NRL Fantasy 2019 Part 47

Milchy wrote:Quick digression on magic number.

Below is graph showing the progression of total points scored per round, and total salary taking the field per round.
Total salary is dropping because expensive guys like Bateman, TTrbo, DCE are dropping out and getting replaced by cheapies like Hudson Young, Kane Elgey etc.
Total points per round normally starts off low then settles down as teams get their shit together after the off-season, but is generally pretty variable.

This trend of lower salaries and higher points both contribute to low magic number, and happens every year. MN started at nearly 15,000 but hasn't been above 14,000 since round 1.

Interesting!

So correct me if Im wrong, but given the formula for pricing uses the MN as a multiplier on the most recent 5 games, if the MN is decreasing (and does so in a similar way every year) this means, all else equal, prices rises are now smaller than they otherwise would beat the start of the year, for any given series of scores.

Eg I just plugged Youngs scores in. He makes $65k this week (up $73k overall) if the MN had been stable at 15,000 whereas his actual rise this week was $58k (up $59 overall).

Seeing plenty of Taupau mentions. He was in my top 3 players I wanted for R12 with Bateman and Lolo but we’ve now got 9 weeks of form guys... he’s averaging 43mins. Just bothers me maybe more than it should

GreenMachine wrote:Seeing plenty of Taupau mentions. He was in my top 3 players I wanted for R12 with Bateman and Lolo but we’ve now got 9 weeks of form guys... he’s averaging 43mins. Just bothers me maybe more than it should

I agree re Taupau. I think I'll trade him in round 12 but Manly have a few injuries in the front row atm which might see Taupau playing bigger minutes even though it hasn't happened so far when there were injuries but one can hope. If he plays an extra 10 minutes in round 10 then he becomes an early pick for me but if he stays at mid 40's minutes I'll wait. I'm going to wait re Taumalolo as well because with a b/e of 66 I'm hoping he has a quiet game v the Eels. Having said that with the way the Eels are playing Taumalolo could go boom in round 10 & easily outscore his b/e.

Interested to see what happens with the Panthers this week.

Something has to change there surely.

White Lightning wrote:

I agree re Taupau. I think I'll trade him in round 12 but Manly have a few injuries in the front row atm which might see Taupau playing bigger minutes even though it hasn't happened so far when there were injuries but one can hope. If he plays an extra 10 minutes in round 10 then he becomes an early pick for me but if he stays at mid 40's minutes I'll wait. I'm going to wait re Taumalolo as well because with a b/e of 66 I'm hoping he has a quiet game v the Eels. Having said that with the way the Eels are playing Taumalolo could go boom in round 10 & easily outscore his b/e.

Yeah 60odd is really “bottoming out” level for Lolo. Minutes will build up after injury and he can hit that no worries. He can’t get TOO expensive before R12 so can see why people would prioritize a couple of others before him, whether cash generator like Young, or a half - ie ARey/Walker

Here are the rounds that follow origin, and the days turn around to those games.

Round 13
Rabbits vs Knights, Tigers vs Raiders  (2 days after game 1)
Warriors vs Storm (NZ), Sharks vs Eels, Cowboys vs Sea Eagles (3 days after game 1)
Broncos vs Titans, Panthers vs Roosters (4 days after game 1)

Round 15 (game 2 is the standalone weekend, game on a sunday)
Tigers vs Rabbits (4 days after game 2)
Dragons vs Cowboys, Roosters vs Storm (5 days after game 2)

Round 17
Panthers vs Titans, Knights vs Bulldogs (2 days after game 3)
Rabbits vs Sea Eagles, Broncos vs Warriors, Storm vs Sharks (3 days after game 3)
Rooster vs Cowboys, Tigers vs Eels, Dragons vs Raiders (4 days after game 3)


Haven't really sat back and thought about hwo that may affect origin players yet, but immediate thoughts are, Rabbits have a few very short turn arounds and I would think their origin players don't play all those games.

The Storm playing in NZ 3 days after origin 1... Bellamy may leave some Storm players at home for that one..

Knights also have 2 x two day turn arounds so Ponga may be in some doubt for playing both of those. In saying that, players have always said it is easier to back up two days later than 4 days

Taupau is the 10th best averaging FRF/2RF at the moment, and is close enough that you could run with him as a keeper.

Taukeiaho and Klemmer are averaging better, so you can move for them as final team keeper if you want, but with Origin Klemmer may not be the best option for total points.

KBrom also averaging better than Tauapeu now. We all avoided him at the start assumign Stimson would appear, but KBrom just keeps on performing

All Origin players want to back up for their clubs after origin & origin players have said they prefer their club game within 1-2 days post origin as their bodies feel good. It's when the club game is 3-4 days post origin that their bodies start feeling it & that's when they feel the bumps & bruises. The affect on the body from origin & how player's feel physically is backed up by science as well as they've done studies into this.

