NRL Fantasy 2019 Part 50

White Lightning wrote: It amazes me how many players take their eye off the ball just before catching a pass. I was taught to look at the ball into your hands & you will never drop it. It's the basics & a lot of players just do not do the basics.

Yeah but this is pretty level one thinking in regards to backline catching.

You will notice that almost all players at top level have a quick look to assess d line prior to the ball in their hands, it gives them an extra split second to decide on movements before and after receiving the ball in the moment of attack. To think you need to watch the ball completely into your hands to be able to catch is (as like you said) basics, but really too basic for top NRL level of play.

Maybe ok for hit it up forwards, but please, to think an NRL outside back needs to keep his eye on the ball until he has it in his hands is basically career suicide. (at top level)

WT Winfield wrote:

His average last year was 57 though, which is elite gun level. I gave him no chance of averaging above 55, but proved me wrong.

A 52.3 average is still gun level though. Not sure of the magic number, 14500? He's priced at a 50 average if so.

Aren't many guns playing Rd 12, so I picked him up a couple of weeks ago. Mightn't fit with some people's teams, but could do a lot worse.

Just scares me because last year all his big scores came from when he was playing over 50 minutes.
2018/over 50 minutes(18 games): Avg 61.38
2018/under 50 minutes(6 games): Avg 43.33
2019/over 50 minutes(2 games): Avg 58.5
2019/under 50 minutes(8 games): Avg 50.75

I am just not a fan of his games where he isn't playing at least 50 minutes and he doesn't seem to be doing that this year.

Before SST's 9 last week he was averaging more than Taupau. I think Fifita and Haas will be premier FRF's with Klemmer, SST, Taupau, Twal fighting it out for the 3rd spot. My bet is on SST getting that this year.

StormTrooper96 wrote:

Just scares me because last year all his big scores came from when he was playing over 50 minutes.
2018/over 50 minutes(18 games): Avg 61.38
2018/under 50 minutes(6 games): Avg 43.33
2019/over 50 minutes(2 games): Avg 58.5
2019/under 50 minutes(8 games): Avg 50.75

I am just not a fan of his games where he isn't playing at least 50 minutes and he doesn't seem to be doing that this year.

Before SST's 9 last week he was averaging more than Taupau. I think Fifita and Haas will be premier FRF's with Klemmer, SST, Taupau, Twal fighting it out for the 3rd spot. My bet is on SST getting that this year.

What I like about Taupau is the consistency. Out of all those options he has the highest floor but quite possibly lower ceiling (low of 42). Klemmer low of 35 last week due to massively reduced tackles with blowout (concerning for final few fixtures for Knights which they should dominate); SST has 31 in reduced minutes v Tigers (because blowout??) and 28 in R1 v Rabbitohs (unknown reason) + injury affected 9; Twal has had 35 in R1 (possibly wet weather meant less tackling), 39 v Eels (got smashed no second stint), 42 v Titans with big minutes

Hey guys, long time reader, first time poster. Thankyou for all your insights as of late.

Current Statistics:
Rank: 2617
Trades Remaining: 19
In The Bank: $553-

My Team:
Smith, C
Fifita, A   Haas, P
Crichton, A   Trbojevic, T   Murray, C
Pearce, M   Morgan, M
Nikora, B   Xerri, B
Ponga, K   Tedesco, J   Sivo, M

Mahoney, R   Rein, M   Burgess, S   Taumalolo, J

Young, H   Dearden, T   Ravalawa, M   Papenhuyzen

I feel as if I could really go on a massive run here with my coin in the bank and current situation. Despite this, as it stands I only have six players playing round twelve bar trades. I'm not far off. If I got my captaincy right every week i'd be 453rd. Give me your thoughts on the players mentioned below:

BURGESS: I believe he will rise in value again over the next month with time in the middle with Murray unavailable/rested. I believe he is a keep until round 16. He eventually becomes Klemmer.
MORGAN: Holding out to see who gets named in Origin. I will take whoever is omitted out of Reynolds and Cleary.
SIVO: He goes to Tuivasa-Sheck after round 12. RTS should see minor drops until then, and the complete opposite on Sivo.
XERRI: Becomes Bateman when he returns. I will wait for possibly two price drops before picking him back up. Alternatively, with Tapine back and Leilua out for the season, he may even be named at right centre for the rest of the year, making his return to my team questionable.
REIN: Will become Cook when Peats returns. Getting the timing of this trade right is crucial. I could do it now, though I think holding for round 12 will be more worthwhile.
MAHONEY: Will become Cherry-Evans/Johnson after he returns and loses a little value.
RAVALAWA: Pretty much the reason I signed up, to get peoples thoughts. At this time of the year when everyones teams are forming for the run home, you need a POD. Ravalawa this week will become either Dylan Walker or Waqa Blake. Alternatively, he will become Nick Cotric or Clint Gutherson the following. I could trade him out for literally anyone except for Cook though I see value in these three.

