NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 1 - Offseason Edition

On Carrigan starting at lock. I read an article a couple of months ago saying that he was going to be promoted to the leadership group & that he'd start at lock. At the time there wasn't much discussion about it & it was sort of swept under the carpet. I don't know whether people didn't believe it or people wanted it intentionally kept quiet for fantasy/sc purposes i.e they didn't want the masses knowing this. From memory I think I posted it on here.

Carrigan is def in the leadership group. He will be captain within a couple of years.

Leave him out at your peril.

https://www.nrl.com/news/2020/01/20/haas-development-to-continue-in-2020-seibold/

Last 10 games he averaged 73.5 points in 65 minutes. Only 3 offloads in 10 games.

What I like is that when you hear a coach say 'elite level fit' about a player I know that if injuries occur they are the players that end up staying on all game or coming back on early.

I was about to post that. I knew that type of article would be up soon haha.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:Melbourne Storm have updated their squad to the required 29 players

- Max King (lock)
- Nicho Hynes (fullback/half)
- Isaac Lumelume (centre)
- Darryn Schonig (prop)
- Aaron Pene (prop

Does anyone know anything about the last 3?

- Isaac Lumelume (centre)
They signed him from Eels last year. Typicaly Fijian Built Motherfucker
- Darryn Schonig (prop)
Went to school with Darryn. Just a big meathead of a prop. Just a run big body, run straight tackle hard kind of guy

Iron Mike wrote:Leave him out at your peril.

https://www.nrl.com/news/2020/01/20/haas-development-to-continue-in-2020-seibold/

Last 10 games he averaged 73.5 points in 65 minutes. Only 3 offloads in 10 games.

What I like is that when you hear a coach say 'elite level fit' about a player I know that if injuries occur they are the players that end up staying on all game or coming back on early.

I read in nrlsctalk that in pre season fitness last week Haas was keeping up with the backs. What a beast.

Iron Mike wrote:Leave him out at your peril.

https://www.nrl.com/news/2020/01/20/haas-development-to-continue-in-2020-seibold/

Last 10 games he averaged 73.5 points in 65 minutes. Only 3 offloads in 10 games.

What I like is that when you hear a coach say 'elite level fit' about a player I know that if injuries occur they are the players that end up staying on all game or coming back on early.

"Development of an offload"

Sounds like your typical Taumololo off season piece.

Lumelume smashed some bloke on the wing one game for easts last year and stood over him and goes (something that sounded like) "yeh get it bitch!"

I liked him from that point on hah

StormTrooper96 wrote:

"Development of an offload"

Sounds like your typical Taumololo off season piece.

Cowboys and Broncos play twice in first 5 rounds will be good to see both Taumololo and Hass go at it. Would love to have both in fantasy.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:Melbourne Storm have updated their squad to the required 29 players

- Max King (lock)
- Nicho Hynes (fullback/half)
- Isaac Lumelume (centre)
- Darryn Schonig (prop)
- Aaron Pene (prop

Does anyone know anything about the last 3?

Who's Nacho Hymen ? and the dude named Shlong. There's a joke in there somewhere but I could have to ban myself. Might put that one in the funny names thread.

Titans starting prices in 2020
Jai Arrow $788,000 2RF
Mitch Rein $678,000 HOK
Tyrone Roberts $673,000 HLF
Kevin Proctor $641,000 2RF
Nathan Peats $612,000 HOK
Jarrod Wallace $604,000 FRF
Ryan James $578,000 FRF, 2RF
Moeaki Fotuaika $578,000 FRF
Brian Kelly $509,000 CTR
Jai Whitbread $508,000 FRF, 2RF
Phillip Sami $501,000 WFB
Ashley Taylor $495,000 HLF
Bryce Cartwright $479,000 2RF
Sam Stone $475,000 2RF
Alexander Brimson $462,000 WFB, HLF
Tyrone Peachey $446,000 2RF, CTR
Shannon Boyd $430,000 FRF
Dale Copley $408,000 CTR, WFB
Anthony Don $368,000 WFB
Kallum Watkins $316,000 CTR
Keegan Hipgrave $298,000 2RF
Jonus Pearson $263,000 WFB
Will Matthews $246,000 2RF
Leilani Latu $246,000 FRF
Tanah Boyd $246,000 HLF
Darius Farmer $228,000 2RF
Treymain Spry $228,000 CTR

Ryan James price bumped up about 90k

Watkins worth considering as a cheap starting centre and normally players are better with a full year off ACL injury

Boyd will be dirt cheap if he nibbles his way into the halves role.
Hipgrave is cheap for someone who can grab 35, could make a little bit of money.

