2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 5

Verbal Kint wrote:Holland, right? I have room for him or Hampton. One of the H's will be there

I like Holland, had him last year and he made a massive difference to my team. Im surprised at how much love he seems to get here though. You are relying on a lot of attacking stats to get the required value IMO and I'd rather not take that risk at C especially with a guy playing for the Dogs. He's also not cheap. conceivably you could put 200k elsewhere and get more value. That said, I've had a close look at him and dont think he's a bad buy, just not for me given the make up of how I think my team will shape up.

Verbal Kint wrote:Holland, right? I have room for him or Hampton. One of the H's will be there

Yes Holland hits all my criteria perfectly, massively undervalued POD. Low minutes for a lot of last season, so is significantly underpriced but when he got his chance for 80 minutes he killed it. Doesn't rely on a change in form like Sezer, plays the first bye, undervalued keeper for the season. Owned by 2.7% and is pretty much guaranteed his place at center. There is lots of value out there with low ownership. For me he is first picked, but most of the comp don't even have him on their radar.

Fortitude wrote:

Wouldn’t even suggest he is high reward. Played with Williams (an organiser) last year, sucked. Played with Austin (a ball runner) sucked. No rapana, no recognised fullback, a recognised fullback playing as other half. Horrible pick.

I don't think he's the worst as a gambler's pickbif you're going all out for PODs, but as Ibsaid, wouldn't pick him myself.

Anyway, worked out the two ootions as per mtvb, one of them is priced slightly unders but in a position with more value, and the other will be in a lot of teams if he starts but is realistically 3rd or 4th chouce for two back row slots at his club when everyone's fit.

It's also a bit early to be looking at ownership (although I've had a fun 10 minutes doing just that.) 30k teams at the moment, they'll be looking for 100k come kickoff, and a fair few of them will be autofill.

Funnily enough I've currently got Holland in there already, and my back three are 5% or lower too. Again, I couldn't care less though whether other people have them too.

Verbal Kint wrote:Holland, right? I have room for him or Hampton. One of the H's will be there

My problem is I like Hampton as a person and a player lol this is making it difficult looking at Holland in my team but too many ?? over Hampton

Edit: I'm at the perfect number of posts now. I'll see myself out, it's been a pleasure

Re: Podchat

High ownership generally indicates value, either because the player has clear pedigree and will deliver on points or because the player has an objectively and clearly increased role for their price. But high ownership also mitigates a lot of the risk that is fundamentally unavoidable in the overall game; a player with high ownership who busts is a lot less painful to absorb simply because the majority of your competition are also in the position of having to deal with that player. A lot of the skill involved in fantasy comes down to how quickly you identify the problem and how calmly and effectively you manage it, but you'll still be at less of a disadvantage no matter how you act simply because a lot of your competition has to go through the same problem solving process.

The more PODs your team has the harder it is to compartmentalise the risk of failure, and the more you are left behind when your PODs bust. There is a reason the top 100 teams all look very similar after just a few weeks into the season, and it isn't because nobody has ever been bold enough to pick a team full of PODs.

mattnz wrote:

Yes Holland hits all my criteria perfectly, massively undervalued POD. Low minutes for a lot of last season, so is significantly underpriced but when he got his chance for 80 minutes he killed it. Doesn't rely on a change in form like Sezer, plays the first bye, undervalued keeper for the season. Owned by 2.7% and is pretty much guaranteed his place at center. There is lots of value out there with low ownership. For me he is first picked, but most of the comp don't even have him on their radar.

Thanks for stepping out the thinking here.

If you dont mind me asking, how does BMOZ rate in your analytics?

Isn't he priced around 30?

Rapture_NRL wrote:

My problem is I like Hampton as a person and a player lol this is making it difficult looking at Holland in my team but too many ?? over Hampton

Edit: I'm at the perfect number of posts now. I'll see myself out, it's been a pleasure

Holland average first 11 games as bench utility = 14 (why he is underpriced this season)
Holland average the last 10 games of the season as starting center = 45, gun performance at center position

mattnz wrote:

Yes Holland hits all my criteria perfectly, massively undervalued POD. Low minutes for a lot of last season, so is significantly underpriced but when he got his chance for 80 minutes he killed it. Doesn't rely on a change in form like Sezer, plays the first bye, undervalued keeper for the season. Owned by 2.7% and is pretty much guaranteed his place at center. There is lots of value out there with low ownership. For me he is first picked, but most of the comp don't even have him on their radar.

