NRL Fantasy 2019 Part 22

For those considering trading out the following players

Capewell:  currently priced at 30pnts,  avg score of 36pnts
Burr:        currently priced at 20pnts,  avg score of 34pnts
Ravalawa: currently priced at 17 pnts, avg score of 24pnts

Rabbit wrote:Sorry. Wrong forum. I was meaning to post on the ‘Worlds Great amateurs’ Page.

No love at all for this? SI and I must be the only ones on here with dirty minds.

White Lightning wrote:

Your guess is as good as mine re Tolman. I thought he'd be playing 55 minutes minimum & when he's not on the field you can see the difference. Pay is hard to read e.g. why he broke up the Holland/R. Smith combo is baffling. I would hold firm with Tolman because sooner or later Pay has to realise the team plays better with Tolman playing more minutes. The bench this week is Lichaa, Ogden, R. Martin, Chris Smith. Looking at their classifications in fantasy Ogden, Martin & Smith are 2fr but I assume Ogden & Smith will be spelling the front row. The bench to me says Tolman will see increased minutes this week.

Cheers mate, much appreciated!

Iron Mike wrote:

Maybe not, but a lot of people are picking up Teddy, and his home ground surface is horrendous. Just think if I have the money why not choose Turbo with Teddy's BE 67 and Turbo 48.
Teddy hasn't exactly set the world on fire?

Teddy will fire soon, his history dictates that's very likely. He's injury free, is value, and probably that value increases after this round. I'm planning on picking him up soon and definitely before TTrbo who I think likely declines in price as he warms his way back into things. At the end of the day it's a value thing. You would be basing your trade on a POD/gut thing which is fine, but I think the numbers dictate a pretty strong counter argument.

mattnz wrote:Using MTBs but looking around not sure on it all being correct.
Take someone like Moses as a good example:
Priced at 37 to start the season
Week 1 BE 37 - scores 50
Week 2 BE 27 - scores 50
Week 3 BE 29?? surely that can't be correct, scored significantly over BE both weeks, BE should be coming down not going up?

What do you have his BE at Milchy?

Not sure this has been responded too has it? Hard to say exactly cause I dont know what the MN is. But it's in the ballpark mate - I'd say its correct plus or minus 2 or 3.

Take a look at the way the formula works for BEs and price changes. Just because a player outscores (or even 'significantly' outscores) their BE doesn't necessarily mean their BE will decline. By that logic once a player gets their BE to the -ve's they'd likely never see a positive BE again, which we know is not the case.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Teddy will fire soon, his history dictates that's very likely. He's injury free, is value, and probably that value increases after this round. I'm planning on picking him up soon and definitely before TTrbo who  I think likely declines in price as he warms his way back into things. At the end of the day it's a value thing. You would be basing your trade on a POD/gut thing which is fine, but I think the numbers dictate a pretty strong counter argument.

Nah. He hasn’t bottomed out yet.

With someone like Teddy its all about timing. It doesn't really matter what you pay for him if you buy him the round that he scores an 85.

We all expect Teddy to average 50 for the season.

If you buy him this week, and he's averaging 50 by, say, round 8, you've actually got a 57 ppg average from him since you bought him.

Rabbit wrote:

Nah. He hasn’t bottomed out yet.

Teddy? Yeah I agree. Will be hard to time, but his price could bottom any time from next week. The key will be placing yourself in a position to grab him whenever he does.

Or, despite me thinking there might be a bit of flawed logic in MTBs post, as he implies, the best time to grab him will likely be one game before he bottoms out...

MTB - IMO if we think Teddy is a 50 point player, we have to shelve those two first games and project he will average 50 from here on. Not sure we can say that his first two shockers means he has now become a better than 50 point player from here on (which I think is what you are effectively saying). Although perhaps when I read it again, you are just talking hypotheticals?

Teddy is going to bust out an 80 sooner or later.

Getting that 80 in your score is more important than saving a couple of bucks on price.
Money can be tight and some people will be forced to wait, but if you have the cash I'd move soon

Milchy wrote:
Teddy is going to bust out an 80 sooner or later.

Getting that 80 in your score is more important than saving a couple of bucks on price.
Money can be tight and some people will be forced to wait, but if you have the cash I'd move soon

Do you reckon anyone will move this week? I guess the odd person might that has Edwards, Watson, Tolo....but surely most people are fixing more fundamental issues in their team. Where's Mattnz? There's your POD bro - grab Teddy this week, 1 week before everyone else starts to

Rippin and Tearin wrote:MTB - IMO if we think Teddy is a 50 point player, we have to shelve those two first games and project he will average 50 from here on. Not sure we can say that his first two shockers means he has now become a better than 50 point player from here on (which I think is what you are effectively saying). Although perhaps when I read it again, you are just talking hypotheticals?

History would suggest he will average 50+ for the season. No reason that doesn't happen again.

