2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 5

Cody Walker I'm guessing. Non-origin, 10 points under 50, plays first bye. I'm not seeing 50 points though.

MattNZ - how does your scoring system evaluate Mitchell Moses next to a rookie half?

Mulvy wrote:Cody Walker I'm guessing. Non-origin, 10 points under 50, plays first bye. I'm not seeing 50 points though.

Ash Taylor or Mitchell Moses would be better shots than Cody Walker. Had him last year and deadest would do nothing all game and then score a try in the last play and end up on 40 points. It was a hard watch.

Mulvy wrote:I had to look up Tarquin. Urban dictionary had some crackers!

My Favourite

Tarquins
Tarquin(s) is a name to describe any douchebag of middle or upper class origin.

Notable habits include use of unecessary vocabulary, and their pursual of women by pretending to be interested in poetry. They tend to buy fair trade and are often vegetarian.

Personally I think Tarquin is a cool name lol memorable af too

Also, love how much discussion @mattnz has brought to the table. Otherwise this place becomes an echo chamber.

@mattnz I'm picking Morgan on my bench. Although I like your system, I prioritise value. He won't be improving on his own form, he'll be returning to the form he has when JT wasn't playing. This is proven. At a conservative end, he'll earn $200k based off his scores playing without JT. It's essentially what happened with Maloney last year. Most didn't pick him because he's usually mud in fantasy, but I milked him for every penny.

I'm not saying your system is wrong, but perhaps some factors need to be re-weighted? I think I'll actually use yours but tweak the weighting because overall I think it's good.

Edit: now I'm at 669 posts maybe I should hang around until 6969 and then leave

Chewie wrote:How many keepers do you have in your team? What do you see as a good ration betweeen keepers and cows? @mattnz

I have deliberately targeted cheap keepers in the centers as part of my strategy so have 2 there, plus hooker (captain), 1 in 2nd row, (likely to end up with 2 at TLT), 2 in the halves (may drop that to 1), so a total of 6, which surprises me.

In addition have some guys that could become keepers if they play well, could stay there for the season, Murray (could be this years arrow) and Drinkwater (could be this years Ponga).

I have 6 < $250k guys to achieve this, so 2 of them are starting in my reserves. The rest of the side is what I see as significantly undervalued $400-600k players.

Targeted first round score if my assumed averages are correct of 870.

No Worries wrote:

My Favourite

Tarquins
Tarquin(s) is a name to describe any douchebag of middle or upper class origin.

Notable habits include use of unecessary vocabulary, and their pursual of women by pretending to be interested in poetry. They tend to buy fair trade and are often vegetarian.

Fascinating

Iron Mike wrote:

Ash Taylor or Mitchell Moses would be better shots than Cody Walker. Had him last year and deadest would do nothing all game and then score a try in the last play and end up on 40 points. It was a hard watch.

Actually Mitch Moses was who came to mind shortly after my last post.

I reckon Mitch Moses could score very well this season. But I won't be taking that risk.

mattnz wrote:

I'm not choosing between Holland and Capewell, they are my set and forget centers for the year (maybe add Bateman later if he does great).

Im picking Mitchel will be a must have at some point. Doubt Capewell and Holland will survive as set and forgets, but I do like the combo as a starting point. My issue is around the trade-offs having them both, vs a CC in place of one and money spent elsewhere.

mattnz wrote:

I have deliberately targeted cheap keepers in the centers as part of my strategy so have 2 there, plus hooker (captain), 1 in 2nd row, (likely to end up with 2 at TLT), 2 in the halves (may drop that to 1), so a total of 6, which surprises me.

In addition have some guys that could become keepers if they play well, could stay there for the season, Murray (could be this years arrow) and Drinkwater (could be this years Ponga).

I have 6 < $250k guys to achieve this, so 2 of them are starting in my reserves. The rest of the side is what I see as significantly undervalued $400-600k players.

Targeted first round score if my assumed averages are correct of 870.

Thanks mate! I've got 4 proven guns + Murray, Drinkwater, Capewell, and Edwards as potential keepers.

my tv broke wrote:I reckon Mitch Moses could score very well this season. But I won't be taking that risk.

I think Moses will post some monster scores this season. Will probably also post a bunch of sub20 rubbish.
If you get him, play for the average, not the individual round scores, and captain him at your own risk.

mattnz wrote:

I have deliberately targeted cheap keepers in the centers as part of my strategy so have 2 there, plus hooker (captain), 1 in 2nd row, (likely to end up with 2 at TLT), 2 in the halves (may drop that to 1), so a total of 6, which surprises me.

In addition have some guys that could become keepers if they play well, could stay there for the season, Murray (could be this years arrow) and Drinkwater (could be this years Ponga).

I have 6 < $250k guys to achieve this, so 2 of them are starting in my reserves. The rest of the side is what I see as significantly undervalued $400-600k players.

Targeted first round score if my assumed averages are correct of 870.

You think you're keeping, Capewell & Holland all season? I'm not saying they're bad picks, but the people whi win the competition are going to have Mitchell and whoever this year's boom centre is (last year it was Marsters) in their 17 for the last couple of months. I'd be surprised if that boom centre was Holland, and Capewell is only around until Graham gets back. Don't get me wrong, they're not bad picks (I have Capewell) but they're not going to save you trades.

