NRL Fantasy 2019 Part 14

Thoughts?

Have had a bit of a look into Napa to see the difference in his scoring and why this has actually occurred dating back to 2016. We are all aware of the major change in minutes (57 in 2016 to 47 in 2017 to 42 in 2018). What we saw from this change is the part that interests me. Base stats stayed relatively flat in line with his minute drop(as we would expect) with tackles per minute staying fairly flat (0.56 in 2016 to 0.53 in 2017 to 0.57 in 2018) and run metres per minute having a minor impact (2.14 in 2016 to 2.08 in 2017 to 1.9 in 2018). The change to run metres looks to have come in post contact metres which lines up with a decrease in TBs on a per game basis Napa had 1.7 in 2016, 0.9 in 2017 and 0.7 in 2018.

The main change to Napa's scoring comes from his demerits. They stayed pretty similar year on year despite the decrease in minutes. 2016 Napa had 0.06 negative plays per minute, 2017 0.07 and 2018 0.085. Errors stayed fairly flat at 0.005, 0.004 and 0.002 with the main changes coming in penalties and missed tackles. Penalties went from 0.008 to 0.006 to 0.021. Missed tackles went from 0.053 to 0.059 to 0.061

So what does all of this mean for fantasy? Napa has had a 26% reduction in minutes but a 45% reduction in scoring. Penalties have increase by 80% and missed tackles by 15% which indicates Napa has become more careless in his play(shown by his increase in games missed for suspension). In addition a 58% decrease in TBs could show he isn't running as hard or he has been figured out.

Taking these factors into account and using Napa's 2016 minutes (which is what some expect at the Bulldogs) and using his 2018 scoring we would be looking at roughly at 32 average. Not sure he is worth it at price point and don't think he will get quite as many minutes as expected.

TL;DR I think Napa is only worth it if you think he can reign in the demerits or increase his work rate in more minutes

Do you believe i should take the risk and run both smith and cook from the start

Csmith
tolman, fifita
murray,radley,arrow
Keighran,munster
Burns, Bird
CNK,Hughes, Kahu

Bench
cook, napa , garner, nikora
Reserves
mikaele, sivio, brown, ravalwa

Milchy wrote:
Interesting that everyone here seems to be starting Dylan Brown in the halves, but in the community team voting, everyone (well 5 people at the moment) are preferring Keighran

At home, kicking against a team of spuds in a team who should win Vs A team of spuds playing away who should get beat. It's a pretty easy choice.

For anyone that cares this is how my lads will be running out. With the hamstring injury still possibly lingering I've gone could on Hymel Hunt and jumped on the Burns train. Still a few of my favourite preseason PODs getting a run in Ofa, Munster and Matterson. Would love to have Crichton but the chance that he gets 40 minutes for 30 points and bleeds cash puts me off. Will likely by my first upgrade.

McCullough
Fifita, Ofa
Arrow, Matterson, Murray
Munster, Morgan
Holland, Bird
Edwards, CNK, Burns

Mahoney, Capewell, Brown, Nikora

Sivo, Keighran, Ravalawa, Sele

@multiple.scoregasms
Do you have an opinion on Napa's scoring pre and post head-tackle last year.

His first sinbin coincided with a big drop in scoring, and he never recovered. Do you think it will impact him in 2019?

Milchy wrote:
Couple of votes going in the community team around captain and some starting positions if people want to have a say

https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t900-round-1-starting-half-wfb

https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t898-week-1-vote-for-our-captain

Votes have been cast!

you should too:

Milchy wrote:@multiple.scoregasms
Do you have an opinion on Napa's scoring pre and post head-tackle last year.

His first sinbin coincided with a big drop in scoring, and he never recovered. Do you think it will impact him in 2019?

