2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 5

Rapture_NRL wrote:

Arrow said he's fit and has given up the drink. He also admitted that he was exhausted from Origin and is working to hit the ground running this year. He's in my team and Captain

I've written a bit about Munster, but to summarise (over 2017 & 2018):
- 30 Games with Slater- 41.1 (11 less than 40)
- 9 Games without Slater- 59 (1 less than 50)
Of those
- 5 at 5/8- 62.8
- 4 at FB- 51.5
- Hughes played at FB in 2018 when Slater wasn't
- His only sub-50 score was 22 and first round of 2017 at FB

He relies on attacking stats which he gets more of without Slater. I'm picking him

Very good. Thanks heaps for that reply... especially the Munster stats. Makes me definitely feel more inclined to stick with him.

As for Arrow, the moment I swapped him out for Papalii I wanted him back in, so I think I'll move stuff back around to get him back in. I'll trust he's 100% fit again too.

Reckon Arrow outscores Papalii by a good 5-7 points without much extra effort, potentially 10+ points more

Thoughts on a few of these guys:

Aaron woods. Priced around 39. Full preseason with the Sharks, Ina pack needing big minute forwards (him Fifita prior and gal) historically used to average around 50 from memory. Worth it?

Mitchell Moses. No Norman, so has ownership of the team. Slightly improved team with Paulo and Ferguson this year and one playing alongside a rookie half so will get bulk KMs?

Josh Mansour. Playing on an edge with Cleary kikau and waqa, full preseason I think? Fully recovered after ACL. Avg 33 but from memory should be able to average 40 plus based on previous averages?

I'll suss out the stats of these guys tomorrow but keen to hear your thoughts on how you reckon they'll go this season?

Well my view is he is 2nx year into his NRL career. Should get regular 80min gig week in week out (don't know his av min for 2018) Anybody? Also playing outside NSW up and coming star of the NRL.

Also some 70K cheaper than the likes of Arrow. Who seems to be a highly sought after gun 2nd Row Forward.

Sipi1994 wrote:

Bargain? Why?

I guess in the end it will either be Matterson or Kikau for me.

Dttragic2016 wrote:Thoughts on a few of these guys:

Aaron woods. Priced around 39. Full preseason with the Sharks, Ina pack needing big minute forwards (him Fifita prior and gal) historically used to average around 50 from memory. Worth it?

Mitchell Moses. No Norman, so has ownership of the team. Slightly improved team with Paulo and Ferguson this year and one playing alongside a rookie half so will get bulk KMs?

Josh Mansour. Playing on an edge with Cleary kikau and waqa, full preseason I think? Fully recovered after ACL. Avg 33 but from memory should be able to average 40 plus based on previous averages?

I'll suss out the stats of these guys tomorrow but keen to hear your thoughts on how you reckon they'll go this season?

Haven't considered him but will look at Woods

Norman Averaged 200 kick metres, Moses 220

Mansour- I want him because I think he does well again this season. However, Dylan Edwards / DWZ like kick returns so Mansour loses TBs and metres

Who’s starting fullback for the storm Hughes or Drinkwater?

RTS comments on who's in the front for Warriors 7.. Doesn't sound clear cut

https://coupler.foxsports.com.au/api/v1/article/amp/nrl/nrl-premiership/teams/warriors/the-speedster-the-brains-and-the-freak-rts-picks-johnson-replacement/news-story/7cbb688fa446b094db115974646c9b5a

Didn't peachey just ball hog it so the sauce didn't get as much ball last year if I remember correctly

manlybeaver wrote:Didn't peachey just ball hog it so the sauce didn't get as much ball last year if I remember correctly

Or were the sauces big scores from playing with Moylan who used to dump all the runs backs off to him and Edwards running it back more affecting him?

Welshy wrote:

Or were the sauces big scores from playing with Moylan who used to dump all the runs backs off to him and Edwards running it back more affecting him?

It wouldn't be Edwards the sauce was injured most of the year when Edwards just came into the scene not positive about that any one have stats on how many games Edwards and the sauce have played together.

Moylan could see him adding 5 plus points a game in run metres

Dttragic2016 wrote:Thoughts on a few of these guys:

Aaron woods. Priced around 39. Full preseason with the Sharks, Ina pack needing big minute forwards (him Fifita prior and gal) historically used to average around 50 from memory. Worth it?

Mitchell Moses. No Norman, so has ownership of the team. Slightly improved team with Paulo and Ferguson this year and one playing alongside a rookie half so will get bulk KMs?