Has there been any consensus on this years magic number? Knowing Failhub's exact formula with the adjustment factor etc would be ideal, but we will know all the player prices in the next few days. What we really need is a workable magic number so we can convert a players price into their priced average to compare against their previous stats/predicted stats.

Lone scout has mentioned in his articles that David Fifita is priced at 47. This would give a magic number of 14468; if he has rounded it to 47 it could be anywhere from 46.55 to 47.45 giving a range of magic number from 14330 -14607. He also menitioned Isaako and Brailey with ranges of 14514 - 14928 and 14571 - 15066 respectively. If my assumptions are correct, that would mean the magic number would have to be between 14571 and 14607.

Measuring it another way, I've taken the prices of the four teams published so far and removed players with less than 10 games and outliers like Brailey, Tapine and Isaako and I get 14412. If I leave those guys in I get 14478.

TL;DR I'm going to use a magic number of 14500 for now unless someone comes up with something better.

Mulvy wrote:Has there been any consensus on this years magic number? Knowing Failhub's exact formula with the adjustment factor etc would be ideal, but we will know all the player prices in the next few days. What we really need is a workable magic number so we can convert a players price into their priced average to compare against their previous stats/predicted stats.

Lone scout has mentioned in his articles that David Fifita is priced at 47. This would give a magic number of 14468; if he has rounded it to 47 it could be anywhere from 46.55 to 47.45 giving a range of magic number from 14330 -14607. He also menitioned Isaako and Brailey with ranges of 14514 - 14928 and 14571 - 15066 respectively. If my assumptions are correct, that would mean the magic number would have to be between 14571 and 14607.

Measuring it another way, I've taken the prices of the four teams published so far and removed players with less than 10 games and outliers like Brailey, Tapine and Isaako and I get 14412. If I leave those guys in I get 14478.

TL;DR I'm going to use a magic number of 14500 for now unless someone comes up with something better.

In the Broncos article they listed Fifita as a player of interest at 680k. They also mentioned his b/e would be 47 to start the year. I'm using 14468 based on that but 14500 is as good an estimate as any

EDIT: I should have read more than the first paragraph of your post. Leaving this here so everyone knows I'm an idiot

I've got most players with a Magic Number of 14500 -ish
With players like Haas, Brimson, Isaako, RJames, and Brailey getting some extra fanhub fat on their pricetag.
Haas because of high ownership?
And the other because of perceived fantasy potential?

Applying this to the Haas argument, 999k/14500 = 68.9. He's either going to get it or fall short or in the event he exceeds it, it won't be by much.

I'm in the Milchy camp of he's not an auto pick. I don't think you lose anything captain wise going starting with Cook. In the first half of the year before origin he averaged 67.5. He averaged 62.7 across the season so there is potentially some upside, depends how they price him. I'm not saying I won't get Haas, just that he's not an auto pick.

Random wrote:

Its comments like these that make me wish you didnt lose the avatar punishment.

Hahaha I'll be dumb enough to challenge you again this year too

Chewie wrote:I've got most players with a Magic Number of 14500 -ish
With players like Haas, Brimson, Isaako, RJames, and Brailey getting some extra fanhub fat on their pricetag.
Haas because of high ownership?
And the other because of perceived fantasy potential?

I think they are choosing players deemed to be auto picks or close to and adding a premium to their price, which I quite like. It means less cookie cutter teams and the more experienced fantasy players having an edge

All of those players with the price bump so far would have been very high ownership

Mulvy wrote:Applying this to the Haas argument, 999k/14500 = 68.9. He's either going to get it or fall short or in the event he exceeds it, it won't be by much.

I'm in the Milchy camp of he's not an auto pick. I don't think you lose anything captain wise going starting with Cook. In the first half of the year before origin he averaged 67.5. He averaged 62.7 across the season so there is potentially some upside, depends how they price him. I'm not saying I won't get Haas, just that he's not an auto pick.

I see Haas with very little upside and all downside. It will take a lot to change for me to start the year with him