NRL Fantasy 2019 Part 18

rhinoceroo wrote:

You get what you pay for but Tohu has hardly been talked about at all pre-season or now but was really, really good at the weekend.

Yeah I think he'll average 55ish. Only issue is he was similar price to Arrow and I could only have 1 :/

multiple.scoregasms wrote:At this stage of the year role is more important than score IMO. Coin flip decisions like Keighran over Brown(38 points), Fifita over Taupau(27 points) can make a huge difference in the rankings. I would only be trading out players who didn't get the role you expected preseason (Ofa, Napa, Hetherington) or got injured and need to be replaced (Brown, Frizell, Roberts) anything outside of that you are throwing away a preseason of research over one very high scoring round. If you believed in Arrow, Radley, Holland etc preseason then I would be holding. If you just picked them to follow the herd then feel free to burn all your trades by round 17 on the player of the week.

+1

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

Surely when you picked Holland you knew he had a low score in him? Games of 19 and 28 in 80 minute centre performances last year? Outside of those two games (which I believe is a terrible way to measure players) he averaged 50 in 8 games at centre. That is what CTRs and WFBs do, they balance the low scores with the high scores

Yes this is true, but I always had be reservations and even pointed it out that his patch of good scores were also when bulldogs were on a purple patch beating teams they shouldnt have towards the end of the year. If I don’t move holland on where do I get more cash. With BE of 33 he could score 25 again and that Be gets even higher. It also allows me to trade Garrick a failed cow, to Bird who looked good and I think will score 35+ with the chance of a 50 every week. I just think Holland at this point of the year and Garrick to Lawrie and Bird gives me better scores and some early cash generation. I just think it benefits my team this year. I’m happy to double trade and get holland back in if he looks to be improving.

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:I thought Ryan Matterson was good over the weekend. Pretty base stat powered 51.

Nothing to see there move along

multiple.scoregasms wrote:At this stage of the year role is more important than score IMO. Coin flip decisions like Keighran over Brown(38 points), Fifita over Taupau(27 points) can make a huge difference in the rankings. I would only be trading out players who didn't get the role you expected preseason (Ofa, Napa, Hetherington) or got injured and need to be replaced (Brown, Frizell, Roberts) anything outside of that you are throwing away a preseason of research over one very high scoring round. If you believed in Arrow, Radley, Holland etc preseason then I would be holding. If you just picked them to follow the herd then feel free to burn all your trades by round 17 on the player of the week.

My concern with Arrow (which sparked the whole debate, sorry guys) is not one bad score. It's entirely as you say a concern about his role. I think we'll see Cartwright come on around the 20 minute mark again for Boyd pushing James to the middle. They didn't do that last year. My concern is the role has changed. He might not get those big minute games anymore, 55 min might be it. I'm holding for another week though. Hard to judge in those conditions, with an injury as well and the game already lost at the end there.

Edit: Also thank you MS for your reply about Sele last night.

mattnz wrote:So pleased I already have Bateman, fun watching everyone else pulling their team apart to get him in

They'll get to have their laughs at yours in a few weeks.

Mulvy wrote:

My concern with Arrow (which sparked the whole debate, sorry guys) is not one bad score. It's entirely as you say a concern about his role. I think we'll see Cartwright come on around the 20 minute mark again for Boyd pushing James to the middle. They didn't do that last year. My concern is the role has changed. He might not get those big minute games anymore, 55 min might be it. I'm holding for another week though. Hard to judge in those conditions, with an injury as well and the game already lost at the end there.

I don't think Cartwright will be playing that many minutes again. Last interchange taken by Roberts injury was probably Arrow>Cartwright with James back to edge. Brennan wanted James on the edge for a reason so surely he wants him there with the game on the line

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Also it seems that all of Taupaus offloads have been entrusted to Sironen. Nice score there from him at 468k

Taupau puts away the offload in the wet, brings it out when it is dry.

Mulvy wrote:

My concern with Arrow (which sparked the whole debate, sorry guys) is not one bad score. It's entirely as you say a concern about his role. I think we'll see Cartwright come on around the 20 minute mark again for Boyd pushing James to the middle. They didn't do that last year. My concern is the role has changed. He might not get those big minute games anymore, 55 min might be it. I'm holding for another week though. Hard to judge in those conditions, with an injury as well and the game already lost at the end there.

You're right, he needs the minutes. But going off Brennan's comments saying he would have seen an extra 10 min at the end if not for injury, his score bumps over 50.. Happy to hold. I'd move someone like Radley before Arrow

Camo123 wrote:Is having Host and then bringing in Lawrie too much in terms of possible poor job security, or does the potential short-term money making outweigh this risk?

How much will Host make if he scores 30s for the next three weeks?

Iron Mike wrote:Garth Brennan did state in the presser that the Roberts injury resulted in Arrow not getting back onto the field. We shall see this week, because if that’s the case, there’s a good chance Arrow is getting 65+ minutes if he played 54-55 minutes straight, to get a breather and then maybe another stint after 10-15 or so minutes off the field.