So far, he's played on two wet tracks that didn't suit him at all.

He had two scores of 20's in the first three rounds of last season.

I'm not saying you have to get him this week (I am not), but you can't wait forever. Some showers again for Sydney predicted on Friday.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Do you reckon anyone will move this week? I guess the odd person might that has Edwards, Watson, Tolo....but surely most people are fixing more fundamental issues in their team. Where's Mattnz? There's your POD bro - grab Teddy this week, 1 week before everyone else starts to

Personally I'm planning Edwards to Teddy whenever I can afford it, and don't have more important trades to make.
Possibly next week or the week after.

Teddy/CNK/Burns would be a WFB I could leave for a little while. Maybe bring in Ponga (position dependant) or Ttrbo (fitness dependant) if they drop nicely in cash

Milchy wrote:

Personally I'm planning Edwards to Teddy whenever I can afford it, and don't have more important trades to make.
Possibly next week or the week after.

Teddy/CNK/Burns would be a WFB I could leave for a little while. Maybe bring in Ponga (position dependant) or Ttrbo (fitness dependant) if they drop nicely in cash

Im in exactly the same position mate. With that trade in mind it doesn't hurt quite so much that Edwards has underperformed!

Ponga is interesting too will be interesting to see how things go for him over the next couple of weeks.

327 for me before trades. Capewell to bird would drop that a lot!

Capewell to bird seemed like a slight waste of a trade but with graham sounding like he’s not that far off perhaps it makes more sense now?

What was his injury? I thought it was ACL in which case he’s still likely a while off

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Do you reckon anyone will move this week? I guess the odd person might that has Edwards, Watson, Tolo....but surely most people are fixing more fundamental issues in their team. Where's Mattnz? There's your POD bro - grab Teddy this week, 1 week before everyone else starts to

Nah, I just added CNK this week, so my back 3 are really solid, Burns, CNK, Katoa, allowed me to move Hughes into the halves to sure up the weak point in my team. Teddy is a luxury I can look at later. For now my focus was having a really solid team with no weaknesses throughout the playing 17. Last week's 39 total in the halves was a wake up call of what is really important at the moment.

My post trade team is:
Cook (C)
Taupau Fifita
Arrow Murray Nikora
Hughes Moses
Bateman Xerri
Katoa CNK Burns

Mahoney Garner B Smith Lawrie
Brown Keighran Rava Sivo



$3k in the bank (just managed to do the key trades I needed)

Hopefully in a week or two one of the slower cows will be ready to be milked to a new cow and Edwards Or even Capewell depending on form can turn into Teddy

mattnz wrote:

Nah, I just added CNK this week, so my back 3 are really solid, Burns, CNK, Katoa, allowed me to move Hughes into the halves to sure up the weak point in my team. Teddy is a luxury I can look at later. For now my focus was having a really solid team with no weaknesses throughout the playing 17. Last week's 39 total in the halves was a wake up call of what is really important at the moment.

My post trade team is:
Cook (C)
Taupau Fifita
Arrow Murray Nikora
Hughes Moses
Bateman Xerri
Katoa CNK Burns

Mahoney Garner B Smith Lawrie
Brown Keighran Rava Sivo



$3k in the bank (just managed to do the key trades I needed)

Nice team mate - the Katoa pick is looking like a gem. That right edge for the Sharks looks like it will pump out points this season! A lot of PODs there too. Will be interesting to see how your season pans out...

Team stands as

Mahoney
Fifita Taupau
Arrow Murray Lolo
Morgan DBrown
Nikora Holland
DEdwards Burns Ravalawa

Lane Niukore Garner Lawrie

Keighran, Burr, Roache, Mikaele.

All suggestions welcome.

Thinking Holland to Bird and:
Taumololo to any fullback? Teddy, Turbo, Ponga (will play fullback this week, Watson out, Lino to 6), Oates, Katoa, CNK

mattnz wrote:

Nah, I just added CNK this week, so my back 3 are really solid, Burns, CNK, Katoa, allowed me to move Hughes into the halves to sure up the weak point in my team. Teddy is a luxury I can look at later. For now my focus was having a really solid team with no weaknesses throughout the playing 17. Last week's 39 total in the halves was a wake up call of what is really important at the moment.

My post trade team is:
Cook (C)
Taupau Fifita
Arrow Murray Nikora
Hughes Moses
Bateman Xerri
Katoa CNK Burns

Mahoney Garner B Smith Lawrie
Brown Keighran Rava Sivo



$3k in the bank (just managed to do the key trades I needed)

You're that confident in Xerri playing?

Team for this week

Macca
Fifita, Twal
Murray, Arrow, Gillett
Morgan, Moses
Bird, Nikora
Rava, Burns, Edwards

Friend, Mahoney, Garner, Lawrie

Brown, Keighran, Sele, Sivo