2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 5

Iron Mike wrote:I tend to steer clear of wingers unless they are close to base price and have some size about them. Fullbacks>Centres>Wingers in terms of scoring potential.

That's why I am more inclined to spend a bit more money on Watson, Drinkwater, Edwards types than go with someone like Mansour or Cotric.

Definitely agree with this.
I keep going to edit my team but feels pointless with so many unknowns.

Aaron Woods dropped his minutes and fantasy average slightly after joining the Sharks, and went from starter to bench player.
If you think he'll become a starter there is some value there - but I don't think he'll regain the heights he hit at the Tigers where he had to do everything himself at times.

Who do people see as must haves other than the chosen guns?

In terms of what I know right now I think:

Stimson (starting back rower priced at 28)
Capewell (starting back rower priced at 30 at centre - should be nailed on for an average of 40)
Murray (starting lock priced at 40)
Morgan?

Near Base price cash cows? Team lists will determine others for me.

Lomax
Nikora
Burr
Egan
Mahoney
A Keighran (should be goalkicker if picked)
Haas

Others on watchlist depending team list:
Tevaga
Papali'i
S Lane
DFifita

Others on watchlist priced around 40 with potential to hit 50s:
A Taylor
Leeson Ah Mau
J Off
TPJ
Twal
Watson
Drinkwater
Edwards

Happy to discuss any of the above players!

Iron Mike wrote:I tend to steer clear of wingers unless they are close to base price and have some size about them. Fullbacks>Centres>Wingers in terms of scoring potential.

That's why I am more inclined to spend a bit more money on Watson, Drinkwater, Edwards types than go with someone like Mansour or Cotric.

This is purely anecdotal but I rate wingers much higher in terms of potential than centres. Centres may get a few more tackles but usually get less touches, less tries and less kick returns with a broken line to run at.

my tv broke wrote:Broncos have named their team for this weekends trial, and it is all reserve graders/fringe players/rookies  as expected, although Payne Haas is named to start. It also features a couple of guys like mago and carrigan who may push for a bench position.

Think most teams will do this. Sounds like raiders are:


The Raiders will use the trial as an opportunity for younger players on development and train-and-trial contracts to press their case for selection. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Ryan Sutton could get a run, but fellow English recruit John Bateman won’t take the field. A squad of about 22 players will travel to Sydney for the trial. A full squad will play at Bega against the Canterbury Bulldogs.

Read more: https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport ... 30c375fb36

Guh, link mucked up, if I get round to it I'll try fix it when I get back to the comp, otherwise its from the tele.

Iron Mike wrote:I tend to steer clear of wingers unless they are close to base price and have some size about them. Fullbacks>Centres>Wingers in terms of scoring potential.

That's why I am more inclined to spend a bit more money on Watson, Drinkwater, Edwards types than go with someone like Mansour or Cotric.

Seems like too general of a rule to me. I'll take a Rapa over a Coote everyday of the week and thrice on Sunday.

People have been comparing Munster with/without Slater

Munster at 6 with Croft at 7 - averaged 38.5 (6 games)
Munster at 6 without Croft - averaged 46.2 (14 games)

Archer wrote:
Seems like too general of a rule to me. I'll take a Rapa over a Coote everyday of the week and thrice on Sunday.

Bang on. Position is obviously a big factor, but the individual player is more important than the position they play.

Its like picking someone because they are a 'starting lock' or '80 minute back rower'. It didn't make Issac Liu or Ryan Hoffman value picks and won't necessarily mean good things for others.
Its why I am wary on someone like say Lachlan Burr if he does start at 13 for the Warriors. he's so cheap that you'd pretty much have him anyway, but I would not be filled with confidence.

Iron Mike wrote:I tend to steer clear of wingers unless they are close to base price and have some size about them. Fullbacks>Centres>Wingers in terms of scoring potential.

That's why I am more inclined to spend a bit more money on Watson, Drinkwater, Edwards types than go with someone like Mansour or Cotric.

What I meant was that at fullback/winger position 4 of the top 5 guys from last year are fullbacks. General rule of thumb is that fullbacks will get more opportunity to score better than wingers.
If you are taking a winger make sure they are big, busy and break tackles e.g Ferguson, Rapana, Cotric, Mansour.

I still think there is far greater value in Watson, Drinkwater, Brimson, Edwards than choosing a winger and hoping they go on a run of scoring tries. At least at fullback they have the opportunity to get involved both sides of the field.

Iron Mike wrote:I tend to steer clear of wingers unless they are close to base price and have some size about them. Fullbacks>Centres>Wingers in terms of scoring potential.

That's why I am more inclined to spend a bit more money on Watson, Drinkwater, Edwards types than go with someone like Mansour or Cotric.

I’ve always done the same and it seems last year was a great year to do so. Only one winger in the entire comp averaged over 40 last season, I can’t see anything changing this season either. Too many guns at fullback to pick a winger.

