested game score).

Finally, I've run the numbers on this, sorry don't have time to post, but the option that stands out to me is the one where you wait till 14 to see if Cook gets rested, and if he does you trade him to a keeper that plays 17 and will average ~60.

If you go that option it costs you one trade (cause you don't trade out who ever you bring in - lets say its McInnes), you take away the risk of whether or not Cook gets rested in 14, you gain an extra ~90 points, and potentially more if Cook gets injured during Origin/rested in 18.

I've run the numbers under several different scenarios and Im yet to see anything that is worth doing this round.

Yep this is what i was trying to say when i said im not trading cook this round but if he does get rested i might consider trading to McInnes.

manlybeaver wrote:Dugan or gal ?

I decided trading jturbo out instead of cook more chance of loosing money when his big score falls off with his last 2 game average being 42

Dugan is a keeper ctr, gal these days is just a mid range forward not playing 80 mins with a high chance of getting injured! Oh you can throw Dugan in the high chance of getting injured category too

Honey Badger wrote:

Yep this is what i was trying to say when i said I'm not trading cook this round but if he does get rested i might consider trading to McInnes.

Yup, in terms of bang for your buck/trade. That is the one that makes the most sense. Mitigates risk of him backing up too!!

On a slightly different note, the Smith debate last year was a bit of a different one due to the byes being structured differently. This years debate rests completely on Cook being rested post Origin. Last year the with Smith, there was rationale for trading him out regardless of him being rested or not.

Is Taupau at his price really a better option than say Koro/Guerra/Surgess/Eisenhuth

These guys are 200k cheaper and could match Taupaus scores over the coming month or at least go close enough.

Cook is too fit and fresh in the game to consider being rested for round 14, unless he's injured. He will 100% want to play, and Siebold being a rookie coach is ~probably unlikely~ to make him sit it out. If he has a bad game for NSW or NSW lose, then he'll want to get back out on the park and make up for it, or if they win, he'll be riding high and super keen to go again.

He might not play the 80 though..

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Is Taupau at his price really a better option than say Koro/Guerra/Surgess/Eisenhuth

These guys are 200k cheaper and could match Taupaus scores over the coming month or at least go close enough.

Perhaps but what chance do you give them of matching his scores? I'd say its pretty small.

We have 12 rounds of data to work with now and everything points to Taupau comfortably outscoring those guys.

Taupau average 56
Koro 48
Guerra 49
Surgess 44
Eisenhuth 45

Beyond that is the point of just looking at the next month because you will look to upgrade? If so you need to take into account that Taupau is a keeper and the others are probably not. So thats an extra trade and probably ~30-50 points you'd be sacrificing in order to save the $200k.

So with that in mind it most probably depends on what you will use that $200k for and how many trades you have to burn.

At this stage in the game IMO the way to play it is to make sure you have the round 13 playing keepers in before the start of this round: Fifita, Taupau, Matterson, Ponga, DCE (maybe), Tolo (maybe) and then look at getting a combination of the mid ranges/potential guns to bulk up your round 13 totals. In terms of the later I'd be favouring guys that are potential keepers and/or the guys who will make money over plain old mid-ranger points.

Wednesdays suck

Revraiser wrote:Madness to consider Latrell on the chopping block now ? Bye to come.

It was the first trade I did before reversing 

My sell list in order of definite outs. Deciding whether 2 3 or 4 trades

RFM
Hiku
Tohu
Latrell

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Hey mate, Im a bit late on this.

I personally see it as too great a risk to make the call now on the chance he gets rested for 14. Also, I'm not sure what you mean by getting an extra 3 scores? that only works if you double trade cause no matter who you bring in for Cook this week, you'd only get 2 extra scores (1 bye score and 1 rested game score).

Finally, I've run the numbers on this, sorry don't have time to post, but the option that stands out to me is the one where you wait till 14 to see if Cook gets rested, and if he does you trade him to a keeper that plays 17 and will average ~60.

If you go that option it costs you one trade (cause you don't trade out who ever you bring in - lets say its McInnes), you take away the risk of whether or not Cook gets rested in 14, you gain an extra ~90 points, and potentially more if Cook gets injured during Origin/rested in 18.

