NRL Fantasy 2019 Part 15

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Of the guys in my team Radley is the only one I'm not confident in due to price.

But i suppose ya gotta have a backup hooker. Are 40s a reasonable expectation?

I have the same feeling on him as I did Macca mate. Not sure what to do. Not sure if I spend the money and get Lane or go Siro instead.

1 game in and already I’m having to tell myself to fight the urge to rage trade. Give your players a chance to be shit for 3rds not just 1.

Bird is sitting as my 19th man with Nikora my starting centre, this makes me sad

wolfking wrote:

What would everyone do if that happens?

Poopyhole?

Rippin and Tearin wrote:
I think its worth it mate if you have a dud cow week 1 and you have the cash to upgrade without downgrading elsewhere.

That's my point where I'm coming from I think. If all cows fire then ripper, don't need Bird, but freeing the money up now enables two potential upgrades if two cows flop next week, IF everyone else gets through healthy. Bird also has a secure spot. Hindsight is great but you can't blame us the ones that didn't start with him, nor can you say the ones that did start with him knew he was gonna post a good score.

If I stick with Radley, I have 258K free for next week. might spend 100 of that though and get Lane, dunno.

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Of the guys in my team Radley is the only one I'm not confident in due to price.

But i suppose ya gotta have a backup hooker. Are 40s a reasonable expectation?

Same boat. You need a backup Hooker so price wise its out of Mahoney, Radley unless you sacrifice other positions and get two gun Hookers. Brailey 2.0 is bottom dollar, he should take Seggy's role and could pump out 30s trying to show his brother up.

With no injuries the minutes look like (give or take 5 minutes)

Glenn playing 80
Su'a and Fifita sharing an edge
Flegler 20 mins
Offa 50 mins
Lodge 55 mins
TPJ 55 mins
Gillett 60 mins

80
80
20
50
55
55
60

It's clear Gillett and TPJ are the real winners. This really does make Gillett a trade target. Can't see him not staying at lock because their middle rotation would be horrocious otherwise. Need one of Offa/TPJ to be on bench.
I would start TPJ at prop over Offa.

wolfking wrote:

I have the same feeling on him as I did Macca mate.  Not sure what to do.  Not sure if I spend the money and get Lane or go Siro instead.

I'm bound by the fact he's my hooker cover.

In the first 3-4 rounds I have no problem shuffling the deck chairs. Sideways trades, downgrading guns, etc just to get the players I want.

Fortitude wrote:1 game in and already I’m having to tell myself to fight the urge to rage trade. Give your players a chance to be shit for 3rds not just 1.

It's more to free up cash to fix dud cows.

Iron Mike wrote:

Will Bird only go up $34K, that looks a little light on years gone by. I was expecting $50K. How do we work it out?
What the first game has shown me is that the best formula truly is guns and cows. Midrangers (except the odd one like Gillett) will not be making as much money as guys less than $400K that score really well. I'm a bit worried how many midrangers I have that just won't make the coin I want or score enough to be relevant.

Stop panicking mate. You have obiously picked those midrangers because you think they will go well. You never know what cows will dud and what ones will score a double and make you money. You want those midrangers to make you money, they obviously wont make as much but you want your 450K midrange to make a little cash so you can downgrade your cow after he peaks and upgrade your midranger to a gun who has bottmed out. No need to panick after one game mate. Stick with your gut.

Iron Mike wrote:Can't see him not staying at lock because their middle rotation would be horrocious otherwise. Need one of Offa/TPJ to be on bench.
I would start TPJ at prop over Offa.

Haas will be back round 5 though, he will come straight in.

It is funny that all the talk is about Bird when for sure IMO Gillet was the standout yesterday. The only criticism of the Gillet pick all preseason I heard was the fear he would be worked back in slowly after his injury. Last night put that well and truely to bed. Realistically I think he's gonna ave 50 this year which makes him a $750k player. That's pretty close to the money we are talking with Bird but on top of that you get a lock in your starting 17 for the first half of the season and the potential for a keeper.

TLDR - Bird is tempting but Gillett was the standout last night!

!

Does your C and VC get locked at the beginning of round 1? Fifita and Sam Burgess are locked for me

lukeaye wrote:

You never chase CTR or WFB scores who aren't laying 2RF or FB.

Fantasy rule number 1

Yeah that's why I never got Hiku last year & really regretted it especially when he kept on posting good scores. Of course there's a lot of games to go but I'll be keen to get Bird next week.

Iron Mike wrote:Listening to Siebold after match I feel like Gillett got more minutes at the end due to closeness of game and because of Roberts getting injured. Those minutes would have been Flegler's
In an ideal scenario I see Gillett getting 60. They are really short in the middle if Gillett doesn't play lock though.

Yeah I watched the post match interview and Seibold said with the Roberts injury his interchange was messed up a little bit. He would've liked to give Tommy some more minutes. Depending on Roberts, who comes in next week? Carrigan, Shibasaki, Fensom, O'Sullivan?

Iron Mike wrote:

Will Bird only go up $34K, that looks a little light on years gone by. I was expecting $50K. How do we work it out?
What the first game has shown me is that the best formula truly is guns and cows. Midrangers (except the odd one like Gillett) will not be making as much money as guys less than $400K that score really well. I'm a bit worried how many midrangers I have that just won't make the coin I want or score enough to be relevant.

Not necessarily true at all mate. I'd suggest you familiarise yourself with the price predictor model. Theres a few going round and the formula is pretty straight forward (Milch a very good person to contact - and MTB too). Actually you are a CPA aren't you? so you'll love it and have no problem with it - I'd say you will enjoy playing round with it.

Anyway, what you will find is that a good midranger (which I think are plentiful this year) will make more money that a number of the cows. The key though is that the value mid-rangers are serviceable in your 17 and some will be keepers. That's the main POD IMO.

Milikache wrote:Does your C and VC get locked at the beginning of round 1? Fifita and Sam Burgess are locked for me

Yep. VC and C are the only players you can't shuffle anymore.