2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 5

Were most of the Munster without Slater games where he wasn't at fullback during the origin period. Because against origin depleted teams with fringe first graders a player like Munster can carve?
Just didn't like his output at back end of last year.

mattnz wrote:
Croft without Slater, 2 games, scores of 70 and 60!

Croft is also in my team lol Not for the same reason as Munster.

Croft has to be going off his form from the end of last year. I'm betting the first 5 games were just the Storm as a side not gelling.

Munster has played 30 games with Slater, 9 without. The sample size sucks, but with Slater, 33.7% games less than 40, and without, only 1 game under 50... Granted his price is very awkward, but I'd rather risk he becomes a gun so I can spend $100k elsewhere.


My alternative is a Pearce Morgan combo.

Have you played any DFS MattNZ? If you're into game theory you'd probably enjoy it.

Iron Mike wrote:Were most of the Munster without Slater games where he wasn't at fullback during the origin period. Because against origin depleted teams with fringe first graders a player like Munster can carve?
Just didn't like his output at back end of last year.

Munster rounds without Slater:

2018:
1- 62 FB
12- 57 (origin affected)
14- 54
15- 73 (origin affected?)

2017: (bye weeks w12, w15, w19)
1- 22 FB
2- 60 FB
15- 62 FB (origin affected?)
16- 89
21- 56

Krump wrote:Have you played any DFS MattNZ? If you're into game theory you'd probably enjoy it.

Not familiar with it.

Boozecluez wrote:Late to the party with Holland haha
Was waiting to add him tonight to my player rundown in my thread but have fast tracked him given all his talk so is in there now
Decent option mainly for all his bench minutes dropping his price

40pt scorer which you are paying 30pts for, throw in goal kicking possibly as well.
Enough said

I guess my concern is whether or not he is a 40 point scorer? It's a pretty small sample size that we are working off from 2018 and there are some really big scores in there which boost his average. Are those sustainable? The kid does seem to have a game which suits fantasy, Im just having a bit of trouble believing that he will maintain a 40 point average. If I could, he would likely be in my team.

mattnz wrote:

Not familiar with it.

Have a look at draftstars or Moneyball. It's played over single games or a few games rather than a season which makes a lot of the things you've been talking about much more relevant to it. It's cash entry and prizes though they do have some free entry comps.

Munster has played 33 games @ hlf, avg 47pts (priced at 46pts)
Big enough sample size regardless of Slater to give you an idea how he may go.
Relies on attacking stats, (a third of his points come from this) with only around 100m kicking.

So priced on his average, are people buying him for more attacking stats, responsibility, storm going better?

Boozecluez wrote:Late to the party with Holland haha
Was waiting to add him tonight to my player rundown in my thread but have fast tracked him given all his talk so is in there now
Decent option mainly for all his bench minutes dropping his price

40pt scorer which you are paying 30pts for, throw in goal kicking possibly as well.
Enough said

Also he was gold in my first year 2016, bit of nostalgia there!

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

I guess my concern is whether or not he is a 40 point scorer? It's a pretty small sample size that we are working off from 2018 and there are some really big scores in there which boost his average. Are those sustainable? The kid does seem to have a game which suits fantasy, Im just having a bit of trouble believing that he will maintain a 40 point average. If I could, he would likely be in my team.

I agree there's some risk but if he's kicking goals it completely mitigates the risk in my view.

Holland 2018

Average starting Centre without games where he scored a try or kicked goals 38.6

Average starting Centre without points from tries or goals (54) average 42.55


Priced at 30, potential average of 38-42, min +$145k price rises

Rapture_NRL wrote:

Munster rounds without Slater:

2018:
1- 62 FB
12- 57 (origin affected)
14- 54
15- 73 (origin affected?)

2017: (bye weeks w12, w15, w19)
1- 22 FB
2- 60 FB
15- 62 FB (origin affected?)
16- 89
21- 56

Exactly my point, only times he was at half and it not be origin affected was near the end of the season of 2017 where they could have been playing against teams that have given up. As a half the guns get points from goalkicking, km, tackles and a combination of attack stats. Yes Munster is capable, but I would prefer Cleary. With or without Slater, he probably still goes under 50 average for the season.

Rapture_NRL wrote:Holland 2018

Average starting Centre without games where he scored a try of kicked goals 38.6

Average starting Centre without points from tries or goals (54) average 42.55


Priced at 30, potential average of 38-42, min +$145k price rises

Heard he has had off season surgeries on both ankles and hasn't returned to full training yet.

Boozecluez wrote:Munster has played 33 games @ hlf, avg 47pts (priced at 46pts)
Big enough sample size regardless of Slater to give you an idea how he may go.
Relies on attacking stats, (a third of his points come from this) with only around 100m kicking.

So priced on his average, are people buying him for more attacking stats, responsibility, storm going better?

I've broken down his scoring over the past two years. Yes he relies on attacking stats, and he attacks more without Slater. I'm not saying I'm totally sold, but 9 games without Slater and only 1 below 50? I'll take the risk early. I see him averaging 52 this year at least.

He's actually priced at 44.5, with a 2018 average of 44.8

His 2018 average without Slater was 61.5

If the selection comes off I'll be stoked. Not saying others should take the plunge but it's my analysis of it.

Rapture_NRL wrote:If the selection comes off I'll be stoked. Not saying others should take the plunge but it's my analysis of it.

You can analyse stats all you want, but you will also need a few gut feel picks like this to come off to get the edge on everyone else.

Iron Mike wrote:

Heard he has had off season surgeries on both ankles and hasn't returned to full training yet.

Useful info thanks, wasn't aware

Iron Mike wrote:

Heard he has had off season surgeries on both ankles and hasn't returned to full training yet.

That puts a damper on him. I just looked it up and found a mid Dec article saying he was looking to start running not long after Christmas. Not sure what that means.

Can't believe I now have Croft and Katoa in my team, after the bitter disappointment last season with both of them. Feeling like Charlie Brown about to kick a football with Lucy holding it.

my tv broke wrote:

You can analyse stats all you want, but you will also need a few gut feel picks like this to come off to get the edge on everyone else.

Fair point, I was just curious what Munster looked like on paper
He has potential to score higher given the type of player he is, but I don’t see him discounted or being a value pick like say a Morgan is.

Not a bad option for people wanting a solid option in the halves who has a ceiling.
I always preferred him at fullback anyways but this is his position now.
Will be interesting to see how he goes without slater and he is a gun regardless and borderline keeper.

Rapture_NRL wrote:


That puts a damper on him. I just looked it up and found a mid Dec article saying he was looking to start running not long after Christmas. Not sure what that means.

The injury update on Dogs site from Jan 11 (1 month ago) says that Holland started full training that week and did every session. So I doubt its a concern.