2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 55

Kaufusi started round 1. I had him.

Looking at cows who eventuated later in the season or players who were mid-priced and scored keeper scores only later in the season.

Trying to get a gauge of what could potentially happen this year.

We've had about what, a dozen season ending injuries to frontline players, should we be expecting half a dozen more at least?

pm888 wrote:20% luck?? I have it the other way around at 80% luck. You can have all the years of experience playing the game and skill in bye planning to make up ground throughout the weeks, but if you miss too many key cows/value mid rangers you have no chance of winning this thing!

I can count at least 6 value buys (200k+ profit) I missed like Maloney, Hiku, Tevaga, Gjennings, Hampton, Su'a. Thats 1.2 mil I couldve had instead of taking a punt on sorenson, capewell, lamb, ipapalii, gosiewski, rochow...

Furthermore was late on Matterson, coulda picked up Marsters or Ramien on the cheap. The list goes on and on.. but my point is it takes a bit of skill to pick up decent cows, but a lot more luck to pick the best ones and move them on.

Interesting fact, I've had none of these players

filthridden wrote:Kaufusi started round 1. I had him.

Looking at cows who eventuated later in the season or players who were mid-priced and scored keeper scores only later in the season.

Trying to get a gauge of what could potentially happen this year.

We've had about what, a dozen season ending injuries to frontline players, should we be expecting half a dozen more at least?

Ah, sorry, must not have read properly.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Haha no neither can I - at least Im proving myself wrong though

Bump:

Hey guys, collecting some data and hope to do a bit of analysis come the end of the year. I'm after your current rank and number of trades left prior to trading for round 16. Cheers to those who've already contributed.

Name - rank - trades remaining (prior to round 16)
Loomer: 540, 12
R&T: 28, 4
wolfking: 439, 13
filth: 2093, 11
Liverpool Bulldog: 117, 9
Awana Mafia: 161, 12
Rhino: 242, 6
WL: 40, 9
SI: 1048, 8
StormTrooper: 612, 11
Welshy: 547, 7
MTB: 86, 11
Chapper: 1542, 7
Chucky: 644, 12
Fraser: 52, 10
Fortitude: 62, 8
Chewie: 2633, 4
pm88: 60, 6
No Worries: 5909, 7
StuDogg: 475, 8
EGF: 1570, 10
Lukeaye: 554, 6
Hamstar: 962, 9
ClackBock: 1787, 10
Soylent: 213, 10
Blain: 701, 10
Stuffness: 247, 10
Frol: 1102, 11
Danseels: 249, 9
WT2K: 138, 10
Babou: 913, 11
Neillo: 316, 7
Chitmunkey: 253, 6
Pain: 526, 12
Trajan: 95, 9
Bullbender: 113, 7
Rev: 1878, 7
Sajjos: 157, 10
KiwiOil: 7358, 11
Code delta: 3587, 6
lucky8: 412, 8
Mighty fishes: 998, 7
Goodnight Kiwi: 104, 10
BL: 90, 12

I noticed a trend

Some of the most avid party GIF posters seems to be ranked 1000+ (No worries, code delta, and myself)
with Verbal being the exemption to the trend

OK so this the season-ending or close to injuries so far this season:

Edwards, Mansour, Wallace
Sam Hoare, Morgan, Moga, Tony Williams
Beau Scott, Sam McKendry
Jordan McLean, Curtis Sironen, Lachie Croker, Tanginoa

Plus Pearce, Pulu, Gillett who all will most 10+ rounds.

That's excluding players who are fringe first graders like Roache, Payne Haas etc.

More likely an injury will be "season ending" as that's fewer and fewer weeks in the season.

Fortitude wrote:

Yeah, I agree. Id say its 20% luck.

If it were 90% luck. The top 200 of the entire comp wouldn't have 20players from this community alone.

Being part of this community gives you a great platform to 'get lucky' off. I.e ensuring you don't miss the obvious picks. It seems that some people have just made some horrible picks (20/20 hindsight). Some weren't that obvious at the time. I mean Maloney, who the F would have thought he would be a decent pick up.

Getting into the top 100 takes skill, especially doing it consistently.

Actually winning it from that position is where luck comes in. Have to avoid those 1st minute injuries where players get a shit score and also drop heaps in cash making replacements hard to find.

Case in point, last year I was in genuine contention for winning the overall comp in VSDT. Was 3rd midway through the byes.
Then Jake Friend put a negative score in 6 minutes of play and Manu Ma'u scored 5 in 11 minutes in the bye rounds, when both were PODs I had over the other top 10 teams. That wasn't the sole reason why I failed to win, but it certainly didn't help. Was having those players bad decision making, or bad luck? I'm sure everyone with a top 10 finish in recent years can point to 1 or 2 events out of their control that played a part in the season.


BTW, with Cleary injured, and with Maloney at the price he was, his benefit was fairly apparent. There is a reason why so many people on this forum traded him in. Maloney performed even better than expectations, but there was clear potneital there.

Id hazard a guess to say that those who are doing well have followed some or post of the below general statements:

• Had Isaako, Hiku, Kikau and Havili, ponga from early on, and held until rd13 roughly. Focusing trades on forwards etc
  
  
• Didn't hold NBrown
  
  
• Had Cook from the start and captained him from early on
  
  
• Hasn't dabbled in Inglis, Dugan or Aubbs
  
  
• Avoided inexperienced halves
  

Milchcow wrote:

Getting into the top 100 takes skill, especially doing it consistently.

Actually winning it from that position is where luck comes in. Have to avoid those 1st minute injuries where players get a shit score and also drop heaps in cash making replacements hard to find.

