2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4

Milchy wrote:



Looking at 'points' is much better than PPM

Check what scores a player has achieved playing X minutes. If he has never played X minutes before, then that's one hint you might be getting the next Kane Evans

Using PPM is my pet hate. I don't care if it takes you 7 minutes or 70 minutes to score your 50+ points I will want you in my team

King Assassin wrote:

They did get a decent replacement in sims tho and blake "blocker" lawrie is a year older. If his minutes do increase i dont think it will be by a lot

His minutes don't really need to go up though. He's already getting plenty last year and the year before but his average points went down last year. IF JDB is out Vaughan would likely need to get through more work. That plus I would expect his average score to revert to some sort of mean between his last two seasons. I think he's undervalued, not sure by how much.

MilfordTheMagician wrote:*Logs into forum, sees Kane Elgey being talked up as a fantasy prospect.*

*Logs out of forum.*

No one was my friend, purely talking him up for the season in reality if you go back and read the discussion

From the Cowboys stampede, not sure of reliability:

NRL outfit North Queensland Cowboys are looking at the possibility of signing Catalans Dragons’ full-back Tony Gigot according to reports in Australia.

The Cowboys are aiming to secure a quick replacement for Ben Barba who was sacked by the club last week for allegedly assaulting his partner in a casino.

With Barba gone and their Premiership-winning full-back Lachlan Coote joining St Helens during the off-season, head coach Paul Green has pinpointed Gigot as a potential replacement.

The French international has previously spent time in Australia but failed to make a single appearance for Cronulla Sharks in 2013 after signing a one-year deal with the club.

Gigot, who helped the Dragons win their first major trophy in 2018, is out of contract at the end of this season and has lost his position at full-back to new signing Sam Tomkins.

The 28-year-old was pushed into the halves for the Dragons’ opening game of the season against Castleford and will be tempted by a big offer from the Cowboys.

Gigot returned to Super League in February last year after overturning a two-year suspension imposed by the French Anti-Doping Agency for an “inappropriate exchange” with a testing officer.

Since then, he has been in fine form and won the Lance Todd Trophy as man-of-the-match in the Challenge Cup final at Wembley, helping Catalans secure their first silverware.

The Cowboys are believed to have missed out on their number one target Alex Johnston, with South Sydney boss Wayne Bennett ruling out releasing the player so close to the season.

Now it seems Green is looking for more realistic options with the NRL season just over a month away and their rivals unwilling to let anyone depart at this stage.

Should Gigot leave, Catalans have a number of options with Samisoni Langi able to partner Matty Smith in the halves, allowing Sam Tomkins to continue at full-back.

It’s unlikely Steve McNamara will want to lose one of his star players, but with a burning desire to play in the NRL and with his contract coming to an end, Gigot may take the decision out of his hands.


https://www.seriousaboutrl.com/nort...hk_SvLhkFAL-vW4emOwMaI1fJaCSoSCLcIwMXpAF9muEI

FYI, the dressing room Broncos team was literally the team that the guy who sets up the rooms chose to put up. The room was set up the same way it would be on game day for the "members day" fan experience. There is nothing more to it.

@SI

That post from Mulvy reminded me it was Samisoni Langi we were talking about

Milchy wrote:



Looking at 'points' is much better than PPM

Check what scores a player has achieved playing X minutes. If he has never played X minutes before, then that's one hint you might be getting the next Kane Evans

I have to agree with this. I love your confidence in your own predictions @mattnz, but 55 points is elite and predicting it off ppm from limited sample size is a bold call. Milchy's theory of points in x minutes is a better one, but unfortunately that only gives us sample n=1.

A better argument for Fifita is perhaps the one that people are applying to Drinkwater. Limited NRL experience but people who have watched just know he is a star in the making. There's his ISP stats, but also a lot of gut feel about it. The same could be said about Fifita and if starting on  an edge, and with Seibold so far liking the 80 min edge backrower, there's no reason to think he couldn't avg 50 with upside making him an excellent pick priced around 40. He's certainly no Kane Evans (as a real life footballer I mean). With limited data though it's more of a gut call.

Maybe Welshy knows what this Tony Gigot is like?