From the eye test I think he tried to change his tackling style and hadn't yet become second nature so he struggled to wrap players up defensively. Provided he has continued working on this all preseason I think he will be less caught in his own head and should be able to play a more natural game. I don't think it will have a huge impact on his scoring

Noticed Tolman's ownership percentage has changed from ~6% to 7.2%. Gilletts has changed form 13.5% to 14.7%. Arrow 10.1% to 11.6%

Hi im new to fantasy, wondering if i can please get some feedback on my team before lockout:
Macca
Fifita R.James
Elijah taylor Trbojevic Murray
SJ Peachy
Kahu Bird
H.Hunt C.Crichton RTS

Radley Nikora Ravalawa Keighran

Kamikamica DBroown Host Garrick

Any feedback will be appreciated.

lubedragon wrote:Do you believe i should take the risk and run both smith and cook from the start

Csmith
tolman, fifita
murray,radley,arrow
Keighran,munster
Burns, Bird
CNK,Hughes, Kahu

Bench
cook, napa , garner, nikora
Reserves
mikaele, sivio, brown, ravalwa

Thats a better looking team than I would have expected having Smith and Cook. Who needs WFB anyway.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:Have had a bit of a look into Napa to see the difference in his scoring and why this has actually occurred dating back to 2016. We are all aware of the major change in minutes (57 in 2016 to 47 in 2017 to 42 in 2018). What we saw from this change is the part that interests me. Base stats stayed relatively flat in line with his minute drop(as we would expect) with tackles per minute staying fairly flat (0.56 in 2016 to 0.53 in 2017 to 0.57 in 2018) and run metres per minute having a minor impact (2.14 in 2016 to 2.08 in 2017 to 1.9 in 2018). The change to run metres looks to have come in post contact metres which lines up with a decrease in TBs on a per game basis Napa had 1.7 in 2016, 0.9 in 2017 and 0.7 in 2018.

The main change to Napa's scoring comes from his demerits. They stayed pretty similar year on year despite the decrease in minutes. 2016 Napa had 0.06 negative plays per minute, 2017 0.07 and 2018 0.085. Errors stayed fairly flat at 0.005, 0.004 and 0.002 with the main changes coming in penalties and missed tackles. Penalties went from 0.008 to 0.006 to 0.021. Missed tackles went from 0.053 to 0.059 to 0.061

So what does all of this mean for fantasy? Napa has had a 26% reduction in minutes but a 45% reduction in scoring. Penalties have increase by 80% and missed tackles by 15% which indicates Napa has become more careless in his play(shown by his increase in games missed for suspension). In addition a 58% decrease in TBs could show he isn't running as hard or he has been figured out.

Taking these factors into account and using Napa's 2016 minutes (which is what some expect at the Bulldogs) and using his 2018 scoring we would be looking at roughly at 32 average. Not sure he is worth it at price point and don't think he will get quite as many minutes as expected.

TL;DR I think Napa is only worth it if you think he can reign in the demerits or increase his work rate in more minutes

Was the big papa tape recorded after 2016?

lubedragon wrote:Do you believe i should take the risk and run both smith and cook from the start

Csmith
tolman, fifita
murray,radley,arrow
Keighran,munster
Burns, Bird
CNK,Hughes, Kahu

Bench
cook, napa , garner, nikora
Reserves
mikaele, sivio, brown, ravalwa

Thats a better looking team than I would have expected having Smith and Cook. Who needs WFB anyway.

Thoughts on the team??

multiple.scoregasms wrote:For anyone that cares this is how my lads will be running out. With the hamstring injury still possibly lingering I've gone could on Hymel Hunt and jumped on the Burns train. Still a few of my favourite preseason PODs getting a run in Ofa, Munster and Matterson. Would love to have Crichton but the chance that he gets 40 minutes for 30 points and bleeds cash puts me off. Will likely by my first upgrade.

McCullough
Fifita, Ofa
Arrow, Matterson, Murray
Munster, Morgan
Holland, Bird
Edwards, CNK, Burns

Mahoney, Capewell, Brown, Nikora

Sivo, Keighran, Ravalawa, Sele

Whats the prediction for Sele?

Players I've dropped that I'm worried about are Watson and Lane. Have no Knights seems strange as should be good team this season

kingx wrote:

Thoughts on the team??

Who needs HK coverage? Cook wont get injured.

wallace or twal

1. Tedesco, Gillett, Sele (228k) or

2. Hughes, Sironen, Munster (Keighran moves to the 18-21 with Brown, Sivo, Rava)