NRL Fantasy 2019 Part 18

Ideal team would be:

McInnes
Vaughan Graham
TSims Lawrie Frizell

Hunt
Norman
Periera
Lafai
Lomax
Ravalawa
Widdop


Bench
Dufty
Latimore
KSims
Leilua

That would be my team if I was Mary when all available.

Iron Mike wrote:Garth Brennan did state in the presser that the Roberts injury resulted in Arrow not getting back onto the field. We shall see this week, because if that’s the case, there’s a good chance Arrow is getting 65+ minutes if he played 54-55 minutes straight, to get a breather and then maybe another stint after 10-15 or so minutes off the field.

I wouldn't be trading Arrow to get Bateman. I can see the Holland to Bateman trades working out but I can't quite do it this week. Maybe next week. Happy to watch on this week re: Raiders rotations and how he goes with the speed of the game vs Storm.

Have you got a link to this mate? I can only find one Brennan presser and he doesn't say that.

Understand all the Bateman love, have a Kahu + Lane > Bateman + Lawrie trade locked in myself at the moment.

But purely from a cash generation perspective Lawrie and Bird seem like the better candidates this week. Does everyone just already own Bird?

Conservatively speaking, if Lawrie scores a 40 he goes up ~$46k. Similar figure for Host but I really don't rate him (and I'm a dragons fan). If Bird scores a 40 he goes up ~$42k, but lets say he jags a 35 - still goes up ~$37k while a 30 gets him ~$32k.

Whereas Bateman with a 50 goes up ~$26k, and a 60 pushes him to ~$37k. If he flops and only gets a 40-45 he only moves $15-20k.

You could make more cash (unless Bird bombs - which is completely possible) and get an extra week to assess Bateman.

trade napa for bateman or lawrie?? or..

Krump wrote:
Have you got a link to this mate? I can only find one Brennan presser and he doesn't say that.

Should have stated I copy pasted from nrlsupercoachtalk but it was Catfish (he won supercoach) who wrote it and was in his minutes article (good information). Will state source next time to provide some context around what was said, as information could be not correct. I wonder if presser you are watching doesn't cover everything?

Individual wrote:trade napa for bateman or lawrie?? or..

Napa to lawrie this week as he will make far more and you remain with FRF cover. Then access the next best trade.

Rapture_NRL wrote:

You're right, he needs the minutes. But going off Brennan's comments saying he would have seen an extra 10 min at the end if not for injury, his score bumps over 50.. Happy to hold. I'd move someone like Radley before Arrow

Does someone have a link to brennan saying that? The presser on nrl.cm he didn't say that.

Krump wrote:
I'd love to grab Siro but don't have anyone I'm prepared to dump to do it yet.

It was between Radley and Siro for me and I chose Radley due to HOK cover

my tv broke wrote:I think Friz will keep playing lock, personally.

Don't see why it is assumed that Korbin Sims starts at lock. Did signing with the Dragons turn him into twice the player he has been for the first 120 games of his NRL career? I doubt it.

I agree. Korbin Sims is a plodder there to give a bit of squad depth (already needed thanks to JDB)

The thought he just starts taking over a local young gun in Lawrie’s minutes or whatever position they need Friz to play with no JDB, is pretty well baseless at this stage.

And if Mary does go that way he will slide closer to that spoon quicker than expected

I'm torn this week for my final 2 reserve spots. Anyone care to rank these guys?
Keighran, Sele, Brown, Burr

At the moment I'm thinking the first 2. Panthers play before both warriors and Eels so if Sele drops back to the bench I can always swap him for Burr or Brown before kick off.

White Lightning wrote:I just realised I can go with 1 trade:
Ofahengaue out - J. Bateman in (via Sele)

The problem with this is I'll have no frf cover & even though Sele is named to start will the Panthers change their line up pre-game if his arm isn't right. But then I think if there was a doubt on his arm they probably would of named him in the reserves rather than as starting lock.

Running with only 2 FRF is OK in some circumstances. Not sure I'd be happy if one of the 2 was Sele though

Just ran Crichton through the mtvb calculator. I don't for a minute think he'll be on the bench this week... if he scores successive 55s he bottoms out at 715k, 50s takes him to 690k. If he does have one more week on the bench with a low score then he goes very low indeed.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

Surely when you picked Holland you knew he had a low score in him? Games of 19 and 28 in 80 minute centre performances last year? Outside of those two games (which I believe is a terrible way to measure players) he averaged 50 in 8 games at centre. That is what CTRs and WFBs do, they balance the low scores with the high scores

If there is enough games to still give a good sample, I like removing the highest and lowest score from a players season to give a better reflection of average without any outliers.
Obviously if they have only played 4 games this isn't as useful as if they've played 20

Yep Reklaw wrote:Understand all the Bateman love, have a Kahu + Lane > Bateman + Lawrie trade locked in myself at the moment.

