NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 7

Welshy wrote:It isn’t annoying Carrigan likely entering a huge number of teams with the Lodge news, had him since day dot, just means the risk is shared more.

Drinkwater all over again

Current draft 217k itb for centres

Friend
Knight carrigan
Tolo arrow kikau
Keary Taylor
Chritchon smith-sheilds
Drink water papa Lomax

Lucy Levi grant Koro

Nuffies x4

Current draft 217k itb for centres

Friend
Knight carrigan
Tolo arrow kikau
Keary Taylor
Chritchon smith-sheilds
Drink water papa Lomax

Lucy Levi grant Koro

Nuffies x4

robelgordo wrote:Today seems like an insane number of injuries for a non-game day.

3-4 days after some of these guys first competitive games of the year. Probably a bit of extra tightness and it ends up triggering an injury

I have had Cleary in every team I’ve made and never questioned it. But looking into his fantasy scores for last year leaves a lot to be desired- quite a lot more 30s and 40s than I expected, and a bunch of games being saved by tries. That 4 try bonanza in the last round increased his average by about 3-4 points also. Do people expect him to drastically pick up with Maloney gone? Looking at his averages across all statistics, I can only see him hovering around 50 points, but even less if the tries dry up. Paying almost 55 I am starting to think there are better options. I have got a serious case of cold feet suddenly!

Edit: Cleary averaged 45.2 in games he didn’t score a try in

Rabbits21 wrote:
Thanks for the feedback.

Ditch one of Watkins, Shiba for who?

There aren’t too many cheap centre options right now apart from Reimis Smith or paying a bit more for Suli but if Suli is gonna average 30ish like he has the last 3 seasons I don’t see why paying the extra 65k is a good thing especially as I reckon Watkins or Shiba can average close to 30 as well.

Tbh I don’t really care about centre unless a really good DPP option comes up where I am certain a guy like Capewell priced at 30 is gonna get 80mins every week.

I worry if I spend more to get Burns in again that he’s just gonna break down on me again like last year!

With the Lodge injury I think TPJ moves to the middle which really benefits Fifita, he should get really big minutes. I can’t bare to watch Fifita playing big minutes and not have him in my team.

I’ve got a feeling Joe Ofa moves to to starting prop now. I think TPJ and Fifi rotate the starting 2RF dependent on their opponent, with TPJ also covering lock for Carrigan. That makes me think TPJ starts and plays the first 30-odd at 2RF, then Fifi comes on to play the rest of the game. That still gives Fifi 50 which is enough for him to rack up some points!

You’re right, centre is a shite position. I think one of the Tits you drop, but it’ll be dependent on TLT on which one that is.

Pookus McFly wrote:I have had Cleary in every team I’ve made and never questioned it. But looking into his fantasy scores for last year leaves a lot to be desired- quite a lot more 30s and 40s than I expected, and a bunch of games being saved by tries. That 4 try bonanza in the last round increased his average by about 3-4 points also. Do people expect him to drastically pick up with Maloney gone? Looking at his averages across all statistics, I can only see him hovering around 50 points, but even less if the tries dry up. Paying almost 55 I am starting to think there are better options. I have got a serious case of cold feet suddenly!

Edit: Cleary averaged 45.2 in games he didn’t score a try in

He should improve as kicking is solely on him, as well as playmaking. He takes his runs too so tries shouldn’t dry up.

Hey all

First post of the year for the American in Portugal. I’m excited for another season. I’ll get to watch half the season in the States and the other half in Portugal.

Here’s where I’m at now

Friend
(C) Haas Carrigan
Lolo Leilua DFifita
Moses H2O
Crichton Smith-Shields
Papi Lomax Brimson

Stimson Luai Koro BBrailey
Musgrove Magoulis Rodwell 1x 228

110 ITB

Any blind spots?
Worth upgrading centers?
Worth upgrading somebody to send Luai to NPR’s?

Thanks again!

Pookus McFly wrote:I have had Cleary in every team I’ve made and never questioned it. But looking into his fantasy scores for last year leaves a lot to be desired- quite a lot more 30s and 40s than I expected, and a bunch of games being saved by tries. That 4 try bonanza in the last round increased his average by about 3-4 points also. Do people expect him to drastically pick up with Maloney gone? Looking at his averages across all statistics, I can only see him hovering around 50 points, but even less if the tries dry up. Paying almost 55 I am starting to think there are better options. I have got a serious case of cold feet suddenly!

