2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 5

my tv broke wrote:

You can analyse stats all you want, but you will also need a few gut feel picks like this to come off to get the edge on everyone else.

He was a gut feel to start and I've talked myself into him after analysis lol

@mattnz I'm picking Croft and Katoa to kill it. Hoping them burning everyone last year will keep them low ownership/make it harder for people to pick them up later

Croft: Surely first 5 games were because of a shit start to Storm/lack of confidence
Katoa: He does the Fifita style TB and will pick up some meat pies. Will need to work out how to view his stats onm the team planner to actually gauge his value

mattnz wrote:Can't believe I now have Croft and Katoa in my team, after the bitter disappointment last season with both of them. Feeling like Charlie Brown about to kick a football with Lucy holding it.

Croft has been playing first grade on and off for 2 and a half years now. His fantasy scores have been great, except for the first month of last year when everyone owned him.

He is tempting, but not sure I can pull the trigger, especially as there are lots of other halves who are also tempting.

Last year everyone wanted 5 hookers in their team. This year I think half and 2nd row is where most of the value is.

Mulvy wrote:

I agree there's some risk but if he's kicking goals it completely mitigates the risk in my view.

Yup, you are probably right.... out of interest, does anyone know how many points kickers get from goals on average? And for a more refined analysis, what would you expect Holland to score via goal kicking this year, should he get the kicking duties?

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Yup, you are probably right.... out of interest, does anyone know how many points kickers get from goals on average? And for a more refined analysis, what would you expect Holland to score via goal kicking this year, should he get the kicking duties?

We discussed a little while ago, Bulldogs kicked 3.3 goals per game last year.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Yup, you are probably right.... out of interest, does anyone know how many points kickers get from goals on average? And for a more refined analysis, what would you expect Holland to score via goal kicking this year, should he get the kicking duties?

Career avg @ Ctr 24 games (41pts) without goalkicking (37pts)
2018 avg @ Ctr 10 games (45pts) without goalkicking (44pts)

JDB court hearing this week. If he’s in trouble, I guess Leilua becomes a must have for everyone.

Cheers guys - all this talk on Holland makes me think @mattnz is gonna have to deduct a point off Hollands rating - he aint gonna be a POD for long bro lol

my tv broke wrote:

1333 goals kicked in 2018 across 192 games, which is 6.91 goals per game, ie 3.47 goals per team... so approximate average of 7 points per goalkicker, per game.

Of course, the above doesn't account for top teams verse bottom teams, and I'm not really sure how much of a difference that makes. Although Mitchell definitely saved a few scores last year with bulk goals.

Also gives an advantage to those who do all the goalkicking for their team. Sharks for example shared the kicking around a lot so it was hard to get a fantasy benefit from picking their kicker.
Cam Smith however will take pretty much every shot at goal for the storm so you can rely on his points.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

I guess my concern is whether or not he is a 40 point scorer? It's a pretty small sample size that we are working off from 2018 and there are some really big scores in there which boost his average. Are those sustainable? The kid does seem to have a game which suits fantasy, Im just having a bit of trouble believing that he will maintain a 40 point average. If I could, he would likely be in my team.

Average is 42 without his 5 tries and 7 goals... That's a 12 point increase on his price

Rippin and Tearin wrote:Cheers guys - all this talk on Holland makes me think @mattnz is gonna have to deduct a point off Hollands rating - he aint gonna be a POD for long bro lol

If 100 people from here pick him up, out of 100k players it moves him up 0.1% ownership

Sipi1994 wrote:JDB court hearing this week. If he’s in trouble, I guess Leilua becomes a must have for everyone.

Already have Leilua in my team.

So, what’s the cookie cutter team looking like at this stage lads and lasses?

mattnz wrote:

Already have Leilua in my team.

Same. That ownership will soar later this week if jdb cops a ban.

Sipi1994 wrote:

Same. That ownership will soar later this week if jdb cops a ban.

Won't kick him out of the team for that tho

I have not even started doing any analysis this year. Well behind the eight ball.
I have a basically autofilled team for now until TLT. (I feel like I say that every year though).

Great amount of discussion going on about players, teams, how the season is going to start, team-structure strategies, positional value. Love it.

Sipi1994 wrote:

Same. That ownership will soar later this week if jdb cops a ban.

I have a theory that ownership soaring for a POD is likely at most 2 x the number that had them before they were impacted by news. Current ownership is just 2%. He also burned lots of coaches last season that will have him on their never again list.

mattnz wrote:

I have a theory that ownership soaring for a POD is likely at most 2 x the number that had them before they were impacted by news.  Current ownership is just 2%. He also burned lots of coaches last season that will have him on their never again list.

A starting lock priced at 30, who will play big minutes. Showed good scores in big minutes last year. Good luck to anyone who doesn’t pick him.