NRLFF community managed fantasy team

Cap'n Ranta wrote:Hey Guys,

I'm back. Sorry for not making it last week but got absolutely smashed at work. Looks like the team did pretty well without me. Big thanks to Milchy and RnT for stepping up and running this.

Still a bit tight on time but throwing my thoughts out there:

With Keepers it doesn't matter what bye round they play. We won't be trading them out so a Milford vs Lolo debate doesn't matter to me (bird in the hand is always better but I'll live).
It only matters with cash outs. If we get one playing 12 now it would help our numbers and scoring in 12 while also making cash. We are super low on trades though so while I'd love to take a punt on anyone we need to risk vs reward it.

347k in the bank means we can buy pretty much any player we want

Trade Outs:
In my order of priority this week

Burr - Non 12 player that has a BE above his projected score. Not a lot of cash upside left in hoping for him to go back to 45+ scoring (unless he's a gun that goes 50.....IMO unlikely)
Morgan - will play origin and will score 35-45 in the meantime (Not a lot of upside though he could jag a few scores)
Mahoney - hold for 12 but another poor score could force us to reconsider
Lawrie - Limited Cash upside but still would back to hit his BE for at least this week (more likely than those above him)
Sivo - BE of 26 - Suspended for a week. If we hold for 2 games we get a rd12 scorer - easy hold
Rein/CNK/Carty - both should be fine to get us to 12 while holding price
Lomax/Dearden/Xerri - still making cash (probably a stretch to still be in our team on 2nd bye round)
Everyone else - Keeper Don't touch them!

Trade Ins:
Assuming we followed my list we could have 1493k to put into players. Thats 2 keepers almost.........

Keepers:
Lolo - from a cash perspective he could wait a week
Farah - I'm concerned with Liddle - again from aa cash perspective could wait a week
Cook - Plays origin and also likely misses rd 13 but wont be cheaper in rd14
Milford - I'm grabbing him this week for my team. 500+ km as well as the dominant attacking threat (shades of DCE for me). Will be incosistent but should have a much higher floor. The better Moses.
RTS - Can wait for CNK
Turbo - Can wait for CNK
Cleary - Origin player

Cashies
L. Martin : He could be worth it.
H. Young : Tapine is the main concern. Ricky is also a concern.
Seve : Sneaky 2nd bye player with clear path to playing time (Scott broken foot)
Staggs : Sneaky 2nd bye player with path to playing time (Roberts is out, Bird is out)
Herbert : Sneaky 2nd bye player with path to playing time (he's still on the team)
Turpin : Seggy likely hits this too hard
Allan: Nothing impressive so far
Field: No JS (wont be there for his bye rd)
Simonsson: Will play 12 might be worth it..........


For me:

I bring in Milford for Morgan this week (rising price - gives us a good halves pairing).

Next week Farah and Tolo in based on minutes and form this should be close enough to the bottom.

To facilitate the double trade I would go for one of Martin or Young this week. Could even go both if people aren't sold on Milford. Best JS wise I'd bank on Staggs and Seve of that list but they dont play rd 12.

Or go for the points and bring in Tolo this week and probably Young...... Next week we can grab whoever we like.

Will put up the trade poll in the next 12 hours but just wanted to see if people have any other guys they want to put forward.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Agree with most of this.

I dont agree that it doesn't matter what bye round a player plays with regards to guns, here's why.

It comes down to how far you have to project out. For round 12 its 3 games, for round 16 its 7. That's twice the risk of injury for a start. In other words in the Milf Tolo example, there is more chance Milf won't play 16 than Tolo won't play 12. Also while in theory you could go Milf this week and Tolo next, you never know whats around the corner. A couple injuries and you may well find your self in a position where next week we cant get Tolo - safe to get the round 12 player first as you have more time to get the round 16 guys. Lastly, regarding guns, who often are an Origin chance, projecting out to round 16 is a lot more difficult than predicting Origin 1 squads. Again re Milf vs Tolo, I think there is a risk Milford could play Origin 3. QLD may well be 2 nil down by then and be looking to make changes. Also, injury to anyone of the current halves probably puts Milf into serious reckoning.

In short, while it may be slightly nuanced, with Keepers it does t matter what bye round they play.

Cap'n Ranta wrote:

Milford may not be the best example with origin concerns but he was the first person I thought of. Cant plan for injuries but I do agree its easier to project to.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Yeah, that's my point. Basically every week a player is training and playing increases exposure risk to injury. All else equal, more chance a player will miss round 16 than 12 at this stage. Hence why I think prioritising bye planning for the first week is more sensible and hands down it would be Tolo for me this week.

I do like Milford though - but he's risky IMO.

TheWeapon wrote:How about Lawrie to AFB?

Cap'n Ranta wrote:

Depends on what value you are seeing in AFB?

I think with Taupau, Haas and Fifita we are pretty set on keeper FRFs. Personally I don't see the value (the two trades we spend to get 45 points next week).

Is there something else you are seeing that makes him a better proposition?

Milchy wrote:
I guess one option is whether we make a play for Papenhuyzen or not.
Depends on where he and Hughes are named this week, but he's a potential keeper, for much cheaper than RTS

Milchy wrote:
Looking ahead post r12, we want to bring McInnes in r13 if we can, probably for Carty, maybe for Rein.

Other R16 keepers we might be interested in are Farah, RTS (depending on if we go Pap or not and if he works out) Milf, Matteson (possible origin?) Twal, Pearce.

We want to make sure we have room for Cook, JTurbo, Bateman for after Origin/injury return and maybe DCE and Ttrbo.

Cap'n Ranta wrote:

Depends on what value you are seeing in AFB?

I think with Taupau, Haas and Fifita we are pretty set on keeper FRFs. Personally I don't see the value (the two trades we spend to get 45 points next week).

Is there something else you are seeing that makes him a better proposition?

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

This all looks pretty sensible too.

If anyone has the time, I'd love to see what we can afford.

I wonder if Sam Burgess is a guy worth taking a risk on. Price has come right down and there's a chance he plays big minutes in the 13 jersey in round 12 and 13 if Murray plays Origin (I think he will).

Its probably a risk this team won't take but just throwing it out there!