NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 7

Iron Mike wrote:Just had another look at things trying to reduce players priced between 30 and 40 points (roughly 450K to 600K). Trying to get back to cows and guns team.

Api (493K but obvious value)
Hass (C), Carrigan
Lolo, NBrown, DFifita
Cleary (VC), Mann
Capewell, Lomax
Papenhuyzen, Drinkwater, Aekins

JWilliams (472K but obvious value if starting lock), BBrailey, Musgrove, Magoulias

Luai, Curran, Rudolf, Leleisiuao.

Are you joining the leagues champ ?

Welshy wrote:
Probably a solid nailed on 55 point captain play in first 6 weeks away from being a very appealing team. Too many ups and downs from your Gun half’s to get that and too many options would leave my head spinning. Might be Friend but I’m worried about Verrils to nail him as captain option

Agreed, would probably throw the C on DCE but the floor scares me

Enjoying the thread so far
Pools, Wages, Politics, Player firsts, Team changes every hour .....It has everything

Now for a wall of text haha

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Just something to add which may have been touched on
Base price Rookie bench forwards V Rookie Backs

Predicting minutes let alone a rookie off the bench is tough.
The thing is if you miss these bench forwards you can pick them up easier than where a rookie back who nabs 2 tries gets expensive fast.

If you miss the back, do you buy them in the following week and hope they score a couple more tries for you, or pass on them?
You are behind the 8 ball now and your expectations are high based on this.
Common mistakes are you buy them in then they score a few low scores for you, so then you trade only for them to score high again...
We all make this mistake and you see people get frustrated when this happens to them resulting in 2 wasted trades and no $$$ gain.

Sivo is a good example here from last year.
Chances are they will get a few weeks themselves to start the year so worth a gamble each week to be honest, regardless who they are they just need pass the eye test and some luck.
If after 2-3 weeks they look like a dud, there is probably someone else you can swap out easy enough, but at least you owned a lotto ticket.

A forwards points are more reliable but they need a base amount of minutes to put up a score to give you the cash boost early on or hope for an injury or a role change.
Though it doesn't help cash generation when they score well every other week and slowly burn.
Who knows if the coach sits them on the bench most of the game the following week and kills their scoring. It doesn't effect real life much but it sure does effect Fantasy.
Sure you might start with a player for 4 weeks with a minor increase on the hope they bust a big score, but these role players are usually to run hard and make tackles so steady and slow points.
They are less likely to be on the end of a try scoring pass.
They rely on a role changes (which simply means extra minutes of more running hard and tackling) and they start scoring big because of this
Remember you can easily trade them in too once this happens as you don't get an award for all those who started with them

Mentally as well, a back plays 80mins each week so nothing really to look at further, its just a calculated gamble as their points are very boom bust. They play the same role each week, its mostly luck here.
So start with the cheap back and see what happens, you can always grab that bench forward later

Also don't be afraid of playing them in your starting WFB, you aren't paying much (Points per $$ as well) and as long as you spend the saved money elsewhere well, then they can easily score as good as a mid ranged WFB.

TLDR So start with a cheap back and see what happens, you can always grab that bench forward later and don't be afraid of starting them in CTR/WFB position to start the year

eyipftwari wrote:im flirting with the idea of morgan more and more based off the 20/40 being in his wheel house and the cowboys having a better run this year thoughts on that ?

How many 20/40s do you think Morgan will kick?

If he gets one a month, that is 1 point extra for his average. I doubt anyone will be kicking 20/40s every week

I wasn't going to start with David Fifita and Carrigan in my team, but the Lodge injury has helped their promotion into my squad. I may be starting with 4 Broncos this season

Got to love the Broncos

Boozecluez wrote:Enjoying the thread so far
Pools, Wages, Politics, Player firsts, Team changes every hour .....It has everything

Now for a wall of text haha

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Just something to add which may have been touched on
Base price Rookie bench forwards V Rookie Backs

Predicting minutes let alone a rookie off the bench is tough.
The thing is if you miss these backs you can pick them up easier than where a rookie back who nabs 2 tries gets expensive fast.

If you miss the back, do you buy them in the following week and hope they score a couple more tries for you, or pass on them?
You are behind the 8 ball now and your expectations are high based on this.
Common mistakes are you buy them in then they score a few low scores for you, so then you trade only for them to score high again...
We all makes this mistake and you see people get frustrated when this happens to them resulting in 2 wasted trades and no $$$ gain.

