NRL Fantasy 2019 thread part 8

Alfie wrote:

I don't think they'll have Su'a and Glenn on the bench, my prediction:

8. Lodge 50
9. Macca 80
10. Ofa 50
11. Fifita 65
12. Gillett 80
13. TPJ 55
14. Glenn 40
15. Flegler 30
16. Fensom 30
17. Staggs 0

I guess we wait till TLT but I don't think he'll run all three of Glenn, Flegler and Fensom, and if he does, Glenn won't play in the middle much. Considering that Gillett is coming back from that neck injury, I doubt he'll get 80 straight away. That would mean either Su'A comes onto the bench to cover edge or Glenn plays mostly edge with Flegler and Fensom playing middle. Once Gillett starts to play 80, then maybe Ofa might lose some minutes but early on, it's very likely that Glenn plays mostly edge, freeing up minutes for Ofa.

My minutes guess is:

8. Lodge 50
9. Macca 80
10. Ofa 60
11. Fifita 65
12. Gillett 65 (at least to start the year)
13. TPJ 55 (his hammies will get him his share of early rests)
14. Staggs 0
15. Glenn 50 (20 in the middle, 30 on edge)
16. Flegler 25
17. Fensom 30

SI wrote:

Indeed mate  He literally said 'horrocious' live on a Fox coverage.  He also invented the word 'stampling' whilst describing a Second Rower running over a Centre (can't remember who they were now) in live commentary.  He was trying to say both stomped on and trampled over at the same time, which kimmorleyed in to 'stampled'  

I'm sure someone here still has a screenshot  

Couldn't find the video but found this weird ad lol https://www.nswrl.com.au/news/2018/06/12/feelin-blues-with-brett-kimmorley/
Did he do it on purpose by the way or did it go undetected to everyone but your eagle ear?

Mulvy wrote:

Actually yes. Prior to 2018 and 2017 Fifita averaged over 60 for the previous four years. These are the fallen guns Welshy loves and hitherto mattnz loathes. I think? Both make good points.

Yes, I think there are much more accurate indicators of future performance than historical performance. So easy to get burned the last few years hoping for players to get back to their former glory.

mattnz wrote:

He scored 0 tries last season,so any tries are upside this season.

Only added him after the trial, where forwards were getting injured, Taupau looks to have trimmed down, fit and fast. Expect him to play big minutes with all their injuries and lack of depth. Plan to captain him the first few rounds. Plays round 12, is a must by then anyway, and could be much more expensive by then.

I think there's upside to Taupau and from memory Des likes to flog his front rowers (Graham & Tolman), and yes you want him in your team by round 12, but even if he averages 60, which is optimistic, he only goes up by 50k so not sure that's a reason to start him.

rhinoceroo wrote:

I think there's upside to Taupau and from memory Des likes to flog his front rowers (Graham & Tolman), and yes you want him in your team by round 12, but even if he averages 60, which is optimistic, he only goes up by 50k so not sure that's a reason to start him.

If you value a trade at $150k you are $200k ahead at round 12.

rhinoceroo wrote:

I think there's upside to Taupau and from memory Des likes to flog his front rowers (Graham & Tolman), and yes you want him in your team by round 12, but even if he averages 60, which is optimistic, he only goes up by 50k so not sure that's a reason to start him.

That's the important part. No one cares if he makes money.

i remember people talking about how des hates an offload. which may mean tapau doesnt get as many this season. Am i making up a load of shit by saying that? or was that actually talked about. please im going insane!

Alfie wrote:

SI wrote:

Indeed mate  He literally said 'horrocious' live on a Fox coverage.  He also invented the word 'stampling' whilst describing a Second Rower running over a Centre (can't remember who they were now) in live commentary.  He was trying to say both stomped on and trampled over at the same time, which kimmorleyed in to 'stampled'  

I'm sure someone here still has a screenshot  

Couldn't find the video but found this weird ad lol https://www.nswrl.com.au/news/2018/06/12/feelin-blues-with-brett-kimmorley/
Did he do it on purpose by the way or did it go undetected to everyone but your eagle ear?

He didn't mean any of it mate, and a whole heap of the lads on here will remember it, maybe 2015 or early 2016? He was absolutely terrible there commentating for a few months. I can't remember the context now, but he even said 'raped him in' at one stage instead of 'roped him in' during that period

Of course, us good folk at Fanatics may have edited his Wiki page to highlight his skeeellzzzzz. I don't think I have a screenshot on my current Lappy of said Wiki entry, but hopefully someone does . It was deleted the very next morning

King Assassin wrote:i remember people talking about how des hates an offload. which may mean tapau doesnt get as many this season. Am i making up a load of shit by saying that? or was that actually talked about. please im going insane!

