2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 5

Hurry up weekend!

FFS, the GF's birthday falls on the Saturday of Round 1. I hope she is excited about spending it watching Super Saturday on Foxsports.

CubanMafiaSandSlugs wrote:How are we all? I've missed this forum, and you all. Took a year or so off. Good to be back.

Is my old mate @Mearcats still around? What about @Welshy and @SI? The good old days.

Good to see the great Milchy still running things and guiding this forum with his wisdom.

Looking forward to an entertaining 2019 of footy!

Pregnant!!!

Was happy to see you posting again a few days Cuban 

my tv broke wrote:FFS, the GF's birthday falls on the Saturday of Round 1. I hope she is excited about spending it watching Super Saturday on Foxsports.

If not, you know what needs to be done.

Milchy wrote:
FRF is the position giving me the most grief at the moment.

I really want Fifita as a set and forget option, but it really kills the salary cap elsewhere. Its hard trying to find good value.
If NRL doesn't suspend Napa, might end up running Tolman+Napa (ideally with Fifita, possibly with someone like TPJ or Surgess)
I have doubts around the hoe people have around Twal being starting lock, but that woul dmake things easy. Maybe trials/TLT will throw up a good option.

Anyone interested in Glasby? At 480k he's cheapish, and if starting lock he'll get decent minutes. 2018 average of 45 mins plus is 40, so could fill an annoying gap and generate 100k.

L-Jimmy wrote:

Anyone interested in Glasby? At 480k he's cheapish, and if starting lock he'll get decent minutes. 2018 average of 45 mins plus is 40, so could fill an annoying gap and generate 100k.

I would need to hear some confirmation he will actually get the bigger minutes before taking the risk. Too many forwards at the Knights, and Klemmer could be the one to play the big mins in the middle, despite the numbers on their backs. Glasby doesn't really appeal to me though, because he's not going to pick up many points outside of tackles and run metres.

Dttragic2016 wrote:Loving the discussion @mattnz has brought to the table. I like the general point you're making but I think it's always hard for people to digest a purely data driven approach (or one with definitive factors such as yours). Side note - I recruit in data analytics and hearing stories of line managers struggling to cope with data insights is hilarious.

Something I thought of. When did the NRL Fantasy forums on sportal begin? I remember I first came on sportal with the username Ragz or something along those lines to troll people on the GPS cricket thread..and came across the NRL Fantasy pages around 2010 from memory!

Good question.

Not sure when the 1st Fantasy thread started, but someone else might. I think ST started officially doing them around 2009, but may have been something earlier than that.

Filth or Revs might remember. I know Revs was a forum member since 2005, Filth/QS/bluetige/Krump/Honeysett/OSM/No Worries/Rabbit were on there for quite a few years before me so they might remember? Apologies to the other Veterans I’ve missed, there will be a few with my memory.

SI wrote:
So you guys do actually know each other?

Nope. But we will soon. Work at the same place.

SI wrote:
If not, you know what needs to be done.

I'm still warming to Leeson Ah Mau to be the Warriors leader:

http://renegadesfs.com/index.php/nrl-fantasy/item/1974-player-of-interest-leeson-ah-mau

I think priced at $600K should be good for 45 minutes and 45 points pushing more towards 50 with some attacking stats.

Picked Vaughan 2017 and Alvaro 2018 and Leeson Ah Mau fits the bill for me re extra minutes, new role, hopefully starting (should improve on the 39 mins where he was competing with guys like Mike Cooper, JDB, Vaughan, Graham, etc).

Again in games where he played over 40 minutes (8 games - but I have excluded round 24 where he played 56 minutes for 91 points - 54 tackles and 7 Tackle Breaks) he scored 337 points in 336 minutes across 7 games for an average of 48 points from 48 minutes. Now this is not unrealistic I feel and has the potential to pick up more work without JDB, Graham, Vaughan etc.

SI wrote:
Pregnant!!!

Was happy to see you posting again a few days Cuban 

Onya SI. The most humble member on here. How's the team planning going?

SI wrote:
So you guys do actually know each other?

No, but NZ is a small place so we may well turn out to be related, or, at the very least we'll have one or two sheep in common

We work at the same place it turns out so are gonna catch up soon.

my tv broke wrote:FFS, the GF's birthday falls on the Saturday of Round 1. I hope she is excited about spending it watching Super Saturday on Foxsports.

