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I would plump for AFB

#PlumpForFonua

StuDogg101 wrote:If it was between AFB and Surgess I would plump for AFB. Surgess doesn't excite me at all so far this season, even over Origin

Agreed

I don't see the point of trading AFB in.

We'll get a R12 boost to our scoring, and maybe make a small amount of cash. But he's not a keeper and I just can't see how bringing him in is worth spending trades on.

Similarly I don't see what Surgess brings us other than a R12 scoring bump and saddling us with a guy we'll just want to trade out 3 weeks later.

Now that Lomax is named at FB we can play him in our CTR and dump Xerri who seems to be going nowhere. In my teams I'm punting on Herbert in for Xerri.
Also think keeping Carty for next week score and get rid of Lawie this week.
So play Lomax at CTR. Bench Carty by moving Ponga to HLF and play Sivo as WFB.
Lawrie and Xerri are the trade outs for me this week. Lawrie is the priority.

Papenhuyzen a no go unless there is a late change, Storm play Sunday so makes it hard to plan around possible late change (Lawrie to Pap?)

If we want a cash out Jai Field might be the go.

not super keen on trading for the sake of it but Lawrie to a round 12 player would be the way to go if we do anything

How are we doing in the Celeb League at the moment vs CK, Scout, Renegades etc?

Got a bit of a lead at the top

Compared to the Renegades in 2nd place, we played Taupau, Xerri and Mahoney last week, they played Burgess, Lomax and Morgan, so we have a bit of an advantage over them (don't know what their trades and bank is like)

I'd normally post up some trade options but it kinda feels like we are trading for tradings sake here.

I don't mind a plan where we run plan to load up on r12 and rd16. We are trying to win the comp here and have no head to head leagues to care about really. Aiming for 2-3 trades left post origin is likely the play.

We currently have 17 trades and are due to spend 10 on the following guys

Rein, Mahoney, Young, Dearden, Sivo, Lawrie, Lomax, Xerri, Carty, CNK

I'd also reckon we could sell the following

- Arrow (use the multi trade week in rd 12 to get another player and get him back in post origin)
- Taupau (post rd 12 - dont believe he is a keeper)

That's 12 trades of our remaining 17 leaving 3 if we want to bring these guys back in or 5 for injury.........

Lawrie to Farah/McInnes is the obvious one for me this week (more points this week and gun player). Or maybe even Bateman but that seems bold.........

Next week can go

Arrow to AFB/Surgess/Cash out
Xerri to cash out (Edwards ?)

Following that in rd 13 we max trade all the way and get A 2nd half (Pearce?), Bateman, Farah, McInnes, RTS/Turbo, Cook and the rest need to start coming in.

Post the final bye round if we have more than 4 trades we've been too conservative. Less is okay but then you need to balance injury vs getting as many points as we can.

Next week is the best week to make trades though as we will know origin teams and can plan from there. But if we want to get ahead of the curve there aren't any must buy players that dont also have origin IMO.

What about Lawrie to Ash Taylor? Looks to be back to full health, good 3rd avg could play alongside Reynolds in the halves for a few weeks then sit as cover in 18-21 and be a potential money grab late in the season. Means we don’t need to play Cartwright and after rd 12 carty gets upgrade to gun half

Even with 17 trades I think Farah > Taylor even with the extra Rd 12 game. Taylor will require an extra trade long term. I also think trading out Arrow is silly for what could be one game and S. Burgess is just uninspiring. Cartwright is a definite upgrade target post Rd 12 and DCE (Even though he still misses 1 game) will probably be the best option.

100% not trading for trades sake IMO.

We have Carty as our starting half OR we are taking a punt on Sivo. Im not a fan of either so the sooner we sort that out the better.

I personally think Lawrie to RTS.

Cap'n Ranta wrote:I'd normally post up some trade options but it kinda feels like we are trading for tradings sake here.

I don't mind a plan where we run plan to load up on r12 and rd16. We are trying to win the comp here and have no head to head leagues to care about really. Aiming for 2-3 trades left post origin is likely the play.

We currently have 17 trades and are due to spend 10 on the following guys

Rein, Mahoney, Young, Dearden, Sivo, Lawrie, Lomax, Xerri, Carty, CNK

I'd also reckon we could sell the following

- Arrow (use the multi trade week in rd 12 to get another player and get him back in post origin)
- Taupau (post rd 12 - dont believe he is a keeper)

That's 12 trades of our remaining 17 leaving 3 if we want to bring these guys back in or 5 for injury.........

Lawrie to Farah/McInnes is the obvious one for me this week (more points this week and gun player). Or maybe even Bateman but that seems bold.........

Next week can go

Arrow to AFB/Surgess/Cash out
Xerri to cash out (Edwards ?)

Following that in rd 13 we max trade all the way and get A 2nd half (Pearce?), Bateman, Farah, McInnes, RTS/Turbo, Cook and the rest need to start coming in.

Post the final bye round if we have more than 4 trades we've been too conservative. Less is okay but then you need to balance injury vs getting as many points as we can.

Next week is the best week to make trades though as we will know origin teams and can plan from there. But if we want to get ahead of the curve there aren't any must buy players that dont also have origin IMO.

I like the plan. 100% agree, if we have >4 trades left after putting together our final team we've stuffed things up.

Has anyone checked, can we afford to make those 10 trades and get the 7 keepers in we want? We need to figure that out quick smart cause that will dictate the type of cash out/cash cows we need to bring in this week and next! (sorry dont have the time).