I can't remember. Milchy made a post a while ago about Des being okay with the offload and had stats of course. And if the latest trial is anything to go by, then it's all good, but honestly NFI.

I don't think Dessy would discourage Taupau's offloading. Second phase footy was one of the few strengths we had last year and Taupau rarely made a muck of his offloads, very efficient. He'd be more inclined to minimise it if there were too many errors coming from Taupau's offloads

Alfie wrote:I don't think Dessy would discourage Taupau's offloading. Second phase footy was one of the few strengths we had last year and Taupau rarely made a muck of his offloads, very efficient. He'd be more inclined to minimise it if there were too many errors coming from Taupau's offloads

Agree.

Fifita Fuck off. Tapau welcome to the team

mattnz wrote:

If you value a trade at $150k you are $200k ahead at round 12.

Not if you make more money by picking players who are cheaper than Taupau, and in going for Taupau & Fifita, who are priced within 50k of their ceiling, you're limiting the amount of cash you generate elsewhere.

150k (I think 200k was the figure Steve Nicholls worked out, bearing in mind duff trades and failed cows) isn't the "value" of a trade, it's the return you need to make on a trade. Holding Taupau doesn't deliver dollar return because the hypothetical trade hasn't happened, so that point's irrelevent. He could be a good pick because he brings you points, but that's a different argument.

rhinoceroo wrote:

Not if you make more monet by picking players who are cheaper than Taupau, and in going for Taupau & Fifita, who are priced within 50k of their ceiling, you're limiting the amount of cash you generate elsewhere.

150k (I think 200k was the figure Steve Nicholls worked out, bearing in mind duff trades and failed cows) isn't the "value" of a trade, it's the return you need to make on a trade. Holding Taupau doesn't deliver dollar return because the hypothetical trade hasn't happened, so that point's irrelevent. He could be a good pick because he brings you points, but that's a different argument.

You can consider it to be the opportunity cost of having to use a trade that could have been used to create $150k value elsewhere.

The best value pick ups generally are going to be bottom dollar cash cows. My strategy is to find the best of them, most likely start with 9 and trade in 3-4 replacements to only end up with the best of them (there are a large number this season). Then use the cash saved to buy guns with upside.

The other key difference this season is that a few of the bottom dollar guys look to be very playable and should score pretty well.

King Assassin wrote:Fifita Fuck off. Tapau welcome to the team

Holy crap. Don't listen to me!

Bethany_B wrote:

I guess we wait till TLT but I don't think he'll run all three of Glenn, Flegler and Fensom, and if he does, Glenn won't play in the middle much. Considering that Gillett is coming back from that neck injury, I doubt he'll get 80 straight away. That would mean either Su'A comes onto the bench to cover edge or Glenn plays mostly edge with Flegler and Fensom playing middle. Once Gillett starts to play 80, then maybe Ofa might lose some minutes but early on, it's very likely that Glenn plays mostly edge, freeing up minutes for Ofa.

My minutes guess is:

8. Lodge 50
9. Macca 80
10. Ofa 60
11. Fifita 65
12. Gillett 65 (at least to start the year)
13. TPJ 55 (his hammies will get him his share of early rests)
14. Staggs 0
15. Glenn 50 (20 in the middle, 30 on edge)
16. Flegler 25
17. Fensom 30

I don't recall Glenn ever playing as a middle forward. I recall him playing hooker and halfback but never as a prop/lock.

Fensom is basically a prop these days.

Is L Leilua going to benefit the most from JDB being suspended? Games at 75+ min he averaged 51.5 without tries.

Otherwise, do we pick up Josh Kerr?

Rapture_NRL wrote:Is L Leilua going to benefit the most from JDB being suspended? Games at 75+ min he averaged 51.5 without tries.

Otherwise, do we pick up Josh Kerr?

I don't think we'll know until TLT and even then you can't be sure.

Rapture_NRL wrote:Is L Leilua going to benefit the most from JDB being suspended? Games at 75+ min he averaged 51.5 without tries.

Otherwise, do we pick up Josh Kerr?

Josh kerr is currently fighting for a bench spot with lawrie and latimore