Edit: Cleary averaged 45.2 in games he didn’t score a try in

I haven't had Cleary in any of my drafts, partly because I think the Panthers will struggle. Alternating between SJ, Moses and, gulp, ARey as gun half.

SJ is really consistent despite his reputation and the fanhub bump is entirely taken up by an injury-impacted 7. He also played like trash last year but still scored well.

Moses, I'm undecided on. Parra have a great draw for attacking stats, but he's far more up and down that SJ and I wonder if Brown will be more involved this year.

ARey - tough opening draw which eases up around Round 5, then plays first bye like Moses and probably has the best base (KMs and goals) of all of them, i just wish he'd run more. But if he ran more he'd get injured. (His injury record actually isn't all that bad the past few years, but he has got crocked EVERY TIME I've bought him mid-season.)

trubluwanksta wrote:

I’ve got a feeling Joe Ofa moves to to starting prop now. I think TPJ and Fifi rotate the starting 2RF dependent on their opponent, with TPJ also covering lock for Carrigan. That makes me think TPJ starts and plays the first 30-odd at 2RF, then Fifi comes on to play the rest of the game. That still gives Fifi 50 which is enough for him to rack up some points!

You’re right, centre is a shite position. I think one of the Tits you drop, but it’ll be dependent on TLT on which one that is.

If TPJ plays the first 30 in the second row and Fifita is on the bench or vice versa then it still leaves the lock position open for Carrigan.

Ofa isn’t in the good books up there at the moment MTB and a couple of others were saying.

I’m much more confident with Lodge injured that Carrigan can get 45mins and that should be enough to see him make enough money and sometimes he may even play more minutes than that. I know there are big raps on Carrigan up there.

Put it this way, if Carrigan gets the 13 jersey he’s in my side.

Khany wrote:Agreed. No need whatsoever to link this to a club.

Yeah, he played one trial game for the Warriors back in 2005, prior to that was a Union player for BOP. All of it irrelevant though.... tragic stuff.

Camo123 wrote:Dylan Edwards suffers syndesmosis injury, out for up to 2 months

Cue the not another one gif

Thats a shame for him.... it kinda makes things easier for me. I had Edwards reluctantly locked into my team....(after last year)... Guess Im looking for a new WFB. Drinkwater probably my go now.

13CokeHeads wrote:Re Warriors;
Is Sam Curran an edge or a middle?
Could Milne snag that 2rf spot if papalii moves to the middle rotation? I feel Blair is a little bit of a waste there. Also why would they move fisi from the wing? He is the best under crossfield kicks

Who knows, Kearney doesnt have a fucken clue.... worst thing is the club (I think) is pretty much writing off this year, so I expect Kearney back next year regardless when they will be able to spend a bit of money and hopefully put a decent (competitive?) middle together.

Teeth Eater wrote:

Yep, it's not common anymore to call a spade a spade but 100% agree with you. Reading between the lines it sounds like another guy getting mucked around by the family court, but how in a billion years that could translate to doing this to your own children... no way to ever justify or forgive that. What a piece of shit. Such a sad, sad story.

And yeah, the "NRL" connection really irritated me too. In the very same article I read it actually mentioned he never played NRL but played a trial for the NZ Warriors once. Yet that's apparently enough to call him an ex-NRL player? So pathetic from these news outlets...

I have nothing to base this on in terms of this particular case, but I have seen what psychotic breaks can do to people. As I say, this may not have been such an episode, but for me its the only possible way a situation like this gets explained...

SoylentGreen wrote:

3-4 days after some of these guys first competitive games of the year. Probably a bit of extra tightness and it ends up triggering an injury

Yep. It's like the first work out after Xmas and New Years only doing Liver training haha

Pookus McFly wrote:I have had Cleary in every team I’ve made and never questioned it. But looking into his fantasy scores for last year leaves a lot to be desired- quite a lot more 30s and 40s than I expected, and a bunch of games being saved by tries. That 4 try bonanza in the last round increased his average by about 3-4 points also. Do people expect him to drastically pick up with Maloney gone? Looking at his averages across all statistics, I can only see him hovering around 50 points, but even less if the tries dry up. Paying almost 55 I am starting to think there are better options. I have got a serious case of cold feet suddenly!