1) Walker is now arguably in a team that is a heap better than '18 and '19. He is also in his favoured position as opposed to five-eighth. He's good for a 15/20, but 33% of his scores in 2017 were above 60. Valued at 376k BE 12 Plays round 12.
2) Blake was a borderline keeper last year with an average of almost 42 and finished the year at 574k. He scores erratic but can go big. Panthers are the sort of team that could really go on a run. Currently valued at 414k BE 35 Plays round 12.
3) Cotric has moved to centre and is valued at 425k. He is currently averaging 30, though you can expect him to make an extra 15 tackles AT LEAST a game now. I think he averages 40 for the rest of the year unless he is moved back to the wing. BE 25 Plays round 12 though could receive an unexpected Origin call up.
4) Gutherson had a shocker and scored 8 against the Storm. This won't happen again this year. He is back around his starting price and I see him back to averaging 45+ by the end of the year. Value 485k BE 43 Plays round 12. Does not offer POD as well as the others.

Whoever I chose could make or break my season. I'll get their round 12 points and I want at least a 100k price rise. There aren't many good cashies around at the moment.
Some players i'll look to get at some stage:

- Daly Cherry-Evans or Shaun Johnson
- Tom Trbojevic
- Jai Arrow
- Ryan Matterson

Thoughts?

I'm not keen on getting round 12 1-hit wonders. My trades are slightly unconventional. 
Capewell and DBrown out
Cotric and ATaylor in

Both Cotric and Taytay are undervalued and will hopefully increase in value by round 18. Both will provide a solid score for round 12. Both will provide some good cover on the bench.

adjhoward1988 wrote:Hey Guys - Any Advice, Trade targets?

Currently sitting 563 Overall

Team:
Cook
Fifita, Haas
Lolo, Arrow, Murray
Cleary, Pierce
Nikora, Xerri
CNK, RTS, Ponga

Mahoney, Rein, Taupau, Young

Herbert, Martin, Deardon, Allan

650K ITB, 17 trades left,

Haven't really ben concentrating too much on the byes, more thinking about it now.

Any input would be appreciated.

Nice rank and team looks good. Hold the trades this week is my advice.

Cotric was in the NSW extended squad last year, right?

Must be a big chance to come in for Game 1

Rippin and Tearin wrote:I forgot how emotionally invested people get in a bunch a lads running around with a ball. It's a beautiful thing

If we did pick him I feel like I'd rather not watch it than cheer for a Qlder. Origin is a special beast

Camo123 wrote:

What I like about Taupau is the consistency. Out of all those options he has the highest floor but quite possibly lower ceiling (low of 42). Klemmer low of 35 last week due to massively reduced tackles with blowout (concerning for final few fixtures for Knights which they should dominate); SST has 31 in reduced minutes v Tigers (because blowout??) and 28 in R1 v Rabbitohs (unknown reason) + injury affected 9; Twal has had 35 in R1 (possibly wet weather meant less tackling), 39 v Eels (got smashed no second stint), 42 v Titans with big minutes

I dont think Taupau will go over an avg of 53 this year unless injury. This is great for your FRF but I think one of those other three will, just not sure which one.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:I forgot how emotionally invested people get in a bunch a lads running around with a ball. It's a beautiful thing

I was going to say the same. It's one thing that its marketed well for fans to buy into it, but it's another to think that these professional players sleep with their representative jerseys under their pillow.

Fifita played as good for the Blues and he played for Tongan. Brad Thorn was happy to rip into the Australians when it suited him as a professional player.

sajjos wrote:

I was going to say the same. It's one thing that its marketed well for fans to buy into it, but it's another to think that these professional players sleep with their representative jerseys under their pillow.

Fifita played as good for the Blues and he played for Tongan. Brad Thorn was happy to rip into the Australians when it suited him as a professional player.