Case in point, last year I was in genuine contention for winning the overall comp in VSDT. Was 3rd midway through the byes.
Then Jake Friend put a negative score in 6 minutes of play and Manu Ma'u scored 5 in 11 minutes in the bye rounds, when both were PODs I had over the other top 10 teams. That wasn't the sole reason why I failed to win, but it certainly didn't help. Was having those players bad decision making, or bad luck? I'm sure everyone with a top 10 finish in recent years can point to 1 or 2 events out of their control that played a part in the season.


BTW, with Cleary injured, and with Maloney at the price he was, his benefit was fairly apparent. There is a reason why so many people on this forum traded him in. Maloney performed even better than expectations, but there was clear potneital there.

My point is, this place helps you identify the obvious picks, picking the PODs is where the luck comes in. There is a reason they are considered pods. If they were sure things, everyone would be on it.

filthridden wrote:Anyone got any information around late season cows last year? I don't remember much but it would be interesting to see if there were any who could've been potentially considered "keepers" given a cheap price and excellent scoring in the later rounds.

Even anecdotally, anyone remember any stand out players?

Andgus Crichton didn't get a starting spot for a couple of weeks.

CHN was the obvious mid/late-season stand out.

Dylan Edwards played 2 games in the first 10 rounds or so before becoming a permanent fixture and killing it.

Twal, Eisenhuth and Marsters were all good late season cows for the Tigers

Lachlan Fitzgibbon also went alright.

Fortitude wrote:Id hazard a guess to say that those who are doing well have followed some or post of the below general statements:

• Had Isaako, Hiku, Kikau and Havili, ponga from early on, and held until rd13 roughly. Focusing trades on forwards etc
  
  
• Didn't hold NBrown
  
  
• Had Cook from the start and captained him from early on
  
  
• Hasn't dabbled in Inglis, Dugan or Aubbs
  
  
• Avoided inexperienced halves
  

Lachlan Croker. Made less than $100k, took too long to make it and only scored more than 30 on three occasions.
Going for a cheap starting half was probably my biggest regret. That and being fooled by Hayne and Dugan once again.

Inglis hasn't been too bad lately. Averaging 40 in his last 5 games. Missing a game with origin and the game after was annoying though.
He's not a priority for me to upgrade with what I've got so I am treating him as a centre keeper now.

I still haven't jumped off Murray who is stinking up my 17, I've still got Martin hanging around because I'm hoping to save the trade and I'm still trying to figure out who to trade in for Corey Thompson.

I tend to finish 500-1000 these days and I'm still hoping for that.

Milchcow wrote:

Andgus Crichton didn't get a starting spot for a couple of weeks.

CHN was the obvious mid/late-season stand out.

Dylan Edwards played 2 games in the first 10 rounds or so before becoming a permanent fixture and killing it.

Twal, Eisenhuth and Marsters were all good late season cows for the Tigers

Lachlan Fitzgibbon also went alright.

I seem to remember Tyrone May came in as a minimum and scored a handful of 50 plus games.

Fortitude wrote:
My point is, this place helps you identify the obvious picks, picking the PODs is where the luck comes in. There is a reason they are considered pods. If they were sure things, everyone would be on it.

A lot of the luck comes from injuries to other players

eg Mitch Rein - he had obvious scoring potential, but it was reliant on Nathan Peats not playing. He arguably played enough to be worth it - but is it luck or skill if you decide to trade him in?
What if Peats had been like McCullough, and only missed 1 week. or he could have been like Nathan Brown, and Rein might still be scoring 50+ as starter. Getting these calls right is what you need to have happen to win.



I'll make a prediction on R&Ts project.

The 'winner' of his study will be someone who runs out of trades pretty early. But in general, those with more trades left now will do better than those with few.

Farah to tigers set to be confirmed today.

Welcome to my team Robbie you snake

Fortitude wrote:

I seem to remember Tyrone May came in as a minimum and scored a handful of 50 plus games.

Yep

$138k in round 19, finished at $340k

Yep, welcome to my team too, Robbie.

Milchcow wrote:


I'll make a prediction on R&Ts project.

The 'winner' of his study will be someone who runs out of trades pretty early. But in general, those with more trades left now will do better than those with few.

I'd put money on this outcome. Playing conservatively is far more likely to get you a good rank but makes you far less likely to actually win.

Milchcow wrote:

A lot of the luck comes from injuries to  other players

eg Mitch Rein - he had obvious scoring potential, but it was reliant on Nathan Peats not playing. He arguably played enough to be worth it - but is it luck or skill if you decide to trade him in?
What if Peats had been like McCullough, and only missed 1 week. or he could have been like Nathan Brown, and Rein might still be scoring 50+ as starter. Getting these calls right is what you need to have happen to win.



I'll make a prediction on R&Ts project.

The 'winner' of his study will be someone who runs out of trades pretty early. But in general, those with more trades left now will do better than those with few.

Rein and Maloney were calculated risks. Those that brought them in did the research, made the call on how the scores fared when they were in previous, similar situations (Maloney as main half doing majority of kicking, Peats playing 80 or close to). I kept my expectations pretty realistic and jumped off both at the right time (potentially could've kept Maloney longer). Was extremely happy with the output and cash from them.

Cook, Smith, McInnes, Farah too much??

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Cook, Smith, McInnes, Farah too much??

....Or not enough?



Id say enough

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Cook, Smith, McInnes, Farah too much??

Farah will be mass traded in this round. He is probably the best value trade in you can make at the moment.

If you already have Cook, Smith and McInnes, then you may as well make it the full house.

Presumably you have 1 DPP 2RF/FRF to provide cover there. Maybe you'll be leaving yourself open to danger if 2 of your forwards go down in the same week - its the risk you have to consider.

You CTR/WFB cover won't be in your 17 so is pretty much irrelevant.

So it sort of depends on who your HLF cover is and how happy you are to run with your team that way.