Edit: Cleary averaged 45.2 in games he didn’t score a try in

I'll admit, I havent done any analysis on him, but here's a start:

He averages .4 tries per game across 4 seasons which suggest its not a fluke that he gets across the line. So I wouldnt consider the 45 as a floor, he will get attacking stats from tries, but I guess the question is how much?

Then there are the KMs. Thats the kicker with him this year right? (excuse the pun). Last year Maloney averaged 240 per game. Am I right in recalling 20KM per point and so therefore 12 points? If so, you'd expect Cleary to take the bulk of those, perhaps 150 extra KM? That would take his KMs to ~370 per game, the same as Moses last year so seems reasonable.... That would be an extra 7 or 8 points on his last years average.

Pulling all that together and perhaps being a little conservative, he should be a couple points undervalued at a minimum (more if he can maintain his attacking stats). In a position where you cant find that anywhere else for a gun (well at least I cant see it), I think that makes Cleary a pretty decent option.

The other kicker for is its a safety play. If you are considering running a risky 2nd half (Man, Luia etc) then its one way of ensuring, as much as you can, that you will only have to deal with one busted half early in the season....

At this stage, Clearly is locked into my team.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Who knows, Kearney doesnt have a fucken clue.... worst thing is the club (I think) is pretty much writing off this year, so I expect Kearney back next year regardless when they will be able to spend a bit of money and hopefully put a decent (competitive?) middle together.

Yup. They're pulling a Miami Dolphins which fucks me off as a season pass holder.

Warriors have the worst pack in the comp. Josh Curran is built more like a lock than a prop. He'll probably get into the 17 now with Bunty out and Lisone still on the outer.

Also, Egan won't be much of a pick behind a weak pack even if he gets the minutes. He might have some value if he can tackle constantly.

I hope the new owners (Autex) sack Kearney, promote Brown, and release majority of the dead weight.

rhinoceroo wrote:

SJ is really consistent despite his reputation and the fanhub bump is entirely taken up by an injury-impacted 7. He also played like trash last year but still scored well.

I love SJ. He should go well. Still have a strong pack to play behind and Nikora to put through holes. There's more uncertainty around him though. He plays next to an establishes half in Townsend and he's been more injury prone lately. Cleary is the safer bet at the same price. Could do a swap during Origin though

Rapture_NRL wrote:

Yup. They're pulling a Miami Dolphins which fucks me off as a season pass holder.

Warriors have the worst pack in the comp. Josh Curran is built more like a lock than a prop. He'll probably get into the 17 now with Bunty out and Lisone still on the outer.

Also, Egan won't be much of a pick behind a weak pack even if he gets the minutes. He might have some value if he can tackle constantly.

I hope the new owners (Autex) sack Kearney, promote Brown, and release majority of the dead weight.

It really is a disaster of a club right now, an always kicking shit up hill in terms of trying to recruit. Spend overs on basically everyone, but at least in the past they have got quality players. Now they pay overs for mid to lower tier guys.

And now they are going with a complete strategy change. I guess you have to commend Kearney on that? But I cant help but feel all it really is, is confirmation that what he has been trying to implement over the last 3 years has been a complete failure.

At least you support them now bro. I used to own several f the 1995 original framed jerseys (waiting for the day when they would final win the NRL). I flogged them off ages ago and used the profits to back against the Warriors on the TAB. Im now a millionaire!!

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Yeah, he played one trial game for the Warriors back in 2005, prior to that was a Union player for BOP. All of it irrelevant though.... tragic stuff.

As misleading as the “NRL star” angle is, the biggest issue I have with the reporting is framing it as a tragedy... because although it is, it gives the impression that this was an accident or that a mass murderer is also a victim. Some of the reporting might be because the police haven’t said anything official yet, but even ABC last night has footage of him being a great dad etc, which is just as irresponsible until all the facts are known. The only time we report criminals with an empathetic slant is middle aged white dudes slaughtering their own family.

Anyway, apologies for the non-footy rant but had to get it off my chest because it’s been bothering me since I first heard the news.