Josh Mansour. Playing on an edge with Cleary kikau and waqa, full preseason I think? Fully recovered after ACL. Avg 33 but from memory should be able to average 40 plus based on previous averages?

I'll suss out the stats of these guys tomorrow but keen to hear your thoughts on how you reckon they'll go this season?

We don't have a lot to go on form wise for now but they all fall in the same category of picks to me (trap). Low ceiling, low upside picks even if you are correct in the form/subjective analysis.  A.K.A. slow burning cows with respectable points per dollar spent. They won't be cut priced keepers and they wont generate the rapid early season cash to make your squad stronger.

I personally think the likely outcome of the small role change is that they will all fall somewhere between a 4-8 point improvement. You really want them to score 10+ above their current average for cash purposes but I also don't see any of them being top 5 options so the points/$ upside is limited.

Mitchell Moses (37.1 -> 47.1) - would be good for 9th best half of 2018
- Unless we see a marked defensive improvement he has too many negative plays to be in the top tier of halves. For fantasy that means his cash generation will be super volatile as well (low games quickly halt fast price rises). Yes his kick m will go up and he may have a few more TAs in a stronger team but an extra 230 points (23 rounds x 10pt increase) needs to double his try assists (10 -> 20) and kick an extra 156m/game (229 -> 385km). Not impossible but I'd take the under on that easily.

Aaron Woods (39 -> 49) - 5th best FRF '18
- Essentially banking on a return to career best form to have made the minimum cash you want from someone you wont keep. No upside and only risk in this pick. A poor mans Tolman, TPJ or Offa.

Josh Mansour (33 -> 43) - 6th best WFB '18
- The only guy who I could entertain having more than a 10+ point upside. But then I look at other prolific try scoring wingers like Addo-Car, Oates, Vunivalu, Cotric, Nofo and '18 Rapana and all of them fall well short of this average (39.2 - JAC). Are you willing to put him up with guys like Rapana of '16 and '17. The offense won't flow through Mansour (too many mouths to feed on what should be a good attack) so I think his upside is limited.

In my initial teams I want cut price keepers, someone on the top 30 cash makers list or a gun. These guys don't really fit any of those bills. So while I don't think anyone on this list will disappoint you I strongly believe they won't help you win. But then again I'm more H2H focused and never win so if you like these guys go nuts  

I do think these guys would make good draft picks though. Always a chance they are undervalued but not by enough in the classic format to pick for me.

Cap'n Ranta wrote:

We don't have a lot to go on form wise for now but they all fall in the same category of picks to me (trap). Low ceiling, low upside picks even if you are correct in the form/subjective analysis.  A.K.A. slow burning cows with respectable points per dollar spent. They won't be cut priced keepers and they wont generate the rapid early season cash to make your squad stronger.

I personally think the likely outcome of the small role change is that they will all fall somewhere between a 4-8 point improvement. You really want them to score 10+ above their current average for cash purposes but I also don't see any of them being top 5 options so the points/$ upside is limited.

Mitchell Moses (37.1 -> 47.1) - would be good for 9th best half of 2018
- Unless we see a marked defensive improvement he has too many negative plays to be in the top tier of halves. For fantasy that means his cash generation will be super volatile as well (low games quickly halt fast price rises). Yes his kick m will go up and he may have a few more TAs in a stronger team but an extra 230 points (23 rounds x 10pt increase) needs to double his try assists (10 -> 20) and kick an extra 156m/game (229 -> 385km). Not impossible but I'd take the under on that easily.

Aaron Woods (39 -> 49) - 5th best FRF '18
- Essentially banking on a return to career best form to have made the minimum cash you want from someone you wont keep. No upside and only risk in this pick. A poor mans Tolman, TPJ or Offa.

Josh Mansour (33 -> 43) - 6th best WFB '18
- The only guy who I could entertain having more than a 10+ point upside. But then I look at other prolific try scoring wingers like Addo-Car, Oates, Vunivalu, Cotric, Nofo and '18 Rapana and all of them fall well short of this average (39.2 - JAC). Are you willing to put him up with guys like Rapana of '16 and '17. The offense won't flow through Mansour (too many mouths to feed on what should be a good attack) so I think his upside is limited.

In my initial teams I want cut price keepers, someone on the top 30 cash makers list or a gun. These guys don't really fit any of those bills. So while I don't think anyone on this list will disappoint you I strongly believe they won't help you win. But then again I'm more H2H focused and never win so if you like these guys go nuts  

I do think these guys would make good draft picks though. Always a chance they are undervalued but not by enough in the classic format to pick for me.

