by mattnz Sun Feb 10, 2019 12:13 pm
I find the discussion of PPM to be interesting.
A broader view of what the different factors we are looking at when determining who are good candidates for our team is also worth discussing.
For me, the primary one is being under-valued, I am not looking to bring in a solid gun just because they are a solid gun, I have to see a reason for them to be undervalued and that they should out-score their current price.
The following are the key determinants I see of whether someone makes it into my team, I have ended up creating a points ranking system that has helped me to rank players to bring in based on:
- Change in team role, for example was playing centre, now in 2nd row or fullback, which both tend to score better
- Expected change in minutes, which I tend to use PPM as a guide for, with a slight reduction in PPM as minutes increase.
- If a position is hard to fill, I give it greater importance to spend money on it, than others that have many options. This year I have prioritized Centers, Halves and WFB as key areas worth spending on, as the forwards have many great options that all provide value.
- PODs - I personally prefer to have a POD in my team, rather than a player everyone else has. The theory is that if your goal is to win outright, the more differentiated your team is from everyone elses the better.
- Injury - If a player had injuries last season that impacted their scoring but are unlikely to be an issue for them this year, then they are worth looking at as undervalued. Haas, Smith, Arrow and Matterson are good examples this year.
- Form change - I actually have a negative score in my ranking system for relying on form change for a player. I would rather stack my team with multiple increased minutes guys relying on their PPM being close to what they had on lower minutes, than relying on form to change. For me that has removed a number of players that others are including, like Morgan, Bird, Carty, Elgey. It is not a reliable way to choose players. The last couple of years applying this principle would keep you away from guys like JBrom, hoping they get back to their best.
- ISP scoring - I have done a lot of research and deliberately selected players that killed it in ISP last season but may not have the starting price to reflect it. It is also keeping me away from guys that may get a start but scored really badly in ISP. I saw an article recently talking up Cooper Johns as a potential starter for Melbourne at some point, in QLD cup he averaged 16.3.
- Who they have around them that can make them better players. Deliberately added SJs winger (also for some of the factors above in that case).
- Sub-gun players - these are my favourites. If you can find a player that is priced 10 points less than gun status in their position and you expect them to reach gun status as a keeper for the season, they are a must have. Both saves you salary cap and no need to trade them all season. To me they are the most important finds to add to your team.
- Captain - You need 1 or 2 players that you can rely on consistently throughout the year for big scores to name as captain each week. I want my captain to also be under-valued. You don't want to have a sub-par captain and be missing 10 points a week until you can upgrade them.
- Plays first bye - Having players that play the first bye help you to save trades leading into the bye. The only caution here is that you don't want players that need to be traded before the first bye to upgrade them, just before round 12. Sub-gun value players that play the first bye are gold!
- Don't play origin - Not playing either bye makes origin players less valuable.
- Role uncertainty - If a player is named round 1 to start, but other players are due back in a few rounds that are likely to take their spot, don't bother with them. Example last season was Ligi Sao.
- Bottom price bargains - You need to work out who the best of the <$250k guys are and stack your team with all those that make sense, then see how much that leaves you with to fill out the rest of your team with.
- Duals - Get as many of them as you can, they provide flexibility and can save you trades during the season.
- Maximum points value - Work out the expected scores of everyone in your team together to maximize it. Sometimes it is worth allowing lower scores in certain positions to maximize them in others.
- Non-playing reserves - NPRs should have very little money spent on them. They are purely there as cash cows. Putting someone like Egan or Bird in as NPR is leaving points on the table each week, that you could have used the extra money for somewhere else.
Through having a list of ranked players in order, it has helped me to determine which players are better than others, for the way that I want to play the game this season, with much greater clarity than before I created a ranking system.
When we hit TLT, I expect that many of the mid rangers I have identified will need to be replaced with a bottom dollar player, as more of them come out of the woodwork, and because of that i will be adding more sub-guns. Seeing guys like Arrow and Matterson who currently aren't in my draft team, getting added at TLT when I firm things up.
Last edited by mattnz on Sun Feb 10, 2019 12:18 pm; edited 1 time in total
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