As her birthday present you should gift her the privilege of washing & bathing your feet as you watch the footy .
#donotdothisifyoustillwantagf

Iron Mike wrote:I'm still warming to Leeson Ah Mau to be the Warriors leader:

http://renegadesfs.com/index.php/nrl-fantasy/item/1974-player-of-interest-leeson-ah-mau

I think priced at $600K should be good for 45 minutes and 45 points pushing more towards 50 with some attacking stats.

Picked Vaughan 2017 and Alvaro 2018 and Leeson Ah Mau fits the bill for me re extra minutes, new role, hopefully starting (should improve on the 39 mins where he was competing with guys like Mike Cooper, JDB, Vaughan, Graham, etc).

Again in games where he played over 40 minutes (8 games - but I have excluded round 24 where he played 56 minutes for 91 points - 54 tackles and 7 Tackle Breaks) he scored 337 points in 336 minutes across 7 games for an average of 48 points from 48 minutes. Now this is not unrealistic I feel and has the potential to pick up more work without JDB, Graham, Vaughan etc.

I like LAM. He's currently sitting in my FRF snuggled up next to Tolman. Although I will hastily ditch him if the Twal situation works out favourably.

I have CNK in my team atm but only because he has potential to score pretty well at f/b with the Raiders having a nice early draw which hopefully means more attacking opportunities. I owned him when he averaged 27 on the wing for the Warriors & he was very safe under the high ball & had a very low error rate so his hands are very good. These skills translate to f/b & I think he played f/b in the younger grades & excelled so it's not a position that is foreign to him. I think he'll consistently score in the 30's because he won't amass many negatives due to his low error rate but will get the odd 40+ score with attacking extra's.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

No, but NZ is a small place so we may well turn out to be related, or, at the very least we'll have one or two sheep in common

We work at the same place it turns out so are gonna catch up soon.

Must be a cool place to work and highly analytical jobs as both of you finished in the top 40

Didn't Junior Paulo go on a run a couple of years ago where he was fantasy relevant? Looking a him, priced around 33 but averaged 40 in games over 40 minutes (around half of them) while Ricky fucked around with the Raiders pack. Maybe some value there but, as said, FRF a headache with nobody except maybe Napa looking 10 points underpriced.

RNGD Analytics wrote:

Nope. But we will soon. Work at the same place.

As we've all realised the frf category is a nightmare to try & get 3 viable picks but there will be a couple a short-term picks that are pretty cheap if you don't mind wasting a trade because these guys will go back to the bench after the nailed players return from suspension:
(1) Gurgess - suspended first 3 games - L. Knight, Tatola
(2) K. Sims - suspended first 2 games - Lawrie

Iron Mike wrote:I'm still warming to Leeson Ah Mau to be the Warriors leader:

http://renegadesfs.com/index.php/nrl-fantasy/item/1974-player-of-interest-leeson-ah-mau

I think priced at $600K should be good for 45 minutes and 45 points pushing more towards 50 with some attacking stats.

Picked Vaughan 2017 and Alvaro 2018 and Leeson Ah Mau fits the bill for me re extra minutes, new role, hopefully starting (should improve on the 39 mins where he was competing with guys like Mike Cooper, JDB, Vaughan, Graham, etc).

Again in games where he played over 40 minutes (8 games - but I have excluded round 24 where he played 56 minutes for 91 points - 54 tackles and 7 Tackle Breaks) he scored 337 points in 336 minutes across 7 games for an average of 48 points from 48 minutes. Now this is not unrealistic I feel and has the potential to pick up more work without JDB, Graham, Vaughan etc.

He's got all the stats and he'll be the main prop at the Warriors. However, I just quickly looked up average minutes from last year for Warriors forwards (a bit inaccurate and also doesn't account for who each person is sharing minutes with or lineup):

Harris 80
Papali'i 70
Afoa 35
Blair 60 (Primarily at Lock which I hope he isn't this year)
Tevaga 55
Pulu 40
Paasi 40
Lisone 30

Then throw in Burr and LAM...

Harris and Papli'i likely no change and should be selected, spelled by Pulu

Afoa, Paasi, Blair (50min) prop rotation- only 35 minutes for LAM (give or take from the other 3)

Burr starting Lock 30, spelled by Tevaga 50

Likely play with a utility too as they did to close out the season.

Whilst the Warriors aren't known for having the best forward pack, they do have a lot of players playing first grade. Best case scenario, Blair does a 40min stint, 20 either side of the half, Afoa maintains 35, Paasi reduces to 35, leaving 50 for LAM...