Nice analysis. I agree Mansour the only one there worth considering. I'm backing Ivan to have the Panthers ready to come out swinging like the Tigers last year. I agree Mansour is unlikely to be elite in his position, but if indeed he is 7+ points unders that's value enough for me to consider him a keeper until rd 12 at least. And there's upside too, as he's put up some truly massive scores in the past.

I have Mansour, but the thing that concerns me is that he hit his high scores with a fullback that didn't take the line on as much as Edwards does. As such the kick return metres from Mansauce will be more shared with Edwarda I believe. Priced well enough for me to take a punt on him though.

Just caught up on all the pod, undervalued players discussion, and there are a couple of players I think could potentially fit in that category.
Elliot Whitehead - from memory played a few games at ctr? Should be guaranteed 80 mins, could possibly spend some more time at lock, plays the first bye. The introduction of bateman should stop Whitehead having to shift out to ctr if there is an injury. Im assuming Bateman would be the one to shift.

Also I think B Smith is cheap enough this season to consider. Likely to be used as an impact middle forward as well as spelling Cam Smith if he gets an early rest. I just think B Smith will get more minutes this year and if Cam Smith happens to miss any early games through injury you've got an 80 hooker in your squad ready to go.

Finger Puppet Mafia wrote:I have Mansour, but the thing that concerns me is that he hit his high scores with a fullback that didn't take the line on as much as Edwards does. As such the kick return metres from Mansauce will be more shared with Edwarda I believe. Priced well enough for me to take a punt on him though.

Just a point about Mansour, as I've seen a few people discuss him now. When he was elite gun status, he accrued most of his points from 1st and 2nd tackle runs from his own line, using his incredible strength and low centre of gravity to push blokes off and create havoc, as well as the odd offload. Hence why he made the origin side where 1st and 2nd tackle escaping the pressure cooker is so important. A very low proportion of his scoring was from kick return metres.

Mansour is value this year if you think he can put a year or two injury affected seasons behind him. If he can rebuild that strength he had and maintain consistency through the year, he's a good pick and potentially a season keeper, although hard to see him outscoring Tedesco, Ponga & Trbojevic.

Cap'n Ranta wrote:

We don't have a lot to go on form wise for now but they all fall in the same category of picks to me (trap). Low ceiling, low upside picks even if you are correct in the form/subjective analysis.  A.K.A. slow burning cows with respectable points per dollar spent. They won't be cut priced keepers and they wont generate the rapid early season cash to make your squad stronger.

I personally think the likely outcome of the small role change is that they will all fall somewhere between a 4-8 point improvement. You really want them to score 10+ above their current average for cash purposes but I also don't see any of them being top 5 options so the points/$ upside is limited.

Mitchell Moses (37.1 -> 47.1) - would be good for 9th best half of 2018
- Unless we see a marked defensive improvement he has too many negative plays to be in the top tier of halves. For fantasy that means his cash generation will be super volatile as well (low games quickly halt fast price rises). Yes his kick m will go up and he may have a few more TAs in a stronger team but an extra 230 points (23 rounds x 10pt increase) needs to double his try assists (10 -> 20) and kick an extra 156m/game (229 -> 385km). Not impossible but I'd take the under on that easily.

Aaron Woods (39 -> 49) - 5th best FRF '18
- Essentially banking on a return to career best form to have made the minimum cash you want from someone you wont keep. No upside and only risk in this pick. A poor mans Tolman, TPJ or Offa.

Josh Mansour (33 -> 43) - 6th best WFB '18
- The only guy who I could entertain having more than a 10+ point upside. But then I look at other prolific try scoring wingers like Addo-Car, Oates, Vunivalu, Cotric, Nofo and '18 Rapana and all of them fall well short of this average (39.2 - JAC). Are you willing to put him up with guys like Rapana of '16 and '17. The offense won't flow through Mansour (too many mouths to feed on what should be a good attack) so I think his upside is limited.

In my initial teams I want cut price keepers, someone on the top 30 cash makers list or a gun. These guys don't really fit any of those bills. So while I don't think anyone on this list will disappoint you I strongly believe they won't help you win. But then again I'm more H2H focused and never win so if you like these guys go nuts  

I do think these guys would make good draft picks though. Always a chance they are undervalued but not by enough in the classic format to pick for me.

Great thoughts, agree with you.

Masnour has seemed like a good buy for the last 3 years. He is like hodges, great when good, not always good, and always injured.

I tend to steer clear of wingers unless they are close to base price and have some size about them. Fullbacks>Centres>Wingers in terms of scoring potential.

That's why I am more inclined to spend a bit more money on Watson, Drinkwater, Edwards types than go with someone like Mansour or Cotric.