NRLFF community managed fantasy team

Verbal Kint wrote:

Yep - for my team, if Batman isn't playing r12 (and news is firm this week) then I'm trading him

Yeah, Im just catching up on the round. I assumed from posts in the thread, he was going for 4+ weeks.

I agree that he is the key piece of news. I wouldn't want my season riding on a borderline call though. If I understand verbal correctly, Im in the same boat: unless is he basically confirmed as being back for 12 (this week), I'll be ditching him. I'd want some pretty concrete news that he will be back earlier to hold him (too much money to be tied up otherwise).

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Yeah, Im just catching up on the round. I assumed from posts in the thread, he was going for 4+ weeks.

I agree that he is the key piece of news. I wouldn't want my season riding on a borderline call though. If I understand verbal correctly, Im in the same boat: unless is he basically confirmed as being back for 12 (this week), I'll be ditching him. I'd want some pretty concrete news that he will be back earlier to hold him (too much money to be tied up otherwise).

Original thought was 4-10 weeks (coming from nrlphysio, not from Canberra) but since then I've read that it wasn't as serious as first thought and he might be back as soon as 3 weeks.

Just wait for some more news over the next few days.

Looks like he's an immediate trade - 5-6 weeks off according to
https://www.raiders.com.au/news/2019/05/06/injury-update-round-9/

I reckon we could run with Xerri this week if we wanted to (heck, even Lomax v the Warriors).

I'd be up for Bateman to Reynolds

Then would need to check out BEs, price projections and budget to figure out the next move.

Presumably Taumalolo and Farah still in our sights? Based on averages when is the peak time to grab those two?

Taumalolo BE 75 most likely to drop some cash this week and I think we can wait.

Farah BE 70 will probably drop a small amount of cash this week, but no harm grabbing him now.

Reynolds BE 55 is the top averaging half with DCE out. Price is unlikely to jump much either way this week.

Only other real options I think is if we want to make a play for Cook or Latrell.

Assuming CHT is not named, Reynolds has a strong case to build our halves.
Otherwise we have to play Morgan and Cartwright. Or move Ponga to halves and play Sivo in WFB
Neither of those options are terrible, so Reynolds not a must have, but its a consideration.

Given we are looking at Farah, I'd be pretty weary of getting any of those origin guys. Even if we go hard for 12 right now we will struggle for numbers and if we add Origin players on top of that I think we will fall well behind other top 100 teams.

I've been campaigning for weeks and will continue to do so, but IMO we just have to target the round 12 playing guys now.

IMO there are a few worth looking at depending on injury:

Elgey, Luai, Brimson are the cheaper options. And then ARey, Tolo, JFH, Martin are guys I like at the upper end.

The key though this week is positioning our selves so we can grab both Farah and Tolo next week. Looks like we will need $1.5m.

If we go Bateman to Reynolds, we net $50k taking CITB to $130k.

If you look at our options to get Farah and Tolo next week they are pretty limited. To start with we'd have to cash out someone this week and CHT wouldn't be enough unless the following week one of our big guys gets chopped.

Anyone care to post up a two week plan?

Rippin and Tearin wrote:Given we are looking at Farah, I'd be pretty weary of getting any of those origin guys. Even if we go hard for 12 right now we will struggle for numbers and if we add Origin players on top of that I think we will fall well behind other top 100 teams.

I've been campaigning for weeks and will continue to do so, but IMO we just have to target the round 12 playing guys now.

IMO there are a few worth looking at depending on injury:

Elgey, Luai, Brimson are the cheaper options. And then ARey, Tolo, JFH, Martin are guys I like at the upper end.

The key though this week is positioning our selves so we can grab both Farah and Tolo next week. Looks like we will need $1.5m.

If we go Bateman to Reynolds, we net $50k taking CITB to $130k.

If you look at our options to get Farah and Tolo next week they are pretty limited. To start with we'd have to cash out someone this week and CHT wouldn't be enough unless the following week one of our big guys gets chopped.

Anyone care to post up a two week plan?

A key thing to determine is if we see Arrow as a keeper, or tradeable to get Tolo in?