I've run the numbers under several different scenarios and Im yet to see anything that is worth doing this round.

under current averages Taupau nets an extra 97 points if Cook gets a rest R14, DCE 93 Matterson 87 Surgess 69. The risk doing it now is compete guesswork on whether he gets a rest R14, if Rabbits lose I reckon he plays, if they beat the sharkies I reckon he gets a rest

Welshy wrote:
under current averages Taupau nets an extra 97 points if Cook gets a rest R14, DCE 93 Matterson 87 Surgess 69

Yup which is exactly my point.

You get the extra 69-97 points via those options but it all rests on the unknown factor of whether or not Vook gets rested

OR

you wait and see for sure and if he does get rested you bring in McInnes (or someone equivalent) and lock in 90 points with no risk.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Perhaps but what chance do you give them of matching his scores? I'd say its pretty small.

We have 12 rounds of data to work with now and everything points to Taupau comfortably outscoring those guys.

Taupau average 56
Koro 48
Guerra 49
Surgess 44
Eisenhuth 45

Beyond that is the point of just looking at the next month because you will look to upgrade? If so you need to take into account that Taupau is a keeper and the others are probably not. So thats an extra trade and probably ~30-50 points you'd be sacrificing in order to save the $200k.

So with that in mind it most probably depends on what you will use that $200k for and how many trades you have to burn.

At this stage in the game IMO the way to play it is to make sure you have the round 13 playing keepers in before the start of this round: Fifita, Taupau, Matterson, Ponga, DCE (maybe), Tolo (maybe) and then look at getting a combination of the mid ranges/potential guns to bulk up your round 13 totals. In terms of the later I'd be favouring guys that are potential keepers  and/or the guys who will make money over plain old mid-ranger points.

That was my original plan this week was to bring him in and a few guys in that possible keeper/cash maker bracket. Atm those trades are as follows

RFM/Kikau > Taupau (Kikaus DPP could be very useful and should be starting soon)
JFH > WGraham
Havili > TMM
Hiku > MCK

Leaves 275k.

Taupau plays out one of two ways:
- he pumps out an 85+ in the next month or so, and is therefore worth the $$.
- he doesn't pump out a big score, and the cheaper options end up being more worthwhile.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Yup which is exactly my point.

You get the extra 69-97 points via those options but it all rests on the unknown factor of whether or not Vook gets rested

OR

you wait and see for sure and if he does get rested you bring in McInnes (or someone equivalent) and lock in 90 points with no risk.

Yes mate noted all that in previous replies, considering the risk this round for a R13 season keeper and then getting McInnes for Barnett R14 as well as Tohu for Murray

If I chicken out I’ll be doing the Cook - McInnes trade

I'm looking at cashing out Thompson for a Round 17 one-hit-wonder next week, any suggestions?

my tv broke wrote:Taupau plays out one of two ways:
- he pumps out an 85+ in the next month or so, and is therefore worth the $$.
- he doesn't pump out a big score, and the cheaper options end up being more worthwhile.

This.

His 2 absolute monster scores have inflated his average. 75% of his scores have been below his current average (56.1) he is currently priced for an average of 62.6

Needs another monster score to stop his avg and price from beginning to start tumbling, for non owners his price is annoyingly at its peak before his most useful round

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:

That was my original plan this week was to bring him in and a few guys in that possible keeper/cash maker bracket. Atm those trades are as follows

RFM/Kikau > Taupau (Kikaus DPP could be very useful and should be starting soon)
JFH > WGraham
Havili > TMM
Hiku > MCK

Leaves 275k.

I like the Taupau trade, and the MCK one (although it's obviously a risk).

Haven't really looked at TMM and Grahams so can't comment on them.

In terms of dollars in the bank for this round, I think you need to make sure you have a good rationale for doing that (and there are of course many) cause $275k is the equivalent of sacrificing ~20 points in a round where points will be at a premium.

My strategy is to try and get as much money on the flied as possible this round.

So far have pencilled in:

JFH > Matterson
Kikau > Surgess
Lamb > Doueihi
Gos > MCK

leaves $43k