That's a crock. If it was marketing the attempts to copy it would have succeeded

WT Winfield wrote:

Spin it however you want, but it would be NSW management getting flogged for picking a Qld'er.

I have faith that they won't pick him anyway. It's not as though our management is ignorant about the situation like some fans and media.

They probably would've picked him last year if they were going to anyway.

If they don't pick him this year they might get away with it but next year he will be running the Roosters as the dominant half back. And if he is playing well and doesn't get picked then he might be tempted to go to court for loss of earnings specially since he is been blocked for playing for Qld.

StormTrooper96 wrote:

Just scares me because last year all his big scores came from when he was playing over 50 minutes.
2018/over 50 minutes(18 games): Avg 61.38
2018/under 50 minutes(6 games): Avg 43.33
2019/over 50 minutes(2 games): Avg 58.5
2019/under 50 minutes(8 games): Avg 50.75

I am just not a fan of his games where he isn't playing at least 50 minutes and he doesn't seem to be doing that this year.

Before SST's 9 last week he was averaging more than Taupau. I think Fifita and Haas will be premier FRF's with Klemmer, SST, Taupau, Twal fighting it out for the 3rd spot. My bet is on SST getting that this year.

Bit of a drop off those 6 games under 50 mins last year. I'm still confident he'll maintain his gun status though and won't need to trade him after the bye.

I looked at SST a few weeks ago and I'm doubtful that he can maintain. I started with him last year and was very disappointed. Think I had KBrom too (or the year before?) and was also disappointing, think that's why no one talked about him this year.

Last year SST averaged 38.8 in 44.5 mins.
This year his minutes are up to 52.75 and was averaging 54.4 until last week. Helped along with 2 tries, so I can see him falling back to a sub 50 player even with the minutes increase. His average is 49.3 now with the injured game, so I'm thinking he probably peaked.

Chewie wrote:I'm not keen on getting round 12 1-hit wonders. My trades are slightly unconventional. 
Capewell and DBrown out
Cotric and ATaylor in

Both Cotric and Taytay are undervalued and will hopefully increase in value by round 18. Both will provide a solid score for round 12. Both will provide some good cover on the bench.

I like this thinking Chewie, I'm quite interested in Cotric but not sure I can bring myself to upgrade a cow to him. Lawrie to Cotric gives me a lot of cash but would need him to match Lawrie scores to be a success in my head.

my tv broke wrote:

WT Winfield wrote:

For who and by who?

For the fans, anyone that knows the story doesn't want some Qld'er playing for us. Qld might be fine with NSWelshmen playing for them (Inglis), but we don't need them.

sounds like you guys are just going to have to get used to it

I think it’s time we formed a break away forum mate. Queenslanders only, obviously we call it Super Fanatics.

#quexit

ParraMagic wrote:Hey guys, long time reader, first time poster. Thankyou for all your insights as of late.

Current Statistics:
Rank: 2617
Trades Remaining: 19
In The Bank: $553-

My Team:
Smith, C
Fifita, A   Haas, P
Crichton, A   Trbojevic, T   Murray, C
Pearce, M   Morgan, M
Nikora, B   Xerri, B
Ponga, K   Tedesco, J   Sivo, M

Mahoney, R   Rein, M   Burgess, S   Taumalolo, J

Young, H   Dearden, T   Ravalawa, M   Papenhuyzen

I feel as if I could really go on a massive run here with my coin in the bank and current situation. Despite this, as it stands I only have six players playing round twelve bar trades. I'm not far off. If I got my captaincy right every week i'd be 453rd. Give me your thoughts on the players mentioned below:

BURGESS: I believe he will rise in value again over the next month with time in the middle with Murray unavailable/rested. I believe he is a keep until round 16. He eventually becomes Klemmer.
MORGAN: Holding out to see who gets named in Origin. I will take whoever is omitted out of Reynolds and Cleary.
SIVO: He goes to Tuivasa-Sheck after round 12. RTS should see minor drops until then, and the complete opposite on Sivo.
XERRI: Becomes Bateman when he returns. I will wait for possibly two price drops before picking him back up. Alternatively, with Tapine back and Leilua out for the season, he may even be named at right centre for the rest of the year, making his return to my team questionable.
REIN: Will become Cook when Peats returns. Getting the timing of this trade right is crucial. I could do it now, though I think holding for round 12 will be more worthwhile.
MAHONEY: Will become Cherry-Evans/Johnson after he returns and loses a little value.
RAVALAWA: Pretty much the reason I signed up, to get peoples thoughts. At this time of the year when everyones teams are forming for the run home, you need a POD. Ravalawa this week will become either Dylan Walker or Waqa Blake. Alternatively, he will become Nick Cotric or Clint Gutherson the following. I could trade him out for literally anyone except for Cook though I see value in these three.