So if thats what we are doing, I see no reason why we dont pull the trigger on Lawrie to RTS this week? or Lawrie to Pearce, or Lawrie to someone that mitigates the risk of playing either Sivo or Carty this week!

Milchy wrote:
I don't see the point of trading AFB in.

We'll get a R12 boost to our scoring, and maybe make a small amount of cash. But he's not a keeper and I just can't see how bringing him in is worth spending trades on.

Similarly I don't see what Surgess brings us other than a R12 scoring bump and saddling us with a guy we'll just want to trade out 3 weeks later.

On the balance of probabilities I think you are right, but every decision in fantasy has some risk. If we want to do as best we can this season, and make a fucken mark, rather than meandering to 500th place, we have to take a POD type risk, something that if it pays off halves our ranking.

Im not sure what that is but Im all for us pulling the trigger on something to differentiate up from the 1000 teams we are trying to catch. It has to involve an extra trade for round 12 and 16 IMO.

We have the trades to do it, we just need to figure out what is the most likely more to pay off.

Im also not opposed to dumping one of our Origin guys, one that we think most likely gets an additional rest. Arrow & Teddy seem the logical candidates.

Shanbon wrote:What about Lawrie to Ash Taylor?  Looks to be back to full health, good 3rd avg could play alongside Reynolds in the halves for a few weeks then sit as cover in 18-21 and be a potential money grab late in the season. Means we don’t need to play Cartwright and after rd 12 carty gets upgrade to gun half

whats the latest on Brimson/Gordon? Brimson a nice price too.

I think Taylor is worth exploring but I need to understand what's the deal with his KM playing alongside Roberts. Without those base stats for 300+KM I dont think Taylor is a good option, but the KM stats are all over the place with those two playing together.

Random wrote:Even with 17 trades I think Farah > Taylor even with the extra Rd 12 game. Taylor will require an extra trade long term. I also think trading out Arrow is silly for what could be one game and S. Burgess is just uninspiring. Cartwright is a definite upgrade target post Rd 12 and DCE (Even though he still misses 1 game) will probably be the best option.

I feel like that one is apples and oranges a bit inset it?

Farah would be a keeper and is priced accordingly

Taylor, who I personally dont think is a particularly great option, but there are others out there that are comparable, would be purchased for a cash grab + extra round 12 body.

Jeeze, theres a few point from me...sorry lads.

Last thing though cause I dont see it mentioned. Tapine surely an option next week? The kid can go big (see end of last season). Would be a risk, but perhaps one that not many will take cause his price won't have bottomed out prior to 12. Could be gold. Extra round 12 body. will likely make cash through to 16, and could even be a keeper if he gets back to his best.

He's pretty well priced too.

Oh, and JFH.

For me, we gotta take the punt on one of JFH, Tapine, AFB, and Surgess.

Arrow is a keeper, currently 14th highest average (discount Friend but including Bateman, TTrbo and DCE)
Unless we think he is going to be heavily rested over origin we want to keep him

The following are all keepers and I wouldn't trade them out
Smith
Fifita
Haas
Taumalolo
Murray
Arrow
ARey
Nikora
Ponga
Tedesco

Taupau is a possible keeper

The following are trade outs between R12 and R16

Cartwright
Rein
CNK
Sivo
Young
Mahoney

That's currently $3288 for 5 starters and 1 cashout (can also cash out Dearden/Lawrie/Lomax for funds)
Other than Young (and even he is a bit iffy), can't rely on big cash rises for any of them
But don't forget we also have $484k in the bank to use as well

If we bring in Taylor that is another person we have to trade out before R16 - do we think he cabn sustain his average long enough to make decent money. Every chance he's going to put up a 25 in the next couple of weeks and put a brake on the price rise.

We really need to set a goal at this point I think. There seems to be two trains of thought with one going all out and one playing a safer approach to beat the other celebs.

Edit. Personally I think I'm more for the safe option. If it was my personal team I'd risk it but if we start trading out keepers and risking POD's only to get spanked by LS and Renegades there will be a lot of unhappy posters come seasons end.

Krump wrote:We really need to set a goal at this point I think. There seems to be two trains of thought with one going all out and one playing a safer approach to beat the other celebs.

Edit. Personally I think I'm more for the safe option. If it was my personal team I'd risk it but if we start trading out keepers and risking POD's only to get spanked by LS and Renegades there will be a lot of unhappy posters come seasons end.

Fuck that I wanna make a mark. We are in a position to get top 100 here if we have some ballz and really make a mark among the celeb teams. If we play safe, as you say, we will likely beat the other celebs but it won't be memorable.

I agree with you 100% though, we need some direction, a common goal. But I think its impossible to get it now - we probably needed to decide that prior to the season starting, and in fact, if we do this again, I'll be a campaigner for trying to establish something along those. That said, we all signed up to this knowing how it will work, so each camp can only promote its own way of thinking and see which direction the masses follow.

Its pretty clear to me that people on average just want to play it safe. I personally find that pretty boring, but as always, if the majority want to play it that way, then so it shall be

I'm probably in the "safe" camp, certainly with my own team, in that I think running with less than 4 trades post-origin is suicidal. There are 9 rounds left, more than in previous years, and it's a huge risk. Maybe possible if we run with a 19-gun squad, but don't think we're set up for that.

Don't know what the optimum number of trades left is and it's probably worth discussion, but certainly not under 4.