NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 8

Milchcow wrote:
I don't have Haas (as is stands anyway), I'd be cheering if he starts with three 50s. It would be a massive failure for the price you are paying for him. If he does start with 3 sub 60 scores you wouldn't even need to rush to bring him in, you'd have a couple of weeks to plan before hi sprice started going up again.
Having him score 70+ first 3 weeks is the worry, then he'll have cracked the million and it will be quite hard to find the funds.


Conversely though, how does someone who starts with Haas bring in Taumalolo/Tedesco/Cleary/whatever gun if they start with a couple of big scores?

Rippin and Tearin wrote:I'll pose a question then - which player has more chance of an upside compared to their 3 year average? Taumalolo or Haas - genuine question.

Milchcow wrote:

3 year average is meaningless for Haas, In 2018 he played low minute bench games and averaged 11 fantasy points.

If he maintains his 2019 scoring, he is likely to drop a small amount of cash over 3 weeks

If Taumalolo scores at his 3 year average (including any injury games) he will stay at pretty much the same price.

The difference in price will come around over whichever one of them bangs out a 75+ first (and/or the first one to put out a sub 50)

Ponga Yeo the Mann wrote:I’m imagining if I go without haas I wouldn’t have him til after origin and lolo not playing origin makes this a viable strategy. Are most people thinking haas before origin is a must? Seems a bit pointless unless he’s really bottomed out by then no?

Still hoping some cheapies like Curran emerge to save me the headache/perhaps allow for variation by having other guns instead of haas

Milchcow wrote:
I don't have Haas (as is stands anyway), I'd be cheering if he starts with three 50s. It would be a massive failure for the price you are paying for him. If he does start with 3 sub 60 scores you wouldn't even need to rush to bring him in, you'd have a couple of weeks to plan before hi sprice started going up again.
Having him score 70+ first 3 weeks is the worry, then he'll have cracked the million and it will be quite hard to find the funds.

Conversely though, how does someone who starts with Haas bring in Taumalolo/Tedesco/Cleary/whatever gun if they start with a couple of big scores?

mattnz wrote:

You don’t, you buy other guns at a discount, with the odd exception like Bateman last season. Last season it was when Teddy and Ponga had price drops that they were picked up cheap. Bateman was a mis-pricing, and was clearly going to be the best center. Williams scoring 50+ each week would be the one that would make people think how they get him in

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

This is the first time I've seen someone mention Munster so I'll give my reason for avoiding him

In 4 games with Papenhuyzen at fullback Munster averaged 43.2 fantasy points compared to season average of 52.3

The stats are also backed up by the eye test. Once Papenhuyzen became fullback Melbourne started structuring their attack differently. Instead of being heavily reliant on the block play that would get Munster one on one with a poor defender on the left edge, Melbourne seemed to use him as more of a decoy with Papy getting the ball back through the middle. This involves lots of tip ons back through the inside from Munster/whoever is one off the ruck that set or even a cut out pass from hooker.

Shape A is the structure that used to be run pre Papy. Shape B is post Papy

A:



B:



tl;dr Munster was used more as a play maker than ball runner after Papy made his debut. Will this continue?

Milchcow wrote:

If I end up with Haas it will be alongside Lolo, not instead of him, which basically means killing CTR and maybe lose another gun. If looks like enough cheapies to make it viable might run it

Loomer wrote:

I've never had a draft with Haas but making me nervous some of the comments "when he goes on 20pt run that's 40pts majority has over you" plus the 2 trades including probably one of your main picks to get in. I've had Lolo since first draft and Haas instead of Lolo easiest compromise but don't want to drop Lolo

Loomer wrote:

I've never had a draft with Haas but making me nervous some of the comments "when he goes on 20pt run that's 40pts majority has over you" plus the 2 trades including probably one of your main picks to get in. I've had Lolo since first draft and Haas instead of Lolo easiest compromise but don't want to drop Lolo

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Yes and no, its really only once Haas' score goes above your own captain's choice when the points start counting for double.

If Haas goes on a 20 point run, its kinda irrelevant if he ends up scoring 60 and so does Lolo.

wolfking wrote:I always feel though saving the 100 odd K from picking Tolo over Haas comes the flipside of using that money to upgrade another player.  That too is a risk and could backfire.  I could save the money to turn Brailey into Koro but then you're still banking on Koro outscoring and being better value then Brailey.  Brailey might turn into a semi gun and Koro gets injured or doesn't perform to expectations.   I'm thinking take the conservative route in picking Haas and then not worrying over the captain issue also.  Everything is a gamble though I suppose really.

rhinoceroo wrote:

The difference is you get Lolo in at latest before the first bye, probably for Haas if Haas is playing Origin.