Actually, I've re-looked at Hollands numbers, and he's certainly up there as a top C contender - my apologies. I didnt realise his scoring was so high. He has a game that's made for fantasy and this year if he has the kicking duties that probably puts him into the reckoning as first C picked. Capewell is the 'safer bet' given base stats he will get, assuming he starts, and Im unsure what to make of Hamton. Trouble is, going with Holland and Capewell limits you elsewhere. IMO it'll require a couple starting 17 slots to be filled by CCs so will good enough cows come along to permit that kind of strategy? will wait and see.

my tv broke wrote:

I'd disagree with that. He has been talked about a hell of a lot, and I'd say he is on the radar of most players. But most just choose to go a more (expected) solid/reliable option (eg bateman/capewell) and/or cheaper (bird/lomax/etc).

He is priced at around 40. IMO, if he averages higher than that, it won't be by too much. Had a great run of form to end last season but it was also at a point when the pressure was off and games didn't matter.

Im not clear on the MN this year, but wouldn't Holland be priced more at 30 than 40?

Verbal Kint wrote:

Thanks for stepping out the thinking here.

If you dont mind me asking, how does BMOZ rate in your analytics?

Form what I can see he averaged the following over the last 5 years: 36 41 38 29 26

Last years 26 included a -2 from an injury affected game so perhaps 1 point undervalued straight away (all else equal).

Regression of scores over the years is a concern but may mean he has the potential to improve. I think making a call on what that means is key.

Big thing though is the switch to arguably the best team. Could mean he has some big attacking stats in him. Can he rack up the RM like Ferg? You;'d assume he scores a few more tries this year right?

Overall I think the Morris pick could be a big risk reward play but I dont know enough about him in real life rugby to have confidence picking him. How are others seeing him? Can he get back to a 40 average?

If Rhys Martin doesn't get named as a starter, then I will almost certainly run with Holland (who would presumably be goalkicker)

If Martin does start (or Holland is not guaranteed goal kicker for some other reason) then he'll still be under consideration, but is not a must-have

Since goal kickers seem to get the rave around here I wanted to have a look at halves that are now kicking for their team but didn't for the majority of the year last year. I could only come up with two.

Ash Taylor and potentially Jake Clifford.

Come to think of it if Michael Gordon ain't at fullback and given the Titans hopefully will have less injuries this year maybe Ash Taylor can rise to near keeper status.

For some reason Michael Morgan ain't filling me with much confidence.

Verbal Kint wrote:

Thanks for stepping out the thinking here.

If you dont mind me asking, how does BMOZ rate in your analytics?

He ranks poorly, with a 13, despite giving him a 9 point head start on his current price point, assuming he averages 35 on the wing.

The key things that count against him in my ranking system are:
1. Doesn't play the first bye
2. Won't be a keeper, so would require a trade at some point
3. Place in the side isn't guaranteed. Ryan Hall is highly rated and could take his spot when back from injury
4. Relies on form change, not increased minutes
5. Not dual position

I did give him a bonus point for playing in the Roosters vs last year at Dogs.

Highly owned players that scored poorly in my ranking system that I won't be playing this season:
Morgan (+9 undervalued, scored 13) - Origin player so no byes, not a keeper, relies on form change, not dual position
Gillett (+12 undervalued, scored 13) - Uncertain minutes to start the season, not a keeper at 2RF even at 50 points, Origin Player so no byes, not dual position,coming back from a serious injury
Bird (+14 undervalued, scored 13) - Relies on form change, not a keeper even at 35 points, not dual, doesn't play Bye 1. This is on the assumption he gets back to scoring like he did in 2016 (35 average, that I have valued him at) and 2017 (33 average) vs 2018 form (21 average).

Milchy wrote:
If Rhys Martin doesn't get named as a starter, then I will almost certainly run with Holland (who would presumably be goalkicker)

If Martin does start (or Holland is not guaranteed goal kicker for some other reason) then he'll still be under consideration, but is not a must-have

If Holland starts and kicks (no Martin), will he be a better choice than an 80 minute Capewell? Form from the back end of the year quite often does not translate to good scores the following year.
Bulldogs start with Warriors (A), Eels and Tigers (A) so not a bad opening draw.