Sivo is a good example here from last year.
Chances are they will get a few weeks themselves to start the year so worth a gamble each week to be honest, regardless who they are they just need pass the eye test and some luck.
If after 2-3 weeks they look like a dud, there is probably someone else you can swap out easy enough, but at least you owned a lotto ticket.

A forwards points are more reliable but they need a base amount of minutes to put up a score to give you the cash boost early on or hope for an injury or a role change.
Though it doesn't help cash generation when they score well every other week and result in a slow burn or sitting on the bench most of the game the following week and killing their scoring.
Sure you might start with a player for 4 weeks with a minor increase on the hope they bust a big score, but if this is not a fluke and due to their role changes (Extra minutes) and they start scoring big because of this, I can easily trade them in too. You don't get an award for starting with them

Mentally as well, a back plays 80mins each week so nothing really to look at further, its just a calculated gamble as their points are very boom bust. They play the same role each week, its mostly luck here.
So start with the cheap back and see what happens, you can always grab that bench forward later

Also don't be afraid of playing them in your starting WFB, you aren't paying much (Points per $$ as well) and as long as you spend the saved money elsewhere well, then they can easily score as good as a mid ranged WFB.

TLDR So start with a cheap back and see what happens, you can always grab that bench forward later and don't be afraid of starting them in CTR/WFB position to start the year

That's good stuff Booze! You're so right about missing the boat on those try scoring rookie backs, it has happened to me a few times.
Last year Sivo scored 11 points in round 1, 26 in round 2, but then in round 3 he bagged 2 tries and scored 72 and he made an instant $75k, talking about winning the Lotto

Chewie wrote:I wasn't going to start with David Fifita and Carrigan in my team, but the Lodge injury has helped their promotion into my squad. I may be starting with 4 Broncos this season

Got to love the Broncos

Same, I was going to have one Bronco, now I have three. Fifita's extra cost over all those 400-500k options makes things tricky though. Might be going crap centres after all.

Mulvy wrote:

Same, I was going to have one Bronco, now I have three. Fifita's extra cost over all those 400-500k options makes things tricky though. Might be going crap centres after all.

I already had crap centres so now have to find the cash elsewhere. No point doing the reshuffle until team lists/further injuries but early candidates to miss the cut from current team are Drinkwater, Brailey and Hess. Papy an outside candidate to free up bulk cash

Boozecluez wrote:Enjoying the thread so far
Pools, Wages, Politics, Player firsts, Team changes every hour .....It has everything

Now for a wall of text haha

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Just something to add which may have been touched on
Base price Rookie bench forwards V Rookie Backs

Predicting minutes let alone a rookie off the bench is tough.
The thing is if you miss these bench forwards you can pick them up easier than where a rookie back who nabs 2 tries gets expensive fast.

If you miss the back, do you buy them in the following week and hope they score a couple more tries for you, or pass on them?
You are behind the 8 ball now and your expectations are high based on this.
Common mistakes are you buy them in then they score a few low scores for you, so then you trade only for them to score high again...
We all make this mistake and you see people get frustrated when this happens to them resulting in 2 wasted trades and no $$$ gain.

Sivo is a good example here from last year.
Chances are they will get a few weeks themselves to start the year so worth a gamble each week to be honest, regardless who they are they just need pass the eye test and some luck.
If after 2-3 weeks they look like a dud, there is probably someone else you can swap out easy enough, but at least you owned a lotto ticket.

A forwards points are more reliable but they need a base amount of minutes to put up a score to give you the cash boost early on or hope for an injury or a role change.
Though it doesn't help cash generation when they score well every other week and slowly burn.
Who knows if the coach sits them on the bench most of the game the following week and kills their scoring. It doesn't effect real life much but it sure does effect Fantasy.
Sure you might start with a player for 4 weeks with a minor increase on the hope they bust a big score, but these role players are usually to run hard and make tackles so steady and slow points.
They are less likely to be on the end of a try scoring pass.
They rely on a role changes (which simply means extra minutes of more running hard and tackling) and they start scoring big because of this
Remember you can easily trade them in too once this happens as you don't get an award for all those who started with them

Mentally as well, a back plays 80mins each week so nothing really to look at further, its just a calculated gamble as their points are very boom bust. They play the same role each week, its mostly luck here.
So start with the cheap back and see what happens, you can always grab that bench forward later

Also don't be afraid of playing them in your starting WFB, you aren't paying much (Points per $$ as well) and as long as you spend the saved money elsewhere well, then they can easily score as good as a mid ranged WFB.

TLDR So start with a cheap back and see what happens, you can always grab that bench forward later and don't be afraid of starting them in CTR/WFB position to start the year

Yep good stuff Booze.