Camo123 wrote:

Hmm interesting thanks, the lower it gets the worse it makes it sound for picking up one of the expensive HLFs

Munster (779k) - Average 58.3 (priced at 57.7)
Milford (770k) - Average 54.8 (priced at 57.0)
Cleary (710k) - Average 50.4 (priced at 52.6)

Think it depends on whether Papenhuyzen gets a favourable spot in TLT (might cash out Xerri for him) and then I'll see potential for holding bank to do Lawrie to Taupau

I might need to think this through more, so stand to be corrected, but as us say, it 'sounds' worse for picking up guys like the ones you suggest, but actually for most cases its not. The MN affects all player's price and therefore their so-called 'value' equally. Its all relative. The caveat to that would be for those who have played fewer games. E.g. all else equal someone who has played the season averaging 50, would be more expensive that someone who has only played the last few games and average 50 because the first player's price was influenced by the larger MN and the later was not.

TLDR - if you dont mucking round with numbers, disregard

if regular games are anything to go by, their will be no origin players left after the second game.

If Liam Martin gets a start that would be lovely!

White Lightning wrote:All Origin players want to back up for their clubs after origin & origin players have said they prefer their club game within 1-2 days post origin as their bodies feel good. It's when the club game is 3-4 days post origin that their bodies start feeling it & that's when they feel the bumps & bruises. The affect on the body from origin & how player's feel physically is backed up by science as well as they've done studies into this.

An additional game puts players at increased injury risk though, so regardless of science or desire of players, there is that extra risk that fantasy coaches have to take into account.

I think we'll see several players getting a rest, much like last year. Just remains to be seen who those are.

Mitchell Dunn might be worth a look. He was Cowboys best player at the weekend, certainly better than Hess.

Looking at hookers I see Fainu is ranked 13th averaging 42.1. That is pretty impressive considering he's averaging 46 minutes off the bench. If Koroisau is out for a while he'll be coming into my team this week. I reckon if he plays 70+ minutes he'll outscore Taupau & maybe Taumalolo up & including to round 12.

942 this week with Fifi, Captain Cook saving me same as most on here. Up to 2nd.

Initial trades are Burr and Lawrie out for Taupau and Young. Need Taupaus r12 points, and Young is obvious. Main concern is if I grab these two I'll be running Carty or Dearden at half until round 12, worrying.

Wighton seems the best 12 option but I feel its a bit late to grab him, Cleary could be an option but I really don't see him getting dropped for Origin I. Teddy misses too many games. Already have RTS. Maybe Milf since he plays 16.

Grabbing Young and Taupau also leaves me with no more room for 12. Everyone else is either a keeper, a cow or needed for 12... Tough call this week.

So who do people rate more. Young or Papen assuming they both get starting gigs?

I have Garner, Burr, Mahoney, Carty, and Morgan I need to move. Of those the guys most likely to go are Garner and Burr, but I would also feel bad if they just out a 60 this week . Oh also have Will Kennedy.

I have enough cash that I could bring in Smith or Farah, but is it worth waiting on them to get the two explosive cash cows.

Random wrote:So who do people rate more. Young or Papen assuming they both get starting gigs?

Seeing alot of suggestion that Paps starts, but Hughes should be fine (or at worst only miss one week)?

I'm guessing Seve comes back in for Scott.

Waiting on news for Garner, Hughes even Brown possibly finding his way back into the Eels side?
Whens Burnsy due back? is it this week or Rd 11?

Had 959 with Fifi and Captain Arrow. Captain Cook would've got me over the 1000 mark. Up to rank 1708 from 3500 odd (captain cook would've got me up to 780-ish!). Garner and Hughes only main concerns for now with CHT and Brown also stinking as red crosses. Think I will take my 100's when they come and stop trying to chase them with the C. Pick and stick with Captain Cook for the rest of the year I think, form is kicking off now.

GreenMachine wrote:Seeing plenty of Taupau mentions. He was in my top 3 players I wanted for R12 with Bateman and Lolo but we’ve now got 9 weeks of form guys... he’s averaging 43mins. Just bothers me maybe more than it should

The minutes certainly do bother me but with Rhys Martin dropped and looking unlikely for 12 there are only a few big guns worth a look. Unless you want to grab AFB for a discount and hope his body holds up I think you are gonna want Taupau in 12

People focusing on Hudson Young when there is a risk of Tapine coming back early (I think it was reported he's ahead of schedule). Maybe Liam Martin is the better pick because the Panthers seem to have more long term back row injuries which makes Martin's position more secure.