JDB plead not guilty and case adjourned until April 19th. Conditions of his bail have allowed him to travel interstate for NRL games.

my tv broke wrote:JDB plead not guilty and case adjourned until April 19th. Conditions of his bail have allowed him to travel interstate for NRL games.

Got a feeling this will be dragged out till next off season. No Leilua.

Milchy wrote:
People have been comparing Munster with/without Slater

Munster at 6 with Croft at 7 - averaged 38.5 (6 games)
Munster at 6 without Croft  - averaged 46.2 (14 games)

3 games with Croft, and without Slater - average 71


But like I said in my original post about it, you can make any stat work


on games on Thursdays, less than 10,000 people in the crowd, and temperature between 18 and 20, average 1,000,000

Iron Mike wrote:

What I meant was that at fullback/winger position 4 of the top 5 guys from last year are fullbacks. General rule of thumb is that fullbacks will get more opportunity to score better than wingers.
If you are taking a winger make sure they are big, busy and break tackles e.g Ferguson, Rapana, Cotric, Mansour.

I still think there is far greater value in Watson, Drinkwater, Brimson, Edwards than choosing a winger and hoping they go on a run of scoring tries. At least at fullback they have the opportunity to get involved both sides of the field.

Would you consider Katoa or CNK (if starting FB)?

Have just updated my fantasy solver for 2019 season

Link here - https://www.mediafire.com/file/j37skyoa8aftxvx/2019_Fantasy_Solver_v1.xlsm/file

Requires having the solver plug-in for excel.
Simply update the projected score to what you think that player will average in 2019 (projection defaults to 2018 average) and generate a team.

18-21 emergency players defaults to 4 * $228k rookies, you can make that higher or lower based on what you think you'll spend there.

If you get your projections right (which is a big if) then it will give you the most efficient starting 17 (maximising points) Have fun playing with the projections and seeing what team it spits out.

It only checks the top 200 players for it calculations (excel solver tool can't handle more than that) so to get some of the rookies etc considered you may have to project some players at 0 points and re-sort the file based on projections.

If you run the solver as is, it should generate this team, and project 717 points a week (doesn't cater for double point captain) I'm pretty sure you can come up with a better option than this

Matt Gillett 2RF
Curtis Sironen 2RF
Robert Jennings CTR
Gehamat Shibasaki CTR
Paul Momirovski CTR
Leeson Ah Mau FRF
Alex Twal FRF
Tim Grant FRF
Sean O'Sullivan HLF
Scott Drinkwater HLF
Jarome Luai HLF
Josh Reynolds HLF
Michael Lichaa HOK
Danny Levi HOK
Caleb Aekins WFB
Tom Trbojevic WFB
Gideon Gela-Mosby WFB

Rapture_NRL wrote:

Would you consider Katoa or CNK (if starting FB)?

No Katoa doesn't have the skills to play fullback, CNK is priced at 27 and realistically wouldn't go any better than Wighton who averaged 34 for an increase of 7 points max so given he is a midranger it's a no from me.
When comparing CNK to similar priced guys like M Morgan, Capewell, Stimson who should all average around 40 or more then I'd rather go base price, gun like Teddy or take a shot on Edwards, Drinkwater, Brimson or Watson.
Leaning towards three from the four players from Teddy, Edwards, Watson and Drinkwater to fill the fullback spot.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

RNGD Analytics wrote:

Ha. We probably know each other or something.

It is pretty easy. The key thing I'd understanding the decision variables and then how to weight them. That was my main obstacle - how important is a factor like byes.

Classic - have PM'd you mate. Will catch up for coffee whenever u have the time.

So you guys do actually know each other?

Archer wrote:
Seems like too general of a rule to me. I'll take a Rapa over a Coote everyday of the week and thrice on Sunday.

Cowboys never played many Sunday games anyway.

Iron Mike wrote:

No Katoa doesn't have the skills to play fullback, CNK is priced at 27 and realistically wouldn't go any better than Wighton who averaged 34 for an increase of 7 points max so given he is a midranger it's a no from me.
When comparing CNK to similar priced guys like M Morgan, Capewell, Stimson who should all average around 40 or more then I'd rather go base price, gun like Teddy or take a shot on Edwards, Drinkwater, Brimson or Watson.
Leaning towards three from the four players from Teddy, Edwards, Watson and Drinkwater to fill the fullback spot.

Sorry I meant Katoa in general. He's priced at 25. He has a Fifita style TB so 35 is reasonable to expect.

CNK is priced at 25.9 and played on the wing, not very busy. Comparing Wighton to CNK isn't fair because they're different players. But more work at FB could see a reasonable 35 which is all you'd need to milk him for.

FRF is the position giving me the most grief at the moment.

I really want Fifita as a set and forget option, but it really kills the salary cap elsewhere. Its hard trying to find good value.
If NRL doesn't suspend Napa, might end up running Tolman+Napa (ideally with Fifita, possibly with someone like TPJ or Surgess)
I have doubts around the hoe people have around Twal being starting lock, but that woul dmake things easy. Maybe trials/TLT will throw up a good option.