Milchy wrote:

I think Moses will post some monster scores this season. Will probably also post a bunch of sub20 rubbish.
If you get him, play for the average, not the individual round scores, and captain him at your own risk.

I was about to post something like this. I expect expect his average will improve this year. Hard to guage by how much, just as likely to score a single digit score as a 90. Bit too risky for me. Did have a couple of injury affected games last year, should get the goal kicking duties again and will be dominant half and likely more kms. Could go great guns. Still plays for the Eels though.....

Getting back to that list of the biggest money makers over the first 6 rounds of last season, you have to go all the way to 27th on the list, to find a player who came off the bench in all six of those games. Tevita Tatola - he had made 113k at that point, at an average of 25 pts in 29 mins per game (his price peaked in round 9/10 at 384/387k).

Above him in the list, the only players who came off the bench in ANY of the first six rounds were Kikau (TBH, he was just a bloody anomoly), Hess (2 games, 55 and 57 mins), Murray (1 game, 28 mins), and Luke Bateman (2 games, 50 and 29 mins).

Conclusion? Bench players don't make alot of money.. will Haas be different? I think we should expect similar price rises to Tatola, although he may get a few more minutes.

There were 7 players that were sub 300k to start that feature above Tatola, in the early money making ranks at WFB or CTR last year.

my tv broke wrote:Getting back to that list of the biggest money makers over the first 6 rounds of last season, you have to go all the way to 27th on the list, to find a player who came off the bench in all six of those games. Tevita Tatola - he had made 113k at that point, at an average of 25 pts in 29 mins per game (his price peaked in round 9/10 at 384/387k).

Above him in the list, the only players who came off the bench in ANY of the first six rounds were Kikau (TBH, he was just a bloody anomoly), Hess (2 games, 55 and 57 mins), Murray (1 game, 28 mins), and Luke Bateman (2 games, 50 and 29 mins).

Conclusion? Bench players don't make alot of money.. will Haas be different? I think we should expect similar price rises to Tatola, although he may get a few more minutes.

There were 7 players that were sub 300k to start that feature above Tatola, in the early money making ranks at WFB or CTR last year.

You still need prop cover on your bench for withdrawls/suspensions etc and I don't see any 228k prop starters, so it's either spend more money and have a third prop you'd play in your 17 or go for a guy like Haas.

Centres: I think Ramien will be the highest scoring centre, or at least a more reliable one with a 30 floor. I'm not picking him because he'll be my goal, not start

Player pick: Cameron Munster

$667k, Priced at 45.5, 2018 average 44.8, 8.45% ownership

Kind of surprised at the high ownership as I expected him to be a POD pick (not going down that rabbit hole) but I've picked him up off gut feel and have now got the stats to at least comfort my nerves lol

In the 9 games he's played in 2017 and 2018 without Billy Slater, he's averaged 59.4 with only 1 game below 50 (22)

He's played 30 games with Billy Slater for an average of 41.09 with 11 of those games under 40 (36.7%)

2017 without Billy= 57.8
2018 without Billy= 61.5
- 5 games 5/8 = 65.8
- 4 games FB = 51.5

Even if he only averages 52, he's $100k underpriced

Edit: Yes, you can make any player look good if you can find the right stat  

my tv broke wrote:Getting back to that list of the biggest money makers over the first 6 rounds of last season, you have to go all the way to 27th on the list, to find a player who came off the bench in all six of those games. Tevita Tatola - he had made 113k at that point, at an average of 25 pts in 29 mins per game (his price peaked in round 9/10 at 384/387k).

Above him in the list, the only players who came off the bench in ANY of the first six rounds were Kikau (TBH, he was just a bloody anomoly), Hess (2 games, 55 and 57 mins), Murray (1 game, 28 mins), and Luke Bateman (2 games, 50 and 29 mins).

Conclusion? Bench players don't make alot of money.. will Haas be different? I think we should expect similar price rises to Tatola, although he may get a few more minutes.

There were 7 players that were sub 300k to start that feature above Tatola, in the early money making ranks at WFB or CTR last year.

that's a good observation. I'll be definitely aiming for players that take the field.

concerning Haas:

rhinoceroo wrote:

You still need prop cover on your bench for withdrawls/suspensions etc and I don't see any 228k prop starters, so it's either spend more money and have a third prop you'd play in your 17 or go for a guy like Haas.

Well, you could always run the risk early on, with the interest of maximising profit from cheapies. Cheap forwards tend to emerge mid season, last year there was Rhyse Martin, Jo Paulo, Jaydn S'ua, Scott Sorensen, and even Corey Jensen who made a bulk of cash pre origin, but weren't options at the start of the year. Admittedly only Jensen is a FRF of that lot (and from memory he was a bit of a slow burn that didn't really get much traction in ownership) but there is every chance a cheap FRF pops up as an option when there are injuries and suspensions.

I'll still have Haas as an NPR I'd say. With TPJ as my starting FRF, at least if he is out injured, then Haas will most likely benefit in terms of minutes.

Mulvy wrote:Cody Walker I'm guessing. Non-origin, 10 points under 50, plays first bye. I'm not seeing 50 points though.

Have had Walker to start the season the last few years. Great scorer when he is trying, crap when he isn't. The number of games the last 2 seasons where he had 40 at half time, then scored 5 in the 2nd half is enough to put you off him for life.