So we are mixing things up a little bit in terms of the Rate My Thread being no more.

Instead we have a subcategory dedicated to people posting up their teams in separate threads, and in an effort to keep the flow of things we encourage people to add [R4R] to their posts. Meaning that if someone posts on the thread and then links back to their own thread. That you will kindly return the favour. Now this wont be strictly enforced as it will be more of the honour system. Anyway a link to the subforum.

https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/f11-assistant-coach

mattnz wrote:

Tell me a better one.

Minutes x PPM is a much more reliable indicator of expected future points than relying on a change of form for extra points.

Don't worry about the PPM haters mate. I use PPM majority of the time, admittedly I use PPM with different positions not a players overall PPM that has different position.

Example TPJ

@FRF - 38min, 41 pts, 1.09ppm 4 games (1 try)
@2RF - 56min, 49.5 pts, 0.81ppm 10 games (3 tries)
@lock - 56min, 46 pts, 0.82ppm 3 games
@ bench - 44min, 37 pts, 0.85ppm 4 games (1 try)

I keep more stats then just an overall ppm which is 0.86.

If it works for you, keep going with it

Over Xmas I don’t miss the nrl, I play plenty of golf there’s heaps of cricket then EPL in the evenings.

Am sick of the bbl rubbish now. Started watching nrl replays on fox league. What a game this is. Can’t wait to watch raiders get my hopes up and finish ninth again!

bluetige wrote:

Don't worry about the PPM haters mate. I use PPM majority of the time, admittedly I use PPM with different positions not a players overall PPM that has different position.

Example TPJ

@FRF - 38min, 41 pts, 1.09ppm 4 games (1 try)
@2RF - 56min, 49.5 pts, 0.81ppm 10 games (3 tries)
@lock - 56min, 46 pts, 0.82ppm 3 games
@ bench - 44min, 37 pts, 0.85ppm 4 games (1 try)

I keep more stats then just an overall ppm which is 0.86.

If it works for you, keep going with it

PPM is part of the picture we can use. Obviously it isn't going to be accurate every time, but when we're lacking data, we need to extrapolate from know information. I use PPM as a starting point, then take into consideration other factors to either confirm or reduce expected points x expected minutes

Rapture_NRL wrote:

PPM is part of the picture we can use. Obviously it isn't going to be accurate every time, but when we're lacking data, we need to extrapolate from know information. I use PPM as a starting point, then take into consideration other factors to either confirm or reduce expected points x expected minutes

Exactly, that data I provided for example. If I thought TPJ was going to be an 80 min edge forward, I wouldn't think he would score at 0.81ppm. That was over a 56min period, I would assume he would more likely score at 0.74ppm. That over 80min would give me a predicted score of 59.2. Thats just an example only

Top draw banner lad

bluetige wrote:

Exactly, that data I provided for example. If I thought TPJ was going to be an 80 min edge forward, I wouldn't think he would score at 0.81ppm. That was over a 56min period, I would assume he would more likely score at 0.74ppm. That over 80min would give me a predicted score of 59.2. Thats just an example only

Couldn't agree more. Have you looked further into PPM in ISP? I'd be interested in how well someone's work rate translates into NRL

I agree PPM is a tricky one, it generally doesn’t work. The only gut call I’ve made based purely on it that’s come off was actually to start with Vaughan back in 2017. Other than that, PPM’s rarely translate, especially when a player goes from a bench role to starting

Rapture_NRL wrote:

Couldn't agree more. Have you looked further into PPM in ISP? I'd be interested in how well someone's work rate translates into NRL

No I haven't, never tried. I've just heard different things in here and by the sounds of it looks difficult to work out any connection. Like Nathan Cleary for example, I think his average is better in the NRL then ISP. Then there's Abbey, scored well in ISP but is useless in NRL. I got no stats to back this up so I am just going by memory of what i read here. But I have a shit memory, (hence the need to write things down) so I might be wrong

MilfordTheMagician wrote:*Logs into forum, sees Kane Elgey being talked up as a fantasy prospect.*

*Logs out of forum.*

Someone also said that Korbin Sims was a decent player