NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 8

castlecrag sweethearts wrote:Made a team Haas, Smith and Friend. Makes it hard to have solid WFB/HLF but there is quite a bit a flexibility back there.

9. Cameron Smith (perpetual upside)
8. Payne Haas (I have come around I think. He is easily the best FRF. I think there is a chance he could average 70 or very close to it)
10. Patrick Carrigan (no brainer if starting lock and in the leadership team)
11. Jaydn Su'A (my pick of the South's 2RF to get 80 minutes)
12. Jack Williams (I feel he will take Gallen's role and be remarkable value)
13. Brandon Smith (I picked him at the start of the orf-season and Bethany reminded me of why. I have little doubt he will play a bigger minute than role and be great value)
6. Jarome Hughes (I am sticking solid... if I had some more coin, I may consider G, Williams instead but it is a lock in for now. May also consider Dylan Brown depending on how the Eels trial goes)
7. Ashley Taylor (certainly under-priced based based on not kicking for the first four games of last season, I think even if he comes only half-way good he will make good early cash)
3. Braydon Burns (set and forget, I hope!.... He is a solid player)
4. Mitchell Aubbuson (how could you not? Black Widow no longer. At least 12 points under-valued)
2. Scott Drinkwater (Solid pick for his price. Will benefit greatly from homes)
5. Alexander Brimson (If he stays at full back, I think I am convinced. I mean I have some doubts but he scores very well in this position)
1. Ryan Papenhuyzen (I doubt the doubt. I believe there are some people trying to outsmart less experienced players. He will also benefit Hughes a lot)

14. Jake Friend (Great POD in this position)
15. Blayke Brailey (Solid choice without Cam King there. Will do his bench job well. Score reasonably, make cash, get upgraded)
16. Jarome Luai (exactly what you want in a benchie. Exploit for rapid cash and then move on)
17. Billy Magoulias (I am confident he gets a big enough role to generate cash and perhaps even more)

Gotta take some risk to go with two massive guns and that is where the NPR comes in. Very TLT dependent. Players  will be selected for reliable cover in all positions and the potential to make cash. At the moment

Curran Walters Leleisiuao & Crichton (If I could afford Shibasaki, I would have him instead of Crichton. I think he is a safer bet and more likely to play)

Teeth Eater wrote:

Just seeing what I've seen of him and Lino, admittedly probably only over the previous two years, I find it completely inconceivable that a team would start Mann over Lino... but who knows, maybe other stuff I am not privy to as to why it's even a question, let alone looks like going the way of Mann rather than Lino.

Anyway, completely random rookie question time again;

So, for example, a player kicks from his 40m line, but the kick goes dead in goal, he still gets KM, I assume? But how many? Does he get points for 60m? Or because the ball gets brought back out for a 20m restart, does he only get points for 40m? Sorry for the stupid question, but I'm curious.

Rabbits21 wrote:
If you can give me some advice on my side I’ll give you advice on yours as I always do.

standard-issue wrote:

Hmmm, the Ash Taylor pick is very interesting.  I haven't looked at the correlation with when TRob is playing and not, so will that affect him?  Is that why Taylor didn't kick much in the early Rounds?  I haven't looked but assuming you've done a decent analysis.

MilfordTheMagician wrote:

So, literally the same as 2019?

I had him for a long period last season. He started off with some big scores, then it was horribly painful owning him for the next few weeks as he put up some awful scores.

Inconsistent is a good word to sum him up.

castlecrag sweethearts wrote:

standard-issue wrote:

Hmmm, the Ash Taylor pick is very interesting.  I haven't looked at the correlation with when TRob is playing and not, so will that affect him?  Is that why Taylor didn't kick much in the early Rounds?  I haven't looked but assuming you've done a decent analysis.

Does not seem to be too much correlation. I assumed he was protecting an injury. I just think it is a risk worth taking. I don't thin the Fan Hub tax is big enough to be a downside. Make cash then ship out to higher value HLF. I think HLF is such a difficult one. I am liking the number of potentially undervalued HLF/WFB. This makes it easy to adjust the ship with minimal trades if required.

castlecrag sweethearts wrote:Some thinking out loud about Dylan Brown as one of those picks that may be gold in hindsight.

Drifterspence wrote:Does anyone know if Matterson is playing on the same side as Moses, based on how Manu Ma'u went last year I would think whoever is on his side would be great value.

Fortitude wrote:Have decided  (for this week) g.williams will be my punt to start the year. Pretty conventional outside of that.

wolfking wrote:It's a shame what was looking like the most variation in starting teams in years has bottlenecked into all teams starting to look the same haha.

Friend
Haas Knight
Fifita Lucy Guerra
Moses Drinky
Aubbs Watkins
Papy Aekins Lomax

Koro Brailey Carrigan Luai

Mago Musgrove Crichton Keppie

Not liking playing Laui at 17.  See what happens.  Will keep Guerra if he starts.  Don't think Crichton will dethrone Naden or Whare so will have to wait until TLT.  Wouldn't mind upgrading Watkins to Suli too.  Can downgrade Guerra if he doesn't start.  54K left with this squad, not bad.  I'm sad I have to get rid of Nofo but I just think it's too risky starting with him straight off the bat.

EDIT:  Just downgraded Guerra to Williams and Watkins to Suli.

Friend
Haas Knight
Fifita Lucy Williams
Moses Drinky
Aubbs Suli
Papy Aekins Lomax

Koro Brailey Carrigan Luai

Mago Musgrove Crichton Keppie

Bethany_B wrote:Who do we think will score more?

A: Burns + Luai (with the other instance I could take Luai out of my 17 but still keep him in my squad)

B: Shibasaki + Brimson

I really want Brimson in my side (45 avg. in 70+ min games at FB last year and priced at 32), but I also really rate Burns (44 avg in games he didn't get injured in, priced at 36) and it would help cover CTR instead of relying on Shitbasaki or whichever other rookie I pick there

standard-issue wrote:

Hmmm, the Ash Taylor pick is very interesting.  I haven't looked at the correlation with when TRob is playing and not, so will that affect him?  Is that why Taylor didn't kick much in the early Rounds?  I haven't looked but assuming you've done a decent analysis.

castlecrag sweethearts wrote:

Does not seem to be too much correlation. I assumed he was protecting an injury. I just think it is a risk worth taking. I don't thin the Fan Hub tax is big enough to be a downside. Make cash then ship out to higher value HLF. I think HLF is such a difficult one. I am liking the number of potentially undervalued HLF/WFB. This makes it easy to adjust the ship with minimal trades if required.

standard-issue wrote:

I'm going to give this a good look over the next few days.

Bethany_B wrote:Who do we think will score more?

A: Burns + Luai (with the other instance I could take Luai out of my 17 but still keep him in my squad)

B: Shibasaki + Brimson

I really want Brimson in my side (45 avg. in 70+ min games at FB last year and priced at 32), but I also really rate Burns (44 avg in games he didn't get injured in, priced at 36) and it would help cover CTR instead of relying on Shitbasaki or whichever other rookie I pick there