Captain is away, so Milch and I will try and set the scene for this week. Im a bit under the pump at work too so will start with a quick post on who our trade-out candidates are - in no particular order:

CHT $453k - I dont see him getting any more game time unless there are injuries. Poor fullah, did all that could be asked of him!

Batman $776k - by all accounts he will be out until at least after the first bye round so he's a trade (either this week or next one would think.

Morgan $585 - his name gets thrown around as a trade out. Given our other issues Im not sure this is the week to do it though. BE 42, average ~45 and has some big guns back to help him out. Also, we are already down to two fit halves (and one is Carty). That said, Morgan must be on the chopping block prior to 12 given he'll play Origin.

Burr $582k BE 30. I personally see Burr as a hold until round 11/12. He'll continue to make money, should go OK this week again with Blair out, and is serviceable in our 17 with a decent average of 45.

EDIT - I forgot Lawrie $570k BE 25. I put him in the same boat as Burr. Will make money and is a good trade out candidate prior to 12. He's averaging 46.

Outside of that, I agree with Matt above, but will extend that to all our Origin guys. We have a decision to make around whether or not we go into the bye rounds holding all of Arrow, Teddy, Ponga, Murray, Smith?. I think there is a strong case to ditch one of these guys, maybe two, But that call is for another week. Unless I've over looked something, the trade outs candidates for this week are the four above, and to be honest, Im not sure why we would go past the first two.

Any thoughts guys?

Perhaps the only reason to not trade Bateman is to keep him to loop our C position.

mattnz wrote:

A key thing to determine is if we see Arrow as a keeper, or tradeable to get Tolo in?

Arrow is the 4th best averaging 2RF in the game, and 2 of the ones above him are Bateman and Nikora, who also play in the centres. So I say yes he is a keeper

In terms of trade-ins, I haven't had time to get my head around TLT so I'll open up the floor.

The environment we are working in is that we have $79k CITB

We currently have 6, YES 6 players for round 12 (assuming Murray plays Origin). That is gonna really hurt us IMO! unless we get onto that ASAP.

Guys I've seen mentioned a bit include:

Potential keepers
Jason Taumalolo $767k BE 73 plays 12 last years average ~55 priced at ~50
Arey $722k BE 52 plays 12 this years average ~55, last years average ~55 priced ~51
Pearce $637k BE 19 this years average ~46, last years ave ~49 priced at ~43
Farah $753k BE 66 this years average ~59, last years ave ~55, priced at ~53
Martin $657k BE  plays 12 this years average ~46, last years ave ~51, priced at ~43

Cashouts
Hudson Young $213k plays 12
Flannagan $318k
Deardon $233k
Turpin $248K

My preference based on the above would be two trades.

CHT to Young
Bateman to ARey

That would take our bank to $375k and put us in a decent position to make a move for two big guns next week. E.g. if we traded two of Lawrie/Burr/Morgan next week, we'd have ~ $1.55m and therefore we would basically be able to afford what ever two guns we wanted. I would suggest Tolo / Farah.

It would mean we have a decent halves pairing of Morgan and Arey (as opposed to having to play Carty)
It would also mean we have to play either Xerri or Lomax as our 2nd C.

CHT has to go, and I would be keeping Burr for now.

Have to look at who we can afford before deciding 2nd tradeout, so will have a look today.

Round 9 results

Burr, Lawrie and Morgan potential trade outs, but not sure any are urgent.

Have the funds to bring a gun in if we want too though.

Milchy wrote:
Burr, Lawrie and Morgan potential trade outs, but not sure any are urgent.

Have the funds to bring a gun in if we want too though.

Very first quick looks - Tolo seems like the obvious IN.

Will post my thoughts after looking at the numbers and TLT.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Very first quick looks - Tolo seems like the obvious IN.

Will post my thoughts after looking at the numbers and TLT.

I like Burr to Taumalolo. Maybe Morgan to Walker if we can afford it?

Great work guys - we're going pretty strong!

To help with suggestions:

Burr has a BE of 49, averaging 43 (last 3 ave 37) and based on at the updated MN is fully priced.

Morgan = BE 48, ave 44 (39) and priced at 42 (so 2 points value)

Lawrie = BE 39, 44 (44) priced at 43 (1 point value).