Bethany_B wrote:

Yeah fair enough on Saab. My logic with him is that I'd rather have a cheapie that can make money quickly and then be sold rather than a slow burner where possible. With the rule changes around aerial contests, I think Saab has a big advantage if he gets picked. I really don't see any better cheapies at his price point, as I already have enough slow burner forwards on my bench, I don't need another one.

I must admit I haven't read up on the rule changes. How does the new rule help players like Saab fantasy wise?

sajjos wrote:

I must admit I haven't read up on the rule changes. How does the new rule help players like Saab fantasy wise?

Previously you could tackle the attacking player in the air. Now you can't tackle anyone in the air. It's predicted tall wingers benefit from more tries because attacking high kicks will be harder to defend. I think the advantage will be minimal personally though.

Chewie wrote:

That's good stuff Booze! You're so right about missing the boat on those try scoring rookie backs, it has happened to me a few times.
Last year Sivo scored 11 points in round 1, 26 in round 2, but then in round 3 he bagged 2 tries and scored 72 and he made an instant $75k, talking about winning the Lotto

Cleaned it up a bit to make it an easier read haha
But yes, I has Ravalawa,Sivo,Garrick,Kahu,Burns.
Win some and lose some there. The other thing is knowing when to jump off too haha.

No Worries wrote:

Are you joining the leagues champ ?

Yes, just joined. Thanks. Any feedback on team?

sajjos wrote:

I must admit I haven't read up on the rule changes. How does the new rule help players like Saab fantasy wise?

From what I understand attacking players can't be tackled in the air = Kick to tall aerial player like Saab and they are a Tupou/Oates/Graham Mk2 for bottom dollar
It would be hard for too good kickers in Norman/Hunt not to kick to a tall winger like that

Iron Mike wrote:Just had another look at things trying to reduce players priced between 30 and 40 points (roughly 450K to 600K). Trying to get back to cows and guns team.

Api (493K but obvious value)
Hass (C), Carrigan
Lolo, NBrown, DFifita
Cleary (VC), Mann
Capewell, Lomax
Papenhuyzen, Drinkwater, Aekins

JWilliams (472K but obvious value if starting lock), BBrailey, Musgrove, Magoulias

Luai, Curran, Rudolf, Leleisiuao.

Looks very strong, I like the cows/guns approach. Very nice starting 13. Again, weak bench. Even if two decent base price players pop up for your 17, chances are it means that the 18-21 guys are going to be pretty terrible. But over all I don't mind it as long as a few cheapies pop up over the next couple of weeks.

Hey mate thanks for the feedback, only 15K ITB.

4x 228K players are the moment
Utiokamanu Leleisiusao Kolo Rudolf.
If Grants becomes an option, I’ll sub for Stimson.

I’m keen on a couple you mention, so a Stimson downgrade is on the cards.

Iron Mike wrote:

Not sure there will be 4 x $228k players. How much cash do you have? There may only be 1 or 2 $228k worth it, whilst you forego Musgrove, Magoulias and maybe Grant.

Don't get me wrong, I like your team.

You Lolo + Kikau + Brimson + SCrichton vs Me NBrown + Ponga + Capewell + Mann. I prefer yours but I can't have lolo due to balance of reserves.

THEGAME wrote:Hey mate thanks for the feedback, only 15K ITB.

4x 228K players are the moment
Utiokamanu Leleisiusao Kolo Rudolf.
If Grants becomes an option, I’ll sub for Stimson.

I’m keen on a couple you mention, so a Stimson downgrade is on the cards.

What are your expectations of Kikau? I don't see any improvement personally

Man you really can do wonderful things without Haas.

Friend
Merrin Carrigan
Lolo Brown Fifita
Moses Mann
Burns Lomax
Pappy Drinky Aekins

Koro, Brailey, Hess/Leilua, Luai

Nuff x4

I just like the (C) on Haas more than I do on Lolo.

Mulvy wrote:

Looks very strong, I like the cows/guns approach. Very nice starting 13. Again, weak bench. Even if two decent base price players pop up for your 17, chances are it means that the 18-21 guys are going to be pretty terrible. But over all I don't mind it as long as a few cheapies pop up over the next couple of weeks.

Yes, bench is weak but most teams will have Brailey and JWilliams. If Grant went to Tigers that would solve a dilemma. Then would just need to choose 1 from the other 5.

Some teams are playing S Crichton or Luai in 13 so don't really see the weak bench being a problem. All 17 players score.

Brailey/Leilua could become Levi/Stimson too.