NRL Fantasy 2019 thread part 8

mattnz wrote:

Much of my team is sub-gun PODs, but have been adding a few genuine guns recently that should be undervalued to start the season, like Taupau, Arrow.

Well I have to say I like it, because that's what I would do.

mattnz wrote:

you wouldn't be incorrect

BE of 41, I'd like to here what you think he'll average? Eels backrowers didn't score many tries last year because they were very average. Also a team that doesn't hit up their edges as often as Manly spells trouble for me

Alfie wrote:

BE of 41, I'd like to here what you think he'll average? Eels backrowers didn't score many tries last year because they were very average. Also a team that doesn't hit up their edges as often as Manly spells trouble for me

If he gets 80 minutes most weeks, should be scoring 40-70 each week. Makes him safe with upside maybe 50-55 average.

mattnz wrote:

you wouldn't be incorrect

I've said before, I really liked owning Lane last year. Could go really well at Eels. A lot of unknowns though, but one of your less risky suggestions imo. Could totally gun it. Did score a lot of tries with Manly though, and will he keep it up at the Eels?

Alfie wrote:

Love the breakdown but once TPJ comes back, either Fifita or Glenn will go to the bench and play in the middle. Gillett will eventually play 80 if not straight away as will Glenn and quite possibly Fifita if he gets the nod over Glenn and starts strongly

That's a possibility but I doubt Glenn or Fifita will play bench middle, they're both edge specialists. I reckon Glenn will be the bench edge forward and will spell Fifi and Gillett, with Gillett potentially moving to the middle for a bit. Even if Gillett does play a bit of middle, I think that would be eating into TPJ's minutes, not Ofa's. The other Broncos middle options don't really play massive minutes, and I think Ofa is the only one who really does (except Gillett but I doubt he'd be playing big minutes at lock, he's an edge forward too).

In short there's 4 edge forwards going for 3 spots, really 5 since TPJ is more of an edge player anyway but is moving to the middle because of the lack of experienced middle depth, and I doubt Seibold will put all of them in since he wants 2 bench middles and seems unafraid to bring in the youngsters (in this case it will be Carrigan, Flegler and Haas once he's back) or experienced oldies who don't get many minutes anyway (Tagataese and Fensom)

mattnz wrote:

Much of my team is sub-gun PODs, but have been adding a few genuine guns recently that should be undervalued to start the season, like Taupau, Arrow.

Also, how much do you think Taupau is undervalued by? I have him and I know he didn't score many tries but that was his best season by far

Alfie wrote:

Also, how much do you think Taupau is undervalued by? I have him and I know he didn't score many tries but that was his best season by far

Idk exactly how much but Manly have basically no forward depth and just lost Tanginoa and Paseka to knee injuries, surely that means Taupau gets huge minutes?

Alfie wrote:

Also, how much do you think Taupau is undervalued by? I have him and I know he didn't score many tries but that was his best season by far

He scored 0 tries last season,so any tries are upside this season.

Only added him after the trial, where forwards were getting injured, Taupau looks to have trimmed down, fit and fast. Expect him to play big minutes with all their injuries and lack of depth. Plan to captain him the first few rounds. Plays round 12, is a must by then anyway, and could be much more expensive by then.

Bethany_B wrote:

That's a possibility but I doubt Glenn or Fifita will play bench middle, they're both edge specialists. I reckon Glenn will be the bench edge forward and will spell Fifi and Gillett, with Gillett potentially moving to the middle for a bit. Even if Gillett does play a bit of middle, I think that would be eating into TPJ's minutes, not Ofa's. The other Broncos middle options don't really play massive minutes, and I think Ofa is the only one who really does (except Gillett but I doubt he'd be playing big minutes at lock, he's an edge forward too).

In short there's 4 edge forwards going for 3 spots, really 5 since TPJ is more of an edge player anyway but is moving to the middle because of the lack of experienced middle depth, and I doubt Seibold will put all of them in since he wants 2 bench middles and seems unafraid to bring in the youngsters (in this case it will be Carrigan, Flegler and Haas once he's back) or experienced oldies who don't get many minutes anyway (Tagataese and Fensom)

That's not how the Broncos usually used Glenn. He'd generally play 40 in the middle and cover 11 and 12 if they got injured. You could argue that new coach, new tactics but its uncommon that bench players that cover the edges only spell the incumbent edge players and not play minutes in the middle. Bukuya, Buhrer, KBrom, Lane (to begin the year) and Aubo fitted this bill last year

mattnz wrote:

He scored 0 tries last season,so any tries are upside this season.

Only added him after the trial, where forwards were getting injured, Taupau looks to have trimmed down, fit and fast. Expect him to play big minutes with all their injuries and lack of depth. Plan to captain him the first few rounds. Plays round 12, is a must by then anyway, and could be much more expensive by then.

Sorry, don't know why I said many tries when I knew he had a nudey run (Manly fan). How much upside though in terms of points above his BE of 57?

Alfie wrote:

Mulvy wrote:

I won't be saying that, because horrocious isn't a word. I mean seriously, that's just rambuctious!