TLDR Trade outs the week are Burr and Morgan IMO.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:To help with suggestions:

Burr has a BE of 49, averaging 43 (last 3 ave 37) and based on at the updated MN is fully priced.

Morgan = BE 48, ave 44 (39) and priced at 42 (so 2 points value)

Lawrie = BE 39, 44 (44) priced at 43 (1 point value).

TLDR Trade outs the week are Burr and Morgan IMO.

Agree. I think Lawrie hits his BE this week.

If I had Morgan and Burr they would be traded before Lawrie. Noting that I'm trading Lawrie due to having no other peaked cows.

After looking at the team lists I think Burr to Tolo

and

Morgan to L. Martin or Young

Personally think we need to take a punt on one of these guys for round 12 and the money they'll make otherwise I see us struggling for funds later (as week as round 12 points).

Hey Guys,

I'm back. Sorry for not making it last week but got absolutely smashed at work. Looks like the team did pretty well without me. Big thanks to Milchy and RnT for stepping up and running this.

Still a bit tight on time but throwing my thoughts out there:

With Keepers it doesn't matter what bye round they play. We won't be trading them out so a Milford vs Lolo debate doesn't matter to me (bird in the hand is always better but I'll live).
It only matters with cash outs. If we get one playing 12 now it would help our numbers and scoring in 12 while also making cash. We are super low on trades though so while I'd love to take a punt on anyone we need to risk vs reward it.

347k in the bank means we can buy pretty much any player we want

Trade Outs:
In my order of priority this week

Burr - Non 12 player that has a BE above his projected score. Not a lot of cash upside left in hoping for him to go back to 45+ scoring (unless he's a gun that goes 50.....IMO unlikely)
Morgan - will play origin and will score 35-45 in the meantime (Not a lot of upside though he could jag a few scores)
Mahoney - hold for 12 but another poor score could force us to reconsider
Lawrie - Limited Cash upside but still would back to hit his BE for at least this week (more likely than those above him)
Sivo - BE of 26 - Suspended for a week. If we hold for 2 games we get a rd12 scorer - easy hold
Rein/CNK/Carty - both should be fine to get us to 12 while holding price
Lomax/Dearden/Xerri - still making cash (probably a stretch to still be in our team on 2nd bye round)
Everyone else - Keeper Don't touch them!

Trade Ins:
Assuming we followed my list we could have 1493k to put into players. Thats 2 keepers almost.........

Keepers:
Lolo - from a cash perspective he could wait a week
Farah - I'm concerned with Liddle - again from aa cash perspective could wait a week
Cook - Plays origin and also likely misses rd 13 but wont be cheaper in rd14
Milford - I'm grabbing him this week for my team. 500+ km as well as the dominant attacking threat (shades of DCE for me). Will be incosistent but should have a much higher floor. The better Moses.
RTS - Can wait for CNK
Turbo - Can wait for CNK
Cleary - Origin player

Cashies
L. Martin : He could be worth it.
H. Young : Tapine is the main concern. Ricky is also a concern.
Seve : Sneaky 2nd bye player with clear path to playing time (Scott broken foot)
Staggs : Sneaky 2nd bye player with path to playing time (Roberts is out, Bird is out)
Herbert : Sneaky 2nd bye player with path to playing time (he's still on the team)
Turpin : Seggy likely hits this too hard
Allan: Nothing impressive so far
Field: No JS (wont be there for his bye rd)
Simonsson: Will play 12 might be worth it..........


For me:

I bring in Milford for Morgan this week (rising price - gives us a good halves pairing).

Next week Farah and Tolo in based on minutes and form this should be close enough to the bottom.

To facilitate the double trade I would go for one of Martin or Young this week. Could even go both if people aren't sold on Milford. Best JS wise I'd bank on Staggs and Seve of that list but they dont play rd 12.

Or go for the points and bring in Tolo this week and probably Young...... Next week we can grab whoever we like.

Will put up the trade poll in the next 12 hours but just wanted to see if people have any other guys they want to put forward.

Thinking Martin over Young for potential longer term JS if we need to bring in a cow.
Tolo in this week for me. We can do it and it preempts next weeks problems.