But purely from a cash generation perspective Lawrie and Bird seem like the better candidates this week. Does everyone just already own Bird?

hell no everyone doesn’t. It’s Bird

I don’t have the best memory but there’s a long term particle in there that says bird bird Bird is fricken NOT the word.

I prob trust eye test too much these days given the fantasy game has evolved and I know these sideways palms are fantasy gold and makeup for ridiculous try conceding errors, but Staggs looked 5 times the player to Bird out there. That little northies prick will want to tighten up his act id reckon to even stay relevant,  if they go 0 and 3

Morris > Lawrie
Sele > Bird

This leaves me 1k haha.

Weather forecasts for games over the weekend:
Dragons Rabbitohs - Thunderstorms, 95% chance of rain on the day, 60% chance of rain at game time. Unfortunate for those of us relying on Captain Cook
Raiders Storm - Possible Thunderstorms with rain, 75% chance of rain at game time
Broncos Cowboys - Likely Thunderstorms before the game, 55% chance of light rain at game time
Sharks Titans - Cloudy 7% chance of rain. Fifita looking a good captaincy choice.
Newcastle Panthers - Cloudy 20% chance of rain
Sea Eagles Roosters - 10% chance of rain, Taupau could be a captaincy option, lots of minutes available, Teddy likely to score a lot better in the dry
Bulldogs Eels - 20% chance of rain
Tigers Warriors - 20% chance of rain

Generally looking like players in later games will get a better chance at posting big scores.

Individual wrote:trade napa for bateman or lawrie?? or..

That's a hell of an upgrade. I'd do it.

Iron Mike wrote:

Should have stated I copy pasted from nrlsupercoachtalk but it was Catfish (he won supercoach) who wrote it and was in his minutes article (good information). Will state source next time to provide some context around what was said, as information could be not correct. I wonder if presser you are watching doesn't cover everything?

I'll keep looking to see if I can find another presser. It didn't look edited.

rhinoceroo wrote:Just ran Crichton through the mtvb calculator. I don't for a minute think he'll be on the bench this week... if he scores successive 55s he bottoms out at 715k, 50s takes him to 690k. If he does have one more week on the bench with a low score then he goes very low indeed.

I think he'll start form the bench again but will play a lot more minutes than last week. I think the first 20 or so minutes is such high level intensity he'll come on after that and run around some tired forwards.

I'm pretty confident he'll be starting next week. Poor aubbs :'(

mattnz wrote:Weather forecasts for games over the weekend:
Dragons Rabbitohs - Thunderstorms, 95% chance of rain on the day, 60% chance of rain at game time. Unfortunate for those of us relying on Captain Cook
Raiders Storm - Possible Thunderstorms with rain, 75% chance of rain at game time
Broncos Cowboys - Likely Thunderstorms before the game, 55% chance of light rain at game time
Sharks Titans - Cloudy 7% chance of rain. Fifita looking a good captaincy choice.
Newcastle Panthers - Cloudy 20% chance of rain
Sea Eagles Roosters - 10% chance of rain, Taupau could be a captaincy option, lots of minutes available, Teddy likely to score a lot better in the dry
Bulldogs Eels - 20% chance of rain
Tigers Warriors - 20% chance of rain

Generally looking like players in later games will get a better chance at posting big scores.

Weather forecasts and positional player match-ups.

Random and Welshy might have a producer/editors job for you mate. My fav poster award nom so far this season 

Joey Superior wrote:For those that have Garrick and Holland and are thinking of cashing out wouldn't it make more sense to cash out Holland to bird/host/lawrie/bateman as there is a 50/50 chance that Holland will lose or make money where as Garrick is bottom dollar and can't drop any lower.

I'd rather not take the gamble on Holland losing more money than a player like garrick who could only improve (unlikely).

This is only if you're dead set on moving Holland along though.

Whilst Garrick can only be bought/sold for $212k, his background price can drop a long, long way. And he has to make back any of that loss before he makes a profit that you will see.

Holland is more likely to make decent cash in the short-medium term, IMO