1) Walker is now arguably in a team that is a heap better than '18 and '19. He is also in his favoured position as opposed to five-eighth. He's good for a 15/20, but 33% of his scores in 2017 were above 60. Valued at 376k BE 12 Plays round 12.
2) Blake was a borderline keeper last year with an average of almost 42 and finished the year at 574k. He scores erratic but can go big. Panthers are the sort of team that could really go on a run. Currently valued at 414k BE 35 Plays round 12.
3) Cotric has moved to centre and is valued at 425k. He is currently averaging 30, though you can expect him to make an extra 15 tackles AT LEAST a game now. I think he averages 40 for the rest of the year unless he is moved back to the wing. BE 25 Plays round 12 though could receive an unexpected Origin call up.
4) Gutherson had a shocker and scored 8 against the Storm. This won't happen again this year. He is back around his starting price and I see him back to averaging 45+ by the end of the year. Value 485k BE 43 Plays round 12. Does not offer POD as well as the others.

Whoever I chose could make or break my season. I'll get their round 12 points and I want at least a 100k price rise. There aren't many good cashies around at the moment.
Some players i'll look to get at some stage:

- Daly Cherry-Evans or Shaun Johnson
- Tom Trbojevic
- Jai Arrow
- Ryan Matterson

Thoughts?

The other option is wait a week on selling Rava and have another look at your options.

hymenbustas wrote:I need to punt one of the following guys for Tolo:

Dearden: slow burning cow, hasn't peaked yet
Young/Martin: Need them for rd 12 and only just got them, need them for cash generation
Lomax: In a poor attacking team where the coach is fucking his confidence by constantly moving him but he's playing FB this week so maybe his calling? Leaning on holding
Xerri: Plodding along but could go ham when SJ returns? Leaning on trading him to tolo

Thoughts?

Xerri or Deardon for me.

Young Martin may as well be holds for 12 at least.
Lomax with the FB gig is pretty appealing I think.

Random wrote:Worth dumping almost $200k to swap my NPR of Kennedy to Cotric?

I mean I could hold the cash and straight swap for a cheapie/NPR playing next week. Then the cash means I can upgrade Cartwright, Mahoney, Rein, Xerri when needed.

Id keep the cash to upgrade rein. When peats is back rein is an urgent trade. Assuming peats goes straight back into the team

sets wrote:

White Lightning wrote: It amazes me how many players take their eye off the ball just before catching a pass. I was taught to look at the ball into your hands & you will never drop it. It's the basics & a lot of players just do not do the basics.

Yeah but this is pretty level one thinking in regards to backline catching.

You will notice that almost all players at top level have a quick look to assess d line prior to the ball in their hands, it gives them an extra split second to decide on movements before and after receiving the ball in the moment of attack. To think you need to watch the ball completely into your hands to be able to catch is (as like you said) basics, but really too basic for top NRL level of play.

Maybe ok for hit it up forwards, but please, to think an NRL outside back needs to keep his eye on the ball until he has it in his hands is basically career suicide. (at top level)

To be fair, in Xerri’s case, it’s career suicide if he doesn’t. His first and last game were both horrible for it.

sets wrote:

Yeah but this is pretty level one thinking in regards to backline catching.

You will notice that almost all players at top level have a quick look to assess d line prior to the ball in their hands, it gives them an extra split second to decide on movements before and after receiving the ball in the moment of attack. To think you need to watch the ball completely into your hands to be able to catch is (as like you said) basics, but really too basic for top NRL level of play.

Maybe ok for hit it up forwards, but please, to think an NRL outside back needs to keep his eye on the ball until he has it in his hands is basically career suicide. (at top level)

Yeah man, this is for sure the case in Rugby. The great players know what they are going to do before they catch the ball, in part cause they have had a peak, cause that split second extra time is often the difference that separates the good from the great. They rely on their hand eye coordination to get the job done when catching the ball. Every now and then even the greatest players shell one. Xerri on the other hand. Kid needs to do some ball work. Either that or he has had a shitty run of luck. Starting to become an issue though!