Did he actually say that? I watched the press conference solely to see if there was any info on Arrow, but I didn't think there was any.

It makes perfect sense. As previously discussed, while Arrow was off the Raiders went to 18 nil. There was just no need for him to come back on.

I know Brennan is a spud, but no NRL coach is playing their best forward for 55 minutes straight and not bringing them back on when a game is in the balance. Every coach wants there best players out there for the last 10 to 15 mins of a game. There is no fkn way that is Arrows role moving forward.

Iron Mike wrote:

How much will Host make if he scores 30s for the next three weeks?

Three scores of 30 would see him rise to about 362k (bearing in mind my site is using 14910 as the MN)

Let’s say I hold Holland and give him one more chance. Is Garrick to Host worth it? I’m not all that convinced Host stays at 2RF with luci hanging around.

For what its worth I ran a few (very early) price projections on my current team which is:

Macca
Fifita, Tolman
Murray, Gillett, Arrow
Morgan, Croft
Bateman, Nikora
Edwards, Burns, CNK

Mahoney, Capewell, Garner, Host

Brown, Keighran, Ravalawa, Mikaele

I’m estimating that to get a solid 18 by seasons end Im still ~$2m short. Hence $2m cash generation still required to get to where I want to be above and beyond where I project my current crop to grow to.

Given that I think realistically you look for ~$150k per CC trade that menas roughly 13 trades required to bring in those CCws to earn that $2m + another 10 or so to either cash them out or upgrade to the guns (Im hoping a few of those cash generation picks will be keepers themselves (Crichton for example). So For me that’s 23 of 32 trades remaining. Add a few more on as a buffer for dud picks, that takes me to 26. 6 trades remaining for Byes/Origin/ and end of year injuries. It feels very much similar to how things were for me last year tbh.

A lot of things can change obviously, and I cant recall how this compared to last year in terms of the $ (I wish I could), but, whatever the case it does suggest that while money making is key at this stage, and you cant really afford to have dud cows in your EMGs right now, the crop of players we've been dealt with this year does seem to indicate a plausible path toward the gun final 18.

For more details, basically my analysis is based on forming a team of 3 x 60 point players, 5 x 55 point players, 7 x 50 pointers, 2 x 45 pointers, and 1 x 40 pointer and 3 more guys to round out the 21 at $300k each. Total cost = ~$14.9m. Current team ~$9.9m but projected to be ~$13.7m + CITB $70k. I then discount my projections for my non-keepers by $50k each taking into consideration that you can rarely time things right in terms of selling at highs. All that combined means roughly $2m cash generation required.

How does that all sit with you fullahs – have I stuffed anything up?

mattnz wrote:

Taupau puts away the offload in the wet, brings it out when it is dry.

Taupau top scores of 59 and 52 first 7 last season then went boom next 7. Was my intention to not start and try catch at right time but could easily be next game

StormTrooper96 wrote:Let’s say I hold Holland and give him one more chance. Is Garrick to Host worth it? I’m not all that convinced Host stays at 2RF with luci hanging around.

I feel like Garrick is going to be a dud, but using a trade to get Host feels pretty risky. I don't think anyone can answer with any certainty.

I'm trying to overcome my own FOMO and that means just sitting on Garrick in my NPRs. There will be new cows that pop up.

Camo123 wrote:Is having Host and then bringing in Lawrie too much in terms of possible poor job security, or does the potential short-term money making outweigh this risk?

I think both is good tbh, they will both make money, but perhaps more importantly having both mitigates the risk of not picking the one that will really benefit long term from the SG injuries.

my tv broke wrote:

I feel like Garrick is going to be a dud, but using a trade to get Host feels pretty risky. I don't think anyone can answer with any certainty.

I'm trying to overcome my own FOMO and that means just sitting on Garrick in my NPRs. There will be new cows that pop up.

I have no basis for this what soever, but when I think Manly in fantasy I think good scorers in the middle + DCE & TTrbo, and then bugger all else. When is the last time a C for Manly was good value? Genuine Q as my memory is shot

my tv broke wrote:

I feel like Garrick is going to be a dud, but using a trade to get Host feels pretty risky. I don't think anyone can answer with any certainty.

I'm trying to overcome my own FOMO and that means just sitting on Garrick in my NPRs. There will be new cows that pop up.

Garrick didn’t give me much in fantasy term. What’s your thoughts on my earlier trade MTB? Holland + Garrick to Lawrie + Bird?
Reckon I hold holland and Garrick for now?

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Im surprised at the lack of Tolman talk... but perhaps most people have him.

I'd actually be worried if I had Tolman, 52 minutes is not enough usually for him to average much more than 38 points, lucky Bulldogs didn't have the ball much and they had to defend a lot.
Can't see him averaging more the 44 this year.

Adam Elliot 50 mins
Sue 35 mins
Fualalo 30 mins
CHN 30 mins
Napa 45 mins

leaves 50 mins for Tolman ( not sure he gets the big minutes people are expecting as he offers little in attack)