I wonder if SI intentionally made this a portmanteau of 'horrendous' and 'attrocious'? Probably just a few beers down I assume

I plugged 'portmanteau' into my Netscape Navigator browser. After asking me to update my current version of Windows 95, it came up with 'Kimmorleyism".

In this specific instance, when a player makes a tackle that is so ineffective that it is just as horrendous as it is atrocious, it becomes horrocious, a phrase championed by the linguistic genius that is Brett Kimmorley.

Alfie wrote:

Sorry, don't know why I said many tries when I knew he had a nudey run (Manly fan). How much upside though in terms of points above his BE of 57?

Will be somewhere in the 60s I expect, hard to know exactly where, but start of season with injuries, banking on averaging high 60s for that period.

Most people will be running either Fifita or Tapua and in some cases both apparently. Who is the better of the 2 especially in the first few rounds when you need a captain

Alfie wrote:

That's not how the Broncos usually used Glenn. He'd generally play 40 in the middle and cover 11 and 12 if they got injured. You could argue that new coach, new tactics but its uncommon that bench players that cover the edges only spell the incumbent edge players and not play minutes in the middle. Bukuya, Buhrer, KBrom, Lane (to begin the year) and Aubo fitted this bill last year

Even with that, I still think Ofa will get enough minutes.

Let's say that the team looks like this:

8. Lodge
9. Macca
10. Ofa
11. Fifita
12. Gillett
13. TPJ
14. Staggs
15. Glenn
16. Su'A
17. Flegler/Carrigan

If Glenn plays 40 in the middle, with Lodge and TPJ getting 50 and 55 each respectively, that leaves 95 minutes left between Ofa and the last bench FRF That last guy would have to get 35 minutes or more to make Ofa play under 60 minutes, and if that happens, then that last guy becomes a Fantasy prospect. AFAIK Su'A never plays in the middle and is exclusively an edge player.

mattnz wrote:

Will be somewhere in the 60s I expect, hard to know exactly where, but start of season with injuries, banking on averaging high 60s for that period.

Crikey. Anyone know if anyone but Fifita has ever averaged above 60 as an FRF for a season? Seems highly unlikely, care to place a wager on it?

SI wrote:

I plugged 'portmanteau' into my Netscape Navigator browser.  After asking me to update my current version of Windows 95, it came up with 'Kimmorleyism".  

In this specific instance, when a player makes a tackle that is so ineffective that it is just as horrendous as it is atrocious, it becomes horrocious, a phrase championed by the linguistic genius that is Brett Kimmorley.

Hang on, is that where horrocious really came from? In that case I love it! Not to use it would be diabolical!

Edit: Does someone have the clip?

Bethany_B wrote:

Even with that, I still think Ofa will get enough minutes.

Let's say that the team looks like this:

8. Lodge
9. Macca
10. Ofa
11. Fifita
12. Gillett
13. TPJ
14. Staggs
15. Glenn
16. Su'A
17. Flegler/Carrigan

If Glenn plays 40 in the middle, with Lodge and TPJ getting 50 and 55 each respectively, that leaves 95 minutes left between Ofa and the last bench FRF That last guy would have to get 35 minutes or more to make Ofa play under 60 minutes, and if that happens, then that last guy becomes a Fantasy prospect. AFAIK Su'A never plays in the middle and is exclusively an edge player.

I don't think they'll have Su'a and Glenn on the bench, my prediction:

8. Lodge 50
9. Macca 80
10. Ofa 50
11. Fifita 65
12. Gillett 80
13. TPJ 55
14. Glenn 40
15. Flegler 30
16. Fensom 30
17. Staggs 0

Alfie wrote:

Crikey. Anyone know if anyone but Fifita has ever averaged above 60 as an FRF for a season? Seems highly unlikely, care to place a wager on it?

Actually yes. Prior to 2018 and 2017 Fifita averaged over 60 for the previous four years. These are the fallen guns Welshy loves and hitherto mattnz loathes. I think? Both make good points.

Mulvy wrote:

SI wrote:

I plugged 'portmanteau' into my Netscape Navigator browser.  After asking me to update my current version of Windows 95, it came up with 'Kimmorleyism".  

In this specific instance, when a player makes a tackle that is so ineffective that it is just as horrendous as it is atrocious, it becomes horrocious, a phrase championed by the linguistic genius that is Brett Kimmorley.

Hang on, is that where horrocious really came from? In that case I love it! Not to use it would be diabolical!

Indeed mate  He literally said 'horrocious' live on a Fox coverage.  He also invented the word 'stampling' whilst describing a Second Rower running over a Centre (can't remember who they were now) in live commentary.  He was trying to say both stomped on and trampled over at the same time, which kimmorleyed in to 'stampled'  

I'm sure someone here still has a screenshot  

mattnz wrote:

He scored 0 tries last season,so any tries are upside this season.

Only added him after the trial, where forwards were getting injured, Taupau looks to have trimmed down, fit and fast. Expect him to play big minutes with all their injuries and lack of depth. Plan to captain him the first few rounds. Plays round 12, is a must by then anyway, and could be much more expensive